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Re: Digest Number 506

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... would ... assumption ... points ... evidence ... It is ... between ... But ... drop ... that ... Where did James do this? You re making the same point
    Message 1 of 2 , Jun 26, 2003
      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Dean Carrano <dean@m...> wrote:
      > Bill James has debunked that study (which btw "showed" that Cobb
      would
      > hit like .260 today, not .330). It's based on the incorrect
      assumption
      > that players don't hit worse as they age. i.e., if Cobb hits 50
      points
      > lower in 1915 than he did in 1905, that this can be taken as
      evidence
      > that the league is better, not that evidence that Cobb is worse.
      It is
      > true that when you look at GROUPS of players, the differences
      between
      > the hitting levels of different age groups is remarkably small.
      But
      > this is only because those players who don't keep hitting tend to
      drop
      > out of the group altogether. I think it's exceedingly unlikely
      that
      > this study has anything of use to offer to anybody.

      Where did James do this? You're making the same point that MikeT
      made and that I very grossly tried to compensate for in the FG%
      study. I'm not sure that this is a flaw that can't be compensated in
      other ways, but I can't say I see how.

      DeanO
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