I was using a scaled replacement level when I was woring on my NBA stuff
last year. Replacement level for a player that played very little was about
league average. Replacement level for a player that played ALOT was
proportionately a bit lower (per minute). If the Knicks had to replace
Sprewell's minutes for a whole season - they'd expect a lower performance
per minute in that replacement than if they had to replace Ward's. I liked
the results a bit better than a straight across the board replacement level.
>From: "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@...>
>Subject: [APBR_analysis] More from Baseball Prospectus . . .
>Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2003 20:03:14 -0000
>What I found really fascinating from Baseball Prospectus lately was
>"Redefining Replacement Level". The author, Nate Silver, agrees with
>our own Dan that replacement level depends on a player's playing
>time. It's different to replace a guy playing 2000 minutes than one
>The difference? Where Dan thinks we should apply a lower replacement
>standard because no single player is likely to fill that large of a
>role and you'd have to stretch to find a couple of scrap-heap types
>(at least I think that's what your argument is; feel free to jump in
>here and correct me), Silver thinks it should go up as playing time
>increases, because time makes it easier to find a replacement - not
>necessarily a scrap-heap guy, but maybe a player unwanted elsewhere.
>I'm not really sure how much of a parallel can be drawn between
>replacement level in the NBA and MLB. The processes for acquiring
>players are so different. For the most part, the replacement in the
>NBA is probably going to come from the end of the bench/the injured
>list, which is the thinking I'm generally basing my concept of
>replacement player on. At the same time, there are hundreds of
>players in the NBDL and other minor leagues that are free to anyone.
>That's a vast difference from baseball, where basically everyone of
>any talent is under somebody's control.
>I'm not sure what to think - no tidy conclusion, as Silver notes -
>but the article certainly made me pause and think when I read it
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