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Re: SABR/Sports Econ update

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  • John Hollinger
    The Spurs also used a late second-rounder on Luis Scola, who hasn t made the jump yet but is one of the best players in Europe. It s a bit unfair holding L.A.
    Message 1 of 52 , Aug 5, 2003
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      The Spurs also used a late second-rounder on Luis Scola, who hasn't
      made the jump yet but is one of the best players in Europe. It's a
      bit unfair holding L.A. to that standard because the Spurs' drafts
      have been unbelievable, but it shows that you can get players late if
      you do your homework.

      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@h...>
      wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "doc319" <doc319@y...> wrote:
      > > For what it's worth, drafting out of the lottery is
      > > pretty much hit or miss even for the Spurs--sure they snagged
      > > Parker, but in recent years they have also drafted Leon Smith and
      > > John Salmons in the first round.
      >
      > In the name of accuracy, blaming the Spurs for whatever problems
      > Smith and Salmons may or may not have is pretty unfair, given that
      > both of them were traded before draft night was over. That's a bit
      > like crediting Bob Whitsitt for drafting Scottie Pippen (and thus
      > ignoring the fact that he traded Pippen for Olden Polynice minutes
      > later).
      >
      > I use my VORP rating to create baseline expectations for each slot
      > in the draft, based on the overall quality of the draft. Using that
      > method, the Lakers' recent picks rate as follows:
      >
      > 2002 - Kareem Rush, 20: -74
      > 2000 - Mark Madsen, 29: -6
      > 1999 - Devean George, 23: -25
      >
      > San Antonio has only picked (and kept) Parker (+55) in the first
      > round in that stretch, but also took Gordan Giricek (+7) and
      Emanuel
      > Ginobili (+16). Giricek was also traded, of course, but I count him
      > because he was not chosen with the express intent of trading him.
      > Ginobili's development made him expendable.
    • igor eduardo küpfer
      ... From: Gary Collard To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 12:13 PM Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] SABR/Sports Econ update ... That
      Message 52 of 52 , Aug 8, 2003
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        ----- Original Message -----
        Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 12:13 PM
        Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] SABR/Sports Econ update

        Jim Armstrong wrote:
        >
        > On Mon, Aug 04, 2003 at 04:00:38PM -0500, Gary Collard wrote:
        > > I'm not sure why that was so controversial.  The concept of market size in
        > > the NFL is pretty much meaningless, since most league revenue is shared
        > > equally.  The reason that a Yankees in baseball have such an advantage is
        > > that they have local TV revenues that are an order of magnitude or more
        > > greater than most (all?) of the other teams and is significant compared to
        > > national revenue, thus they can afford to have a payroll that is 60%
        > > greater than any other team even before they pay the luxury tax as they do
        > > in 2003.  In the NFL, there is no local TV at all, and (over a period of
        > > years, letting spikes in bonus payments wash out) little payroll deviation,
        >
        > Actually, if you look at the distribution of team player payrolls, the NFL
        > and the NBA are quite comparable (see standard deviation in data below).

        That is why I specifically said "over a period of years, letting spikes in
        bonus payments wash out" in the case of the NFL.  The one year payroll
        numbers you listed are meaningless to my point, do you have the data to run
        them for the last 5 years or more?  That will tell you who has the "harder"
        cap.

        --
        Gary Collard
        Maybe the coefficient of variation (SD / Mean * 100) is a more apt measure for comparing the variation of payrolls for different sports across seasons.
         
        Year     NHL     NFL     NBA     MLB
        1994    28.3     8.7    15.2    26.6
        1995    26.6    12.7    24.1    27.7
        1996    43.3    11.9    21.9    31.4
        1997    #N/A    15.3    28.9    33.0
        1998    #N/A    12.1    27.0    37.4
        1999    33.4    12.0    23.0    43.1
        2000    37.4    13.8    23.6    38.3
        2001    31.1    13.5    24.6    38.3
        2002    33.0    18.1    20.6    36.6
        2003    35.9    #N/A    24.0    38.9
         
        On this measure, NBA teams show less variation in payroll than baseball and hockey teams, but the NFL teams are more level than any of them.

        Data from Rodney Fort's excellent resource: http://users.pullman.com/rodfort/SportsBusiness/BizFrame.htm
         
        ed
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