Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: streaks

Expand Messages
  • Dean Oliver
    ... Given the extra work I did to evaluate the odds of a x% team having a streak of a certain type, I figured I d go back to this post and post the actual odds
    Message 1 of 6 , Aug 29, 2001
    View Source
    • 0 Attachment
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Grasso" <johng@s...> wrote:

      Given the extra work I did to evaluate the odds of a x% team having a
      streak of a certain type, I figured I'd go back to this post and post
      the actual odds of such a streak occurring. Low values, less than 5%,
      are considered pretty unusual.

      >
      > Cleveland - 15-67 for the season
      > 0-15 start (96.6%)
      > 1-0 (100%)
      > 0-12 (99.9%)
      > 1-0
      > 0-7
      > 1-0
      > 0-3
      > 2-0
      > 0-7
      > 6-4 (25%)
      > 4-19 finish
      >

      Nothing statistically unusual here. Even the 6-4 streak isn't that
      unusual for such a team.

      >
      > Detroit 12-1 start (29%)
      > 0-6 (48%)
      > 11-7
      > 11-2
      > 11-21 finish (55%)
      > 45-37 season
      >

      Nothing weird here either.

      > San Diego 23-20 start
      > 1-16 (1.3%)
      > 8-2
      > 1-4
      > 7-0 finish (all home games) (39%)
      > 40-42 season
      >

      The 1-16 run was weird. Everything else is normal.

      > Portland finished season
      > 5-0 (35%)
      > 2-14 (94%)
      > 5-0 (35%)
      > 29-53 season

      The odds of having 2 5-0 streaks is only 7%, so that may be a little
      weird. Otherwise, nothing statistically unusual.

      This really points out the old Tversky research that the mind
      perceives streaks a lot faster than stats would suggest they are
      really happening. Basically, if your mediocre team wins 5 or 7 in a
      row, it may not mean anything. It happens a lot to mediocre teams, as
      John pointed out here.

      I even ran the numbers on the 69-13 Lakers that won 33 straight. The
      likelihood of a random 69-13 team winning 33 straight is 15%, not that
      unusual for such a good team. It was more unusual to have a team that
      good throughout the season. This basically proves that the
      Lakers didn't win 69 by fluke. A 60-22 team wins 33 straight only
      0.17% of the time. A 65-17 teams wins 33 straight only in 2.3% of
      their seasons. What was the Bulls longest streak in their 72 win
      season? (Interestingly, I calculate that they had about a 50% chance
      of having a run of 33-0 in that season.)

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
    Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.