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Re: SABR/Sports Econ update

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  • John Hollinger
    Not surprising on specialization. I think you would find the same thing in football or basketball. Unfortunately you almost have to specialize to keep up with
    Message 1 of 52 , Aug 4, 2003
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      Not surprising on specialization. I think you would find the same
      thing in football or basketball. Unfortunately you almost have to
      specialize to keep up with everything these days. To add a personal
      example, I loved the NHL as a kid but now I watch maybe five games a
      year.



      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
      wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gary Collard <collardg@e...>
      > wrote:
      > > Dean Oliver wrote:
      > > >
      > > > Organizational economics: [...]
      > > > Why do the Packers have such great success as
      > > > a small market team? One prominent voice suggested that the
      > Packers are not a small market, but that
      > > > rubbed a few people wrong (like changing the definition of
      values
      > to fit the theory).
      > >
      > > I'm not sure why that was so controversial. The concept of
      market
      > size in
      > > the NFL is pretty much meaningless, since most league revenue is
      > shared
      > > equally.
      >
      > Come to think of it, I'm surprised this wasn't raised either. The
      > economists definitely know all about the financial arrangements in
      > the NFL, how much money is shared, yet this came up as an issue.
      > Basically, there was a lot of disagreement over a theory about how
      to
      > make a league competitive that it branched out of baseball to
      > football.
      >
      > > The reason that a Yankees in baseball have such an advantage is
      > > that they have local TV revenues that are an order of magnitude
      or
      > more
      > > greater than most (all?) of the other teams and is significant
      > compared to
      > > national revenue, thus they can afford to have a payroll that is
      60%
      > > greater than any other team even before they pay the luxury tax
      as
      > they do
      > > in 2003.
      >
      > As we discussed there, the tax pretty much is just a Yankee tax.
      I'm
      > surprised, though, that the Mets don't get as large a contract.
      >
      > > much as the NFL, and with large but somewhat controlled payroll
      > > differences. I really don't think you can directly apply the
      > economic
      > > lessons of any one league to the others.
      >
      > I think the goal is to do just that, though. Baseball has been
      > deemed as having a competitive balance problem. How can you make
      it
      > so that they do not have as significant a financial advantage over
      > everyone else? How can you keep the Montreals of the world from
      > disappearing? It would be rather odd for a team to fold in such a
      > well-established league, but that is what contraction is about.
      >
      > You're right, too, about the other note -- sabr guys are pretty
      > hardcore baseball. 70-80% of them at least. There are some hoops
      > coaches and some crossover guys that I talked to. Bill James
      himself
      > is a big KU hoops fan.
      >
      > DeanO
    • igor eduardo küpfer
      ... From: Gary Collard To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 12:13 PM Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] SABR/Sports Econ update ... That
      Message 52 of 52 , Aug 8, 2003
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        ----- Original Message -----
        Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 12:13 PM
        Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] SABR/Sports Econ update

        Jim Armstrong wrote:
        >
        > On Mon, Aug 04, 2003 at 04:00:38PM -0500, Gary Collard wrote:
        > > I'm not sure why that was so controversial.  The concept of market size in
        > > the NFL is pretty much meaningless, since most league revenue is shared
        > > equally.  The reason that a Yankees in baseball have such an advantage is
        > > that they have local TV revenues that are an order of magnitude or more
        > > greater than most (all?) of the other teams and is significant compared to
        > > national revenue, thus they can afford to have a payroll that is 60%
        > > greater than any other team even before they pay the luxury tax as they do
        > > in 2003.  In the NFL, there is no local TV at all, and (over a period of
        > > years, letting spikes in bonus payments wash out) little payroll deviation,
        >
        > Actually, if you look at the distribution of team player payrolls, the NFL
        > and the NBA are quite comparable (see standard deviation in data below).

        That is why I specifically said "over a period of years, letting spikes in
        bonus payments wash out" in the case of the NFL.  The one year payroll
        numbers you listed are meaningless to my point, do you have the data to run
        them for the last 5 years or more?  That will tell you who has the "harder"
        cap.

        --
        Gary Collard
        Maybe the coefficient of variation (SD / Mean * 100) is a more apt measure for comparing the variation of payrolls for different sports across seasons.
         
        Year     NHL     NFL     NBA     MLB
        1994    28.3     8.7    15.2    26.6
        1995    26.6    12.7    24.1    27.7
        1996    43.3    11.9    21.9    31.4
        1997    #N/A    15.3    28.9    33.0
        1998    #N/A    12.1    27.0    37.4
        1999    33.4    12.0    23.0    43.1
        2000    37.4    13.8    23.6    38.3
        2001    31.1    13.5    24.6    38.3
        2002    33.0    18.1    20.6    36.6
        2003    35.9    #N/A    24.0    38.9
         
        On this measure, NBA teams show less variation in payroll than baseball and hockey teams, but the NFL teams are more level than any of them.

        Data from Rodney Fort's excellent resource: http://users.pullman.com/rodfort/SportsBusiness/BizFrame.htm
         
        ed
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