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Re: Individual workouts

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... TV is, ... through shooting ... doesn t really ... range ... high hopes ... that he s ... players) in a ... everyone who ... to be the ... much everyone
    Message 1 of 7 , Jun 21, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, bchaikin@a... wrote:
      > LeBron James -- The basic question that remains from seeing him on
      TV is,
      > What can this guy do against NBA quality defense? Running him
      through shooting
      > drills as the Cavs did yesterday seems like a waste of time. It
      doesn't really
      > answer significant questions unless they felt that his open long
      range
      > shooting was in doubt, something I have heard a little about.
      >
      > again, the big key as to why everyone up here in NE Ohio has such
      high hopes
      > for lebron is not that he dominated high school competition - but
      that he's
      > played plenty against top level competition (good college and pro
      players) in a
      > number of venues - summer leagues, pick up games, etc, such that
      everyone who
      > has seen him play - from casual fans to pro scouts - believes him
      to be the
      > "real" deal. and with the espn's of the world out there, pretty
      much everyone
      > has seen him play...

      Hadn't heard he'd played against such quality. But there really is
      no doubt in anyone's mind (that I've talked to) that he will be
      outstanding. The question is when and I'd like to understand that a
      bit to know what to do with guys like Davis and Wagner. Is he going
      to dominate 1 on 1 right now? What about 1 on 2?

      >
      > you don't have to play against a guy that much to know just how
      good he is -

      Another discussion I had in Seattle was that how "good" a guy is --
      that's not everything. It was good to hear from someone else
      official because I've been seeing this for a while. Unless you're
      awesome, you have a role to fit into and if you're "good" but don't
      fit the role you need to play, it's hard to play you. LeBron
      is "awesome", so this isn't a big deal. If he somehow turns out to
      be less than awesome (Isaiah Rider), then he's left without a role he
      knows how to fill.

      > once you know that its the other questions, like is he a good
      person, can he
      > stay out of trouble, will he do drugs, who does he hang out with
      (who his
      > friends are), that are important - anything that could possibly
      take away from his
      > efforts on the floor need to be addressed. plus does he have the
      dedication to
      > be a star...

      I think dedication is a big one. The others -- can we point to
      specific players where they really mattered? Iverson gets in tons of
      trouble, hangs out with the so-called wrong people, and I ain't
      bettin' anything on the drug thing. Has this hurt AI or is this just
      a culture clash?

      >
      > no player is going to come into the nba at age 19 and be a star
      shooter.
      > christ even michael jordan was criticized early about his shooting,
      even when he
      > was scoring 28 pts/g as a rookie and 30+pts/g just 2-3 years later
      (again who
      > cares if you're not the games best shooter when you are scoring
      like that). the
      > best example for a lebron analogy would have to be kobe. everyone
      who saw him
      > as a 19 year old knew he had the tools to be a star, the only
      question was
      > dediction and staying out of trouble.

      There were questions of strength and whether he would ever be able to
      hit that jumper. He had small hands and still does. He's clearly
      overcome it. LeBron has big hands.


      > i certainly don't expect much from lebron in his first year or two -
      again
      > he's very young. but if he stays healthy and gets the minutes, like
      kobe did, i
      > don't think there is any question in anyone's mind that in 3-4
      years he'll be
      > a star, barring unforseen circumstances (injury, drugs, etc). the
      only
      > question is just how good or great he will be. plus he'll be -
      again barring injury -
      > playing on a team with a bonafide nba center (ilgauskas), a decent
      young
      > power forward (boozer), and a gunning sg with a long term contract
      (r.davis). so
      > there won't be as much pressure on him (there will still be alot
      i'm sure) as
      > if he really was the only decent playing on a losing team that had
      no good
      > players...

      I actually do expect a lot from LeBron this year. More precisely, I
      expect more from the Cavs. In the weak East, playoffs are a
      possibility. They should have been better this year. There are a
      couple statistical signs that they tanked this year to get LeBron.
      Kinda pissed me off that they got him over Denver, which definitely
      did play pretty hard but had no talent. (You could say that Denver
      started tanking the year before by trading away their talent, but
      Bzdelik had them working hard this year.)

      DeanO
    • harlanzo
      ... I ... LeBron. The thing is with Lebron is he will be 18/19 next year and there have not really been any great 18 yr olds and only a few great 19 yr olds.
      Message 2 of 7 , Jun 21, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
        wrote:

        > I actually do expect a lot from LeBron this year. More precisely,
        I
        > expect more from the Cavs. In the weak East, playoffs are a
        > possibility. They should have been better this year. There are a
        > couple statistical signs that they tanked this year to get
        LeBron.


        The thing is with Lebron is he will be 18/19 next year and there
        have not really been any great 18 yr olds and only a few great 19 yr
        olds. Lebron has a man's body so he might do better than most but
        look at the list of teenaged nbaers:



        Player Season Age MPG PPG RPG APG FG%
        Darryl Dawkins 75-76 18 4.5 2.4 1.3 0.1 0.501
        Bill Willoughby 75-76 18 14.1 4.7 4.6 0.5 0.398
        Moses Malone 74-75(A) 19 38.6 18.8 14.6 1.1 0.571
        Shawn Kemp 89-90 20 13.8 6.5 4.3 0.3 0.479
        Kevin Garnett 95-96 19 28.7 10.4 6.3 1.8 0.491
        Kobe Bryant 96-97 18 15.5 7.6 1.9 1.3 0.417
        Jermaine O'Neal 96-97 18 10.2 4.1 2.8 0.2 0.451
        Tracy McGrady 97-98 18 18.4 7.1 4.2 1.5 0.451
        Rashard Lewis 98-99 19 7.3 2.4 1.3 0.2 0.365
        Al Harrington 98-99 18 7.6 2.1 1.9 0.2 0.321
        Jon Bender 99-00 18 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.329
        Darius Miles 00-01 19 26.3 9.4 5.9 1.2 0.505
        Deshawn Stevenson 00-01 19 7.3 2.2 0.7 0.5 0.341
        Kwame Brown 01-o2 19 14.3 4.5 3.5 0.8 0.387
        Tyson Chandler 01-o2 19 19.6 6.1 4.8 0.8 0.497
        Eddy Curry 01-o2 19 16.1 6.7 3.8 0.3 0.501
        Desagana Diop 01-o2 19 6.1 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.414
        Amare Stoudemire 02-o3 20 31.5 13.4 8.9 0.9 0.471

        I know the list is a bit hard to read so you can link to an article
        I wrote on the subject with a legible table:

        http://www.hoopsanalyst.com/amare.htm
        (not meant to be as shameless a plug at it seems)

        anyway, the upshot is outside of Moses in the ABA, no teenager has
        been great his first year. Lebron may be force-fed the ball so he
        may buck the trend but past precedent is not in his favor.
      • bchaikin@aol.com
        talking about lebron james: If he somehow turns out to be less than awesome (Isaiah Rider).... if you read lenny wilkens autobiography ( Unguarded ,
        Message 3 of 7 , Jun 21, 2003
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          talking about lebron james:

          If he somehow turns out to be less than awesome (Isaiah Rider)....

          if you read lenny wilkens' autobiography ("Unguarded", copyright2000), you'll get a 1st hand perspective of what it was like to have to coach j.r. rider. in a word - unpleasant. selfish, certainly not team oriented, no defense. a hard worker, but strictly for his own personal goals and not those of the team, and not one to take instruction let alone direction from a coach. everything i have seen and/or heard about lebron to date is just the opposite. lets hope (at least from the cavaliers' perspective) that's the case...

          There were questions of strength and whether he would ever be able to hit that jumper.

          i remember this being said about kobe bryant. but if you've seen lebron james play, you'd know he has what appears to be classic form on his J. plus he appears to be a good shooter for a 6'8" player, and i don't mean glen rice form. i mean a player who can shoot a jumper but also create his own shot and get to the basket like he was a guard. if this kid was to get four years of seasoning in a good college program, he'd be the envy of the whole planet. as it is he'll get that seasoning in the nba, and 2-3 years should be enough....

          I actually do expect a lot from LeBron this year.  More precisely, I expect more from the Cavs.

          i sure hope you're right but in all honesty i think you're dreaming. we're talking about a team that won all of 17 games last year and got outscored by a huge 9.6 points per game, by far the worst point differential in the league last year and also the worst point differential in the league by a team in six seasons (since the 97-98 nuggets). add to that the fact that the cavs haven't won more than 32 games in the last 4 years, and have consecutively lost more games each season in these past four seasons (32, 30, 29, and 17). if they won 30 games in 03-04 i'd be happy, 35 and i'd be ecstatic. anything better than that would be gravy. i don't think there's any chance a 19 year old kid could have the same effect on a pro team like a larry bird or david robinson - someone who could turn a team completely around. those two had far more seasoning under their respective belts...

          i'm guessing they'll slip james right into the small forward spot and just plain leave him there, alongside ilgauskas, boozer, ricky davis, and god know who at pg, maybe wagner (the rumor here is they are looking to acquire a veteran pg for 25-30 min/g to ease any ball-handling responsibilities to james slowly). with ilgauskas and davis being looked upon for scoring, boozer for defense and rebounding, and hopefully a point guard no worse than henry bibby in his prime, james should be able to progress on his own and not be looked upon to take over games in his rookie year. hopefully he'll have his moments though...

          bob chaikin
          bchaikin@...










        • Dean Oliver
          ... copyright2000), you ll ... j.r. rider. ... defense. a ... of the team, ... everything i ... lets hope ... Let s hope from everyone s perspective that s the
          Message 4 of 7 , Jun 22, 2003
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            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, bchaikin@a... wrote:
            >
            > talking about lebron james:
            >
            > If he somehow turns out to be less than awesome (Isaiah Rider)....
            >
            > if you read lenny wilkens' autobiography ("Unguarded",
            copyright2000), you'll
            > get a 1st hand perspective of what it was like to have to coach
            j.r. rider.
            > in a word - unpleasant. selfish, certainly not team oriented, no
            defense. a
            > hard worker, but strictly for his own personal goals and not those
            of the team,
            > and not one to take instruction let alone direction from a coach.
            everything i
            > have seen and/or heard about lebron to date is just the opposite.
            lets hope
            > (at least from the cavaliers' perspective) that's the case...
            >

            Let's hope from everyone's perspective that's the case. Paul Silas
            was probably a good hire there, but I dunno for sure.

            >
            > i sure hope you're right but in all honesty i think you're
            dreaming.

            As you pointed out, they have some good talent there.

            What also appears to have happened is that they tanked a lot of the
            season.

            They have several prominent young players who are likely to get
            better, including Boozer, Davis, Miles (whose season was a HUGE
            dropoff from his Clipper days), and (maybe) Wagner.

            > we're
            > talking about a team that won all of 17 games last year and got
            outscored by a
            > huge 9.6 points per game, by far the worst point differential in
            the league
            > last year and also the worst point differential in the league by a
            team in six
            > seasons (since the 97-98 nuggets). add to that the fact that the
            cavs haven't
            > won more than 32 games in the last 4 years, and have consecutively
            lost more
            > games each season in these past four seasons (32, 30, 29, and 17).

            Not a sustainable pattern.

            > if they won 30
            > games in 03-04 i'd be happy, 35 and i'd be ecstatic. anything
            better than
            > that would be gravy.

            Dumb luck gets them to a 25 win season. Not sure what the over/under
            will be on the Cavs this coming year, but if it's 25, I take the over.

            > i don't think there's any chance a 19 year old kid could
            > have the same effect on a pro team like a larry bird or david
            robinson - someone
            > who could turn a team completely around. those two had far more
            seasoning
            > under their respective belts...

            Look at the comparisons, though, between Bird's Boston team and
            Robinson's Spurs team. You've pointed them out yourself. A series
            of ever worsening years, some decent young and old talent. I'll note
            also that the teams also got new coaches around that time (not a
            surprise with ever worsening teams). I'll note that the defenses on
            those teams before the arrival of the saviors were horrible, at their
            peak worst right before the arrival (Cleveland was pretty equally bad
            in '02 and '03, however). I also wouldn't doubt that the Cavs trade
            one of their young guys with potential to get an older guy who helps
            right away.

            >
            > i'm guessing they'll slip james right into the small forward spot
            and just
            > plain leave him there, alongside ilgauskas, boozer, ricky davis,
            and god know
            > who at pg, maybe wagner (the rumor here is they are looking to
            acquire a veteran
            > pg for 25-30 min/g to ease any ball-handling responsibilities to
            james
            > slowly).

            ...like I said...

            > with ilgauskas and davis being looked upon for scoring, boozer for
            defense
            > and rebounding, and hopefully a point guard no worse than henry
            bibby in his
            > prime, james should be able to progress on his own and not be
            looked upon to
            > take over games in his rookie year. hopefully he'll have his
            moments though...

            I don't know James all that well. I didn't see him as much on TV as
            others. What I saw was exceptional. But, more relevantly for the
            Cavs, what I see in their numbers, in the pattern of the season, is a
            team that should not have been so bad last year and is primed to get
            better with a small infusion of talent. They are getting a big
            infusion of talent.

            So who in the East is going to take the dive as a result? Haven't
            thought through that yet. If it's New Orleans, though, look for
            Silas to get a few votes for Coach of the Year even though he has
            King James.

            DeanO
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