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Re: Worst Ever Offense?

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  • John Hollinger
    I have the Nuggets rated as the worst offense of recent history. Relative to the league average in offensive efficiency, as I measure it, they are far, far
    Message 1 of 4 , Jul 26, 2003
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      I have the Nuggets rated as the worst offense of recent history.
      Relative to the league average in offensive efficiency, as I measure
      it, they are far, far worse than even the 99 Bulls.



      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "schtevie2003" <schtevie@h...>
      wrote:
      > I am not sure exactly what is being computed when you subtract
      > offensive ratings from defensive rating and get values in the 90s.
      > Effectively this represents average victory margins per some
      > standardized possession, no? So shouldn't the range of values
      > be in the tenths? Whatever.
      >
      > Regarding the extrapolation of missing stats, in terms of overall
      > league averages on a year to year basis, it is reasonable (for
      > getting "close" to the correct answer) to extrapolate rebounding
      > percentages, as that trend is pretty much non-trending. As for
      > turnovers, it is pretty clear that this propensity was trending
      down
      > over time and, hence, filling in the pre-1974 values for this data
      > series is largely guesswork.
      >
      > That said, if one uses what I have argued is the preferred
      > definition of offensive productivity - what I call "points per
      > common possession" - in the denominator, which represents
      > the possession variable, turnovers are ofcourse included and
      > offensive rebounds are subtracted, and these terms are typically
      > of equal value. So in terms of a quick and dirty bottom line,
      using
      > just shots and reboundable freethrow attempts as an
      > approximation of total possessions is a decent proxy that gets
      > worse as one goes back in time from 1974.
      >
      > *****************
      >
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
      > <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
      > > I was looking at the offensive ratings over time, and I came up
      > with the 10
      > > worst since 1974:
      > >
      > > 1 CHI_1999 90.7
      > > 2 NYN_1977 91.1
      > > 3 NOJ_1975 91.3
      > > 4 DEN_2003 91.4
      > > 5 PHI_1974 91.8
      > > 6 CHI_2000 92.6
      > > 7 CHI_1976 92.9
      > > 8 NJ_1978 93.6
      > > 9 GS_1998 93.9
      > > 10 CAP_1974 94.0
      > >
      > > Now, that's a pretty crappy list of teams, but somehow it just
      > didn't seem
      > > crappy enough. I thought to myself, well, what really matters
      > isn't how bad
      > > the offense is, but how much the offense is worse than the
      > defense. So,
      > > subtracting offensive rating from defensive rating, I came up
      > with the
      > > following list:
      > >
      > > 1 DAL_1993 97.6
      > > 2 DEN_1998 97.2
      > > 3 LAC_2000 96.2
      > > 4 VAN_1997 98.6
      > > 5 HOU_1983 95.3
      > > 6 MIA_1989 96.0
      > > 7 LAC_1987 99.6
      > > 8 VAN_1996 96.0
      > > 9 PHI_1996 100.5
      > > 10 CHI_1999 90.7
      > >
      > > Again, those teams were bad, but none of those teams (except
      > for Chicago)
      > > had an offensive rating that looks truly horrible. I decided to
      > standardize
      > > the offensive ratings to the league average that year. I got this:
      > >
      > > 1 DEN_2003 91.4
      > > 2 CHI_2000 92.6
      > > 3 CHI_1999 90.7
      > > 4 LAC_1988 95.6
      > > 5 DAL_1993 97.6
      > > 6 VAN_1996 96.0
      > > 7 DET_1981 96.5
      > > 8 NYN_1977 91.1
      > > 9 NJ_1978 93.6
      > > 10 MIA_1989 96.0
      > >
      > > That's a little more like it. Denver's offense, at 91.4 points
      > scored for
      > > every 100 possessions, was nearly 3 standard deviations from
      > the league
      > > average of 102. Seems a little odd, considering the number of
      > exciting
      > > young players, but the Numbers Never Lie.
      > >
      > > All of this was just to pass the time. But a more serious
      > question arose: I
      > > only used teams from the 1974 season onward, because
      > that's the point at
      > > which we have complete data. I wondered: has anybody come
      > up with a way to
      > > estimate missing data? Or maybe a simpler question, is there
      > a reliable way
      > > to estimate possessions by using available teams stats? I
      > was going to see
      > > how much error I got using FGA + .4 * FTA, but I wanted to
      > know if anyone's
      > > tried this first so I don't have to reinvent the wheel.
      > >
      > > ed
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