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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: SABR/Sports Econ update

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  • Gary Collard
    ... They are almost nonexistent for offensive players, but there are a fair number of pitchers who take steps forward relatively late. I m not sure how much
    Message 1 of 52 , Aug 4, 2003
      Michael Tamada wrote:
      >
      > Baseball of course sees players such as Sosa or Jamie Moyer
      > (made the all-star game for the first time this year -- as
      > a 40-year old. Only Satchel Paige was older for his first
      > all-star game, and in Paige's case that was due to
      > segregation, not due to lack of ability at a younger age.)
      > Players who experience big improvements late in their
      > careers. But these improvements seem to be rarer, and
      > smaller, for baseball players than for basketball players.

      They are almost nonexistent for offensive players, but there are a fair
      number of pitchers who take steps forward relatively late. I'm not sure
      how much of that is due to the fact that so many of them miss a year or
      more at times, especially early on in their careers, to injury, and how
      much is due to the fact that one can add a pitch to their repertoire (or a
      substance to the ball, as has been rumored with Moyer) to tyake a late step
      forward. I think there is an analogue between pitcher control and hoops
      shooting, where some guys can improve their mechanics and/or improve with
      repetition, and some just never will no matter what they tweak or hwo hard
      they work.

      --
      Gary Collard
      SABR-L Moderator
      collardg@...
    • igor eduardo küpfer
      ... From: Gary Collard To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 12:13 PM Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] SABR/Sports Econ update ... That
      Message 52 of 52 , Aug 8, 2003
         
        ----- Original Message -----
        Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 12:13 PM
        Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] SABR/Sports Econ update

        Jim Armstrong wrote:
        >
        > On Mon, Aug 04, 2003 at 04:00:38PM -0500, Gary Collard wrote:
        > > I'm not sure why that was so controversial.  The concept of market size in
        > > the NFL is pretty much meaningless, since most league revenue is shared
        > > equally.  The reason that a Yankees in baseball have such an advantage is
        > > that they have local TV revenues that are an order of magnitude or more
        > > greater than most (all?) of the other teams and is significant compared to
        > > national revenue, thus they can afford to have a payroll that is 60%
        > > greater than any other team even before they pay the luxury tax as they do
        > > in 2003.  In the NFL, there is no local TV at all, and (over a period of
        > > years, letting spikes in bonus payments wash out) little payroll deviation,
        >
        > Actually, if you look at the distribution of team player payrolls, the NFL
        > and the NBA are quite comparable (see standard deviation in data below).

        That is why I specifically said "over a period of years, letting spikes in
        bonus payments wash out" in the case of the NFL.  The one year payroll
        numbers you listed are meaningless to my point, do you have the data to run
        them for the last 5 years or more?  That will tell you who has the "harder"
        cap.

        --
        Gary Collard
        Maybe the coefficient of variation (SD / Mean * 100) is a more apt measure for comparing the variation of payrolls for different sports across seasons.
         
        Year     NHL     NFL     NBA     MLB
        1994    28.3     8.7    15.2    26.6
        1995    26.6    12.7    24.1    27.7
        1996    43.3    11.9    21.9    31.4
        1997    #N/A    15.3    28.9    33.0
        1998    #N/A    12.1    27.0    37.4
        1999    33.4    12.0    23.0    43.1
        2000    37.4    13.8    23.6    38.3
        2001    31.1    13.5    24.6    38.3
        2002    33.0    18.1    20.6    36.6
        2003    35.9    #N/A    24.0    38.9
         
        On this measure, NBA teams show less variation in payroll than baseball and hockey teams, but the NFL teams are more level than any of them.

        Data from Rodney Fort's excellent resource: http://users.pullman.com/rodfort/SportsBusiness/BizFrame.htm
         
        ed
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