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playoff turnover machines

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  • Mike G
    Using a trial-and-error formula I devised a couple years ago, I decided to see where the Spurs Stephen Jackson ranked among all postseason players in
    Message 1 of 1 , Jun 17, 2003
      Using a trial-and-error formula I devised a couple years ago, I
      decided to see where the Spurs' Stephen Jackson ranked among all
      postseason players in turnovers/(TO expected).

      The formula is .08*sco + .07*reb + .16*ast + .05*stl + .10*blk -

      The terms 'sco', 'reb', etc are my own 'standardized' rates; mpg is
      minutes per game.

      It seems intuitively odd that blocks and rebounds should be
      statistically correlated to turnovers; but they are. Rebounds do
      infer possession of the ball (thus, you can lose it). But I don't
      know why they are so close to scoring, in correlation.

      Here's the worst turnover guys :

      (Ratio of actual turnovers to expected turnovers)

      2.74 Mason,Anthony Mil
      2.54 Harrington,Al Ind
      2.37 Johnson,Joe Pho
      2.27 Cheaney,Calbert Uta
      1.82 Declercq,Andrew Orl
      1.80 Szczerbiak,Wally Min
      1.70 Giricek,Gordan Orl
      1.67 Wesley,David NO
      1.58 Bradley,Shawn Dal
      1.56 Malone,Karl Uta
      1.54 Stoudemire,Amare Pho
      1.53 Armstrong,Darrel Orl
      1.52 Jackson,Stephen San
      1.48 Cassell,Sam Mil
      1.45 Pargo,Jannero LAL
      1.45 Vanhorn,Keith Phi
      1.44 Walker,Antoine Bos
      1.44 Mutombo,Dikembe NJ
      1.41 Stockton,John Uta
      1.41 Clark,Keon Sac
      1.34 Marbury,Stephon Pho

      Ideally, this list shouldn't be dominated by point guards, power
      forwards, or anyone else. It seems to be so.

      The top 4 guys on the list had horrid playoff numbers. While they
      didn't feature prominently in any TO/G list, they did almost nothing
      else either.

      100 minutes was the cutoff for making these lists. Now I see that
      among players whose teams got past the 1st round, only Shawn Bradley
      was worse than Mr. Jackson. Bradley is here because the rest of his
      game went into the trash; Jackson is always this bad.

      Now here is the other end of the list:

      .35 Stojakovic,Predr Sac
      .36 Wallace,Ben Det
      .37 Bell,Raja Dal
      .39 Wallace,Rasheed Por
      .51 Brown,P.J. NO
      .52 Whitney,Chris Orl
      .55 Turkoglu,Hidaye Sac
      .56 Kittles,Kerry NJ
      .57 Delk,Tony Bos
      .58 Barry,Jon Det
      .58 Bowen,Bruce San
      .60 Williams,Aaron NJ
      .65 Battie,Tony Bos
      .65 Finley,Michael Dal
      .65 Coleman,Derrick Phi
      .65 Tinsley,Jamaal Ind
      .67 Thomas,Tim Mil
      .68 Stoudamire,Damon Por
      .68 Lafrentz,Raef Dal
      .69 Curry,Michael Det
      .69 Jackson,Bobby Sac
      .70 Peeler,Anthony Min
      .71 Duncan,Tim San
      .71 Robinson,David San
      .72 Mason,Desmond Mil
      .72 O'Neal,Shaquille LAL
      .73 Divac,Vlade Sac
      .73 Mccarty,Walter Bos
      .74 Kirilenko,Andrei Uta

      Not surprisingly, we see here a lot more players who drove deeper
      into the playoffs.
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