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Similarity Scores, 2nd cut

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  • deano@tsoft.com
    Well, I m learning that season totals are pretty good for comparisons of most things, but may not reflect what we often think about. Looking at things as a
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 13, 2001
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      Well, I'm learning that season totals are pretty good for comparisons
      of most things, but may not reflect what we often think about.
      Looking at things as a rate per game may be another good way to look
      at things. I'm not there yet, so let me summarize where I've gone
      today with player season totals. Here are the rules for player-season
      similarity scores:

      Stat Base Min Max
      G 2.5 1 5
      Min 75 50 100
      fgm 11 9 14
      fga 25 20 30
      fg% 0.001
      fg3m 2.5 2 5
      fg3a 8 6 12
      fg3% 0.1 0.003 0.15
      ftm 6 4 8
      fta 9 7 11
      ft% 0.005 0.002 0.007
      oreb 4 2 10
      dreb 11 7 25
      treb
      ast 9 6 10
      stl 2 1 3
      tov 6 4 7
      blk 2 1 3
      pf 10 8 20
      dq
      pts 30 25 60

      For every point difference of 30 over a player season, subtract 1 pt
      from 1000. For every assist difference of 9, subtract 1 pt. And so
      on. The last two columns seem like reasonable ranges over which the
      things can be changed. I didn't really mess with FG%, which I was
      pretty happy with for all players I experimented with. I really
      increased the fg3% base value because I found that I really don't put
      much weight on it. For big guys who never shoot it, it used to
      overweight the difference between a guy who went 1-2 and a guy who
      went 0-1. For small guys who shoot it all the time, I found that
      differences in fg3m and fg3a reflect differences that are relevant to
      us.

      I kept going back and forth on rebounds, too, especially when looking
      at Dennis Rodman. How could anyone be similar to this freak? So I
      weighted them more. Then I asked whether the Bulls would have won
      with Charles Oakley or Jayson Williams or Popeye Jones -- and I said,
      yes. Rodman's impact on the Bulls was not so big that he was
      irreplaceable. The Bulls did win before he got there and they won
      with other guys on the court. So if I show those other guys being
      pretty similar, that makes some sense. We can't get caught up in his
      hype.

      Ray Allen 2001:

      Player Team Season SimScore
      Allen,Ray mil 2000 920
      rice,glen mia 1995 918
      rice,glen cha 1996 899
      miller,reggie ind 1993 890
      barros,dana phi 1995 883
      drexler,clyde por 1995 872
      richmond,mitch sac 1997 872
      richmond,mitch sac 1996 872
      richmond,mitch sac 1995 861
      miller,reggie ind 1995 861
      hawkins,hersey phi 1993 859
      rice,glen mia 1992 853
      houston,allan det 1996 851
      allen,ray mil 1998 850
      rice,glen cha 1997 848
      rice,glen mia 1994 844
      porter,terry por 1993 842
      miller,reggie ind 1997 841
      porter,terry por 1992 840
      miller,reggie ind 1992 839

      Kobe 2001 (1999a = 1999 season scaled to 82 games):

      Player Team Season SimScore
      Hill,Grant det 2000 897
      bryant,kobe lal 1999a 883
      gill,kendall njn 1997 881
      carter,vince tor 2000 876
      richmond,mitch gol 1991 876
      richmond,mitch gol 1989 869
      wilkins,dominiq atl 1990 866
      Bryant,Kobe lal 2000 866
      richmond,mitch sac 1994 865
      hawkins,hersey phi 1991 863
      wilkins,dominiq lac 1994 862
      richmond,mitch sac 1992 862
      chambers,tom pho 1989 860
      drexler,clyde por 1991 858
      wilkins,dominiq atl 1991 857
      robinson,glenn mil 1997 857
      wilkins,dominiq atl 1989 857
      hawkins,hersey phi 1990 856
      campbell,tony min 1990 856
      hawkins,hersey phi 1993 854

      Shaq 2001 (much less similar):

      Player Team Season SimScore
      o'neal,shaquill orl 1995 893
      o'neal,shaquill lal 1999a 889
      O'Neal,Shaquill lal 2000 886
      o'neal,shaquill orl 1994 845
      o'neal,shaquill orl 1993 803
      duncan,tim san 1998 796
      duncan,tim san 2001 779
      o'neal,shaquill lal 1998 776
      malone,karl uta 1993 758
      duncan,tim san 1999a 756
      robinson,david san 1996 750
      robinson,david san 1995 748
      mourning,alonzo mia 1996 746
      robinson,david san 1991 744
      ewing,patrick nyk 1991 740
      olajuwon,hakeem hou 1996 740
      Mourning,Alonzo mia 2000 740
      ewing,patrick nyk 1992 736
      robinson,david san 1998 736
      ewing,patrick nyk 1990 735

      Karl Malone 1993 (Karl is like Karl, very consistent):

      Player Team Season SimScore
      malone,karl uta 1998 922
      malone,karl uta 1995 909
      malone,karl uta 1992 909
      malone,karl uta 1991 899
      malone,karl uta 1997 892
      malone,karl uta 1990 885
      malone,karl uta 1989 872
      malone,karl uta 1996 861
      malone,karl uta 1994 860
      Malone,Karl uta 2000 859
      robinson,david san 1995 846
      barkley,charles phi 1989 839
      malone,karl uta 1999a 824
      barkley,charles phi 1992 809
      barkley,charles phi 1990 809
      robinson,david san 1993 805
      robinson,david san 1991 804
      barkley,charles pho 1993 803
      robinson,david san 1996 798
      malone,karl uta 2001 790

      The freak in '98 (Dennis):

      Player Team Season SimScore
      rodman,dennis det 1993 896
      rodman,dennis chi 1997 871
      rodman,dennis chi 1996 866
      rodman,dennis san 1994 845
      jones,popeye dal 1995 828
      Feick,Jamie njn 2000 817
      lane,jerome den 1991 812
      williams,jayson njn 1996 796
      parks,cherokee van 1999a 794
      dudley,chris por 1996 791
      rodman,dennis det 1991 791
      dudley,chris por 1997 788
      brown,mike min 1994 787
      walker,darrell was 1991 780
      williams,jayson njn 1999a 779
      oakley,charles tor 1999a 778
      Simpkins,Dickey chi 2000 778
      Green,A.C. lal 2000 777
      walker,darrell det 1992 777
      green,a.c. dal 1999a 776

      rodman,dennis det 1992 714
      rodman,dennis san 1995 690
      rodman,dennis det 1990 659
      rodman,dennis det 1989 654

      Jordan 98:

      Player Team Season SimScore
      jordan,michael chi 1997 858
      wilkins,dominiq atl 1989 856
      wilkins,dominiq atl 1990 849
      jordan,michael chi 1996 844
      chambers,tom pho 1989 841
      chambers,tom pho 1990 841
      bryant,kobe lal 2001 828
      carter,vince tor 2000 828
      Hill,Grant det 2000 823
      mcgrady,tracy orl 2001 819
      wilkins,dominiq atl 1991 818
      campbell,tony min 1990 814
      mullin,chris gol 1989 812
      jordan,michael chi 1992 811
      malone,karl uta 1996 811
      gill,kendall njn 1997 802
      richmond,mitch gol 1991 800
      pierce,paul bos 2001 797
      jordan,michael chi 1993 793
      iverson,allen phi 2001 793

      Olajuwon 95:

      Player Team Season SimScore
      olajuwon,hakeem hou 1996 949
      ewing,patrick nyk 1992 906
      olajuwon,hakeem hou 1997 888
      ewing,patrick nyk 1991 887
      ewing,patrick nyk 1994 885
      olajuwon,hakeem hou 1994 874
      olajuwon,hakeem hou 1999a 874
      ewing,patrick nyk 1995 862
      ewing,patrick nyk 1993 853
      robinson,david san 1995 853
      robinson,david san 1993 852
      ewing,patrick nyk 1997 846
      duncan,tim san 1999a 841
      olajuwon,hakeem hou 1993 840
      ewing,patrick nyk 1989 840
      mourning,alonzo cha 1995 830
      olajuwon,hakeem hou 1992 826
      robinson,david san 1996 826
      Robinson,David san 2000 823
      webber,chris sac 2001 821

      Iverson 2001:

      Player Team Season SimScore
      iverson,allen phi 1999a 914
      Iverson,Allen phi 2000 884
      Stackhouse,Jerr det 2000 846
      mashburn,jamal dal 1995 814
      hawkins,hersey phi 1991 809
      richmond,mitch sac 1994 809
      jordan,michael chi 1996 798
      stackhouse,jerr det 2001 794
      jordan,michael chi 1998 793
      pierce,paul bos 2001 789
      richmond,mitch was 1999a 787
      jordan,michael chi 1997 783
      iverson,allen phi 1998 783
      gill,kendall njn 1997 782
      richmond,mitch sac 1997 781
      wilkins,dominiq atl 1993 779
      sprewell,latrel gsw 1997 779
      bryant,kobe lal 2001 778
      Marbury,Stephon njn 2000 776
      sprewell,latrel gsw 1995 776

      Magic '90:

      Player Team Season SimScore
      johnson,magic lal 1991 894
      johnson,magic lal 1989 877
      johnson,kevin pho 1992 818
      hawkins,hersey phi 1993 814
      johnson,kevin pho 1989 812
      hardaway,anfern orl 1996 812
      hawkins,hersey phi 1991 811
      porter,terry por 1990 810
      miller,reggie ind 1991 799
      porter,terry por 1989 799
      hardaway,anfern orl 1995 796
      johnson,kevin pho 1990 795
      mullin,chris gol 1990 794
      sprewell,latrel gsw 1997 793
      drexler,clyde por 1992 788
      hill,grant det 1999a 788
      francis,steve hou 2001 786
      johnson,kevin pho 1991 785
      drexler,clyde por 1991 785
      hornacek,jeff phi 1993 784

      Stockton '96:

      Player Team Season SimScore
      stockton,john uta 1997 932
      stockton,john uta 1995 931
      stockton,john uta 1994 880
      price,mark cle 1989 871
      stockton,john uta 2001 865
      porter,terry por 1991 857
      stockton,john uta 1993 855
      Stockton,John uta 2000 853
      hornacek,jeff uta 1995 843
      mullin,chris gsw 1997 841
      humphries,jay mil 1991 839
      porter,terry por 1989 837
      smith,kenny hou 1991 832
      wesley,david bos 1997 827
      floyd,sleepy hou 1989 826
      harper,derek dal 1990 824
      hornacek,jeff uta 1996 823
      stockton,john uta 1990 822
      jackson,mark lac 1993 822
      smith,kenny hou 1993 818


      I'll try to post the spreadsheet with calculations so you can
      calculate yourself.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
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