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Re: Plus/Minus Numbers

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  • Mike G
    ... only averaged ... collapses,... My impression was also that when the Spurs big leads were beginning to teeter, Jackson was inevitably attempting an
    Message 1 of 8 , Jun 17, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "ssims22000" <ssims2@i...>
      wrote:
      > [Stephen] Jackson had his ups and downs in the playoffs, but he
      only averaged
      > 2.8 turnovers per game (hardly a turnover machine). Certainly, he
      > seemed to star prominently in those Spurs' 4th quarter
      collapses,...

      My impression was also that when the Spurs' big leads were beginning
      to teeter, Jackson was inevitably attempting an impossible pass and
      turning it over.

      His turnover rate doesn't seem startlingly high; but here are the
      guys ahead of him for the playoffs:

      Per-36-minutes, etc

      3.9 Malone,Karl Uta
      3.9 Pierce,Paul Bos
      3.6 Kidd,Jason NJ
      3.4 Webber,Chris Sac
      3.4 Stoudemire,Amare Pho
      3.3 Marbury,Stephon Pho
      3.3 Iverson,Allen Phi
      3.3 Stockton,John Uta
      3.3 Mcgrady,Tracy Orl
      3.3 Walker,Antoine Bos
      3.3 Hamilton,Richard Det
      3.1 Bryant,Kobe LAL
      3.1 Jackson,Stephen San

      That's 12 players with greater TO rates. Among them, only Stockton
      was less of a scorer; and only Stoudamire and Hamilton did less
      passing.

      So Jackson is well ahead of the pack in TO/(everything else) ratio,
      in this group. In other words, he doesn't do enough to justify 3
      turnovers in 36 minutes.


      > The Spurs probably
      > would not be 27 points worse without Tim Duncan - but they would
      be
      > a lot worse.

      When I saw this number 27, I thought it must be pretty close to
      correct. What player on the Spurs doesn't have his efficiency
      improved by the double and triple-teaming of Duncan? Would Robinson
      have had those open dunks? Would Bowen et al have had the open
      looks?

      The Spurs didn't steamroll their way to the title. Their average
      score of 95-89 is pretty humble, actually.

      I can easily imagine -- without Duncan -- a first-round exit with
      average score around 78-99.

      > ... I still
      > think that San Antonio would win no more than 30 games without
      > Duncan for a whole season. So maybe the Spurs are actually only
      10-
      > 13 points better with Duncan over a whole game.

      The Spurs without Duncan are probably no better than Memphis or
      Cleveland.


      > As for Ginobili, I mentioned that I cannot remember him not
      being
      > on the floor for any of the Spurs' big runs. The Spurs in the
      > playoffs were a team of runs, and we often saw 20-point
      turnarounds
      > in the same game. If Ginobili was present in a disproportionate
      > number of these positive runs, then given his limited minutes, its
      > not really surprising that his +/- would be so high. Now, as to
      > what effect Ginobili had on causing these runs - that is a matter
      > for discussion.

      The Spurs' affliction the last few years has been stagnation on
      offense. Ginobili is anything but stale.
    • Leo Walsh
      ... teams drafting the best players available in the draft. Do you have any books, references or formulas to recommend that would help me detrimine the best
      Message 2 of 8 , Jun 18, 2003
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        --- ssims22000 <ssims2@...> wrote:
        > Hi,
        >
        > I'm attempting to play a historical replay based on
        teams drafting the best players available in the
        draft.

        Do you have any books, references or formulas to
        recommend that would help me detrimine the best
        players in each draft?

        Any direction would be greatly appreciated.

        Thank you in advance,

        Leo Walsh

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      • Mike G
        ... Apologies to Simmy for failing to respond (or failing to see) a previous post on this subject. Here s *one* rating based on what I call career equivalent
        Message 3 of 8 , Jun 18, 2003
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          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Leo Walsh <lojowo@y...> wrote:
          >
          > --- ssims22000 <ssims2@i...> wrote:
          > > Hi,
          > >
          > > I'm attempting to play a historical replay based on
          > teams drafting the best players available in the
          > draft.
          >
          > Do you have any books, references or formulas to
          > recommend that would help me detrimine the best
          > players in each draft?
          >
          > Any direction would be greatly appreciated.
          >
          > Thank you in advance,
          >
          > Leo Walsh

          Apologies to Simmy for failing to respond (or failing to see) a
          previous post on this subject.

          Here's *one* rating based on what I call 'career equivalent totals'.
          This system attempts to 'standardize' career totals by accounting for
          the various milieus (i.e., era, team styles) in which the totals were
          accumulated.

          I'll be happy to explain further or just pass along the spreadsheets.

          This list will be pretty short for some early years. It also hasn't
          been updated for a year or two. It includes only players who amassed
          10,000 or more 'equivalent' points + rebounds + etc.

          (I guess the cutoff changes to 15,000 at some point; I've also found
          one error, in 1989, but I don't have time to track it down. So
          consider this a sample..)

          1953
          15987 Carl Braun
          10855 Earl Lloyd
          26842
          1954
          23044 Clyde Lovellette
          17928 George Yardley
          15051 Ray Felix
          10821 Jack George
          66844
          1955
          40542 Bob Pettit
          24754 Johnny Kerr
          16064 Gene Shue
          15768 Larry Costello
          14492 Frank Ramsey
          111620
          1956
          23984 Jack Twyman
          16735 Tom Gola
          13791 Kenny Sears
          12590 Walter Dukes
          8556 Maurice Stokes
          75656
          1957
          40742 Bill Russell
          24770 Cliff Hagan
          22868 Richie Guerin
          20429 Tom Heinsohn
          16893 Willie Naulls
          125702
          1958
          23907 Sam Jones
          23907
          1959
          39390 Elgin Baylor
          30604 Hal Greer
          18628 Guy Rodgers
          17239 Wayne Embry
          10732 Connie Dierking
          10089 K.C. Jones
          126682
          1960
          60802 Wilt Chamberlain
          28284 Bailey Howell
          20637 Dick Barnett
          19889 Johnny Green
          19302 Rudy LaRusso
          11274 Tom Hawkins
          11196 Dave Gambee
          171384
          1961
          44627 Oscar Robertson
          40353 Jerry West
          28604 Lenny Wilkens
          19291 Bob Boozer
          14848 Satch Sanders
          14380 Don Ohl
          11710 Darrall Imhoff
          10346 Al Attles
          184159
          1962
          35100 Walt Bellamy
          17887 Ray Scott
          15707 Tom Meschery
          11051 Adrian Smith
          79745
          1963
          41194 John Havlicek
          28761 Chet Walker
          26543 Zelmo Beaty
          24801 Dave Debusschere
          23216 Bill Bridges
          18508 Don Nelson
          17721 Leroy Ellis
          14293 Kevin Loughery
          12951 Terry Dischinger
          207988
          1964
          28596 Nate Thurmond
          28052 Jerry Lucas
          16627 Gus Johnson
          13389 Don Kojis
          86664
          1965
          25975 Paul Silas
          21517 Willis Reed
          19579 Happy Hairston
          18687 Jeff Mullins
          17201 Joe Caldwell
          13518 Walt Hazzard
          12568 Larry Jones
          129045
          1966
          36776 Rick Barry
          26389 Gail Goodrich
          25293 Billy Cunnngham
          20338 Dick VanArsdale
          17148 Jerry Sloan
          17119 Tom VanArsdale
          14266 Jim Washington
          13331 Jon McGlocklin
          12439 Keith Erickson
          183099
          1967
          25288 Dave Bing
          23947 Lou Hudson
          19025 Bob Love
          17926 Archie Clark
          17691 Jack Marin
          16630 Dick Snyder
          16626 Cazzie Russell
          16228 Freddie Lewis
          12310 Clyde Lee
          11640 Jim Barnett
          10439 John Block
          10352 Bill Melchionni
          198102
          1968
          28601 Walt Frazier
          23812 Earl Monroe
          20983 Louie Dampier
          19565 Mel Daniels
          17840 Connie Hawkins
          16890 Jimmy Jones
          15769 Roger Brown
          143460
          1969
          45587 Elvin Hayes
          29856 Wes Unseld
          23460 Ron Boone
          98903
          1970
          75001 Kareem
          26007 Bob Dandridge
          25721 Spencer Haywood
          22036 Jo Jo White
          17942 Norm Van Lier
          16752 Mack Calvin
          15236 Willie Wise
          198695
          1971
          41200 Dan Issel
          34452 Bob Lanier
          27811 Dave Cowens
          25375 Billy Paultz
          25303 Nate Archibald
          24947 Calvin Murphy
          24173 Sam Lacey
          20630 Rudy Tomjanovich
          20319 Pete Maravich
          19198 Charlie Scott
          18794 John Johnson
          282202
          1972
          52525 Julius Erving
          49025 Artis Gilmore
          28753 George McGinnis
          23451 Randy Smith
          20850 Fred Brown
          20127 Sidney Wicks
          17878 Mike Newlin
          17393 Tom Owens
          17165 Dave Robisch
          15961 Clifford Ray
          263128
          1973
          35815 George Gervin
          30420 Bob McAdoo
          20325 Paul Westphal
          17383 Jim Chones
          15578 James Silas
          15549 Don Buse
          135070
          1974
          25683 Caldwell Jones
          20281 Larry Kenon
          18049 Swen Nater
          64013
          1975
          52972 Moses Malone
          27495 Maurice Lucas
          25196 Bobby Jones
          23415 Jamaal Wilkes
          21314 Mickey Johnson
          20616 John Drew
          20457 Truck Robinson
          19707 Billy Knight
          19035 Scott Wedman
          15035 Brian Winters
          245242
          1976
          27048 Alvan Adams
          23828 Gus Williams
          22511 World Free
          22167 Dan Roundfield
          18047 David Thompson
          17374 Darryl Dawkins
          16592 Junior Bridgeman
          16230 Mark Olberding
          16106 Ricky Sobers
          179903
          1977
          48340 Robert Parish
          35694 Alex English
          33928 Adrian Dantley
          29983 Dennis Johnsn
          19420 John Lucas
          167365
          1978
          34672 Jack Sikma
          27439 Walter Davis
          27168 Bernard King
          23457 James Edwards
          23149 Marques Johnson
          20912 Norm Nixon
          20639 Cedric Maxwell
          18712 Tree Rollins
          18327 Robert Reid
          17341 Greg Ballard
          17133 Rickey Green
          16930 Otis Birdsong
          16055 Ray Williams
          15932 Brad Davis
          297866
          1979
          28832 Maurice Cheeks
          26942 Reggie Theus
          23972 Mychal Thompson
          19373 Mike Mitchell
          18892 Purvis Short
          16086 Wayne Cooper
          15523 Terry Tyler
          15465 Mike Richardson
          15408 Dave Corzine
          15186 John Long
          195679
          1980
          44626 Larry Bird
          44300 Magic Johnson
          23221 Bill Cartwright
          22040 Sidney Moncrief
          19383 Vinnie Johnson
          17927 Michael Cooper
          17038 David Greenwood
          16531 Calvin Natt
          16507 Cliff Robinson I
          15881 Jim Paxson
          237454
          1981
          34312 Kevin McHale
          29905 Bill Laimbeer
          21143 Kiki Vanderweghe
          19690 Mike Gminski
          19094 James Donaldson
          18533 Rick Mahorn
          18486 JoeBarry Carroll
          15964 Darrell Griffith
          15210 Larry Smith
          192337
          1982
          35344 Buck Williams
          34280 Isiah Thomas
          31213 Larry Nance
          30212 Tom Chambers
          27198 Mark Aguirre
          26353 Eddie Johnson
          25046 Rolando Blackman
          22914 Danny Ainge
          21373 Herb Williams
          19233 Orlando Woolridge
          16984 Dan Schayes
          16226 Kelly Tripucka
          15825 Alton Lister
          322201
          1983
          37745 Dominique Wilkins
          32948 Terry Cummings
          29146 James Worthy
          21317 Ricky Pierce
          20286 Sleepy Floyd
          20240 Lafayette Lever
          17668 Mark Eaton
          16845 Paul Pressey
          16512 LaSalle Thompson
          212707
          1984
          40993 Clyde Drexler
          29413 Derek Harper
          27432 Dale Ellis
          25403 Byron Scott
          21944 Jeff Malone
          20306 Glenn Rivers
          19681 Thurl Bailey
          18312 Rodney McCray
          16625 Sedale Threatt
          15240 Mark West
          235349
          1985
          54666 Michael Jordan
          53688 Hakeem Olajuwon
          48938 Charles Barkley
          46087 John Stockton
          32920 Otis Thorpe
          29928 Sam Perkins
          28852 Kevin Willis
          23573 Jerome Kersey
          19739 Alvin Robertson
          18106 Vern Fleming
          16719 Antoine Carr
          16286 Jay Humphries
          15303 Craig Ehlo
          404805
          1986
          59000 Karl Malone
          45786 Patrick Ewing
          30612 Detlef Schrempf
          29206 Terry Porter
          29158 Charles Oakley
          27882 Chris Mullin
          27236 Joe Dumars
          26467 A.C. Green
          21168 Xavier McDaniel
          19057 Tyrone Corbin
          18971 Wayman Tisdale
          17701 Gerald Wilkins
          17684 Benoit Benjamin
          15715 Michael Adams
          15117 Spud Webb
          400760
          1987
          30911 Jeff Hornacek
          24840 Ron Harper
          24701 Dennis Rodman
          21538 Chuck Person
          21100 HotRod Williams
          21092 Mark Price
          20065 Brad Daugherty
          17034 Dell Curry
          16439 Johnny Newman
          15981 Nate McMillan
          213701
          1988
          38788 Scottie Pippen
          32974 Reggie Miller
          29042 Horace Grant
          26769 Kevin Johnson
          21068 Armon Gilliam
          20035 Derrick McKey
          17709 Muggsy Bogues
          17060 Kenny Smith
          16563 Olden Polynice
          220008
          1989
          27540 Mark Jackson
          26785 Mitch Richmond
          24995 Rod Strickland
          24650 Hersey Hawkins
          23408 Rik Smits
          20965 Dan Majerle
          19732 Danny Manning
          18115 John Starks
          17947 Avery Johnson
          17616 Rony Seikaly
          17312 Grant Long
          16265 Vernon Maxwell
          255330
          1990
          38409 David Robinson
          28812 Shawn Kemp
          24703 Tim Hardaway
          24651 Glen Rice
          23319 Mookie Blaylock
          23271 Vlade Divac
          22992 Cliff RobinsonII
          19339 Nick Anderson
          18388 Anthony Mason
          17524 Sean Elliott
          241408
          1991
          27531 Gary Payton
          19505 Derrick Coleman
          17374 Kendall Gill
          16184 Elden Campbell
          14182 Tyrone Hill
          94776
          1992
          23232 Dikembe Mutombo
          20315 Larry Johnson
          18343 Steve Smith
          16867 Terrell Brandon
          16426 Dale Davis
          16352 Kenny Anderson
          111535
          1993
          29991 Shaquille O'Neal
          22567 Alonzo Mourning
          16654 Christi Laettner
          16070 Latrell Sprewell
          15871 Tom Gugliotta
          14723 C.Weatherspoon
          115876
          1994
          16211 Penny Hardaway
          15781 Chris Webber
          14296 Nick Van Exel
          13937 Allan Houston
          13834 Toni Kukoc
          74059
          1995
          17806 Grant Hill
          13235 Jason Kidd
          13162 Glenn Robinson
          12501 Eddie Jones
          11969 Juwan Howard
          9588 Jalen Rose
          78261
          1996
          13221 Kevin Garnett
          11056 Mike Finley
          10885 Damon Stoudamire
          10490 Antonio McDyess
          10482 Arvydas Sabonis
          9523 Rasheed Wallace
          9486 Jerry Stackhouse
          75143
          1997
          10495 Allen Iverson
          8954 Antoine Walker
          8775 Stephon Marbury
          8450 Ray Allen
          8057 Kobe Bryant
          44731
          1998
          10172 Tim Duncan
          7382 Shareef A-Raheem
          17554


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        • Leo Walsh
          Thanks Mike, Thanks for your help. This rating will probably help also in determining the value of the player after his career has begun. I m sure I ll run
          Message 4 of 8 , Jun 18, 2003
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            Thanks Mike,

            Thanks for your help.

            This rating will probably help also in determining the
            value of the player after his career has begun.

            I'm sure I'll run into the situation that I will have
            too many minutes on one team while not enough on
            another.

            I'll also run into the situation that I have two small
            forwards ( for example ) and will have to move someone
            to balance out the minutes played.

            I'll have to balance minutes played somehow.
            --- Mike G <msg_53@...> wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Leo Walsh
            > <lojowo@y...> wrote:
            > >
            > > --- ssims22000 <ssims2@i...> wrote:
            > > > Hi,
            > > >
            > > > I'm attempting to play a historical replay
            > based on
            > > teams drafting the best players available in the
            > > draft.
            > >
            > > Do you have any books, references or formulas to
            > > recommend that would help me detrimine the best
            > > players in each draft?
            > >
            > > Any direction would be greatly appreciated.
            > >
            > > Thank you in advance,
            > >
            > > Leo Walsh
            >
            > Apologies to Simmy for failing to respond (or
            > failing to see) a
            > previous post on this subject.
            >
            > Here's *one* rating based on what I call 'career
            > equivalent totals'.
            > This system attempts to 'standardize' career totals
            > by accounting for
            > the various milieus (i.e., era, team styles) in
            > which the totals were
            > accumulated.
            >
            > I'll be happy to explain further or just pass along
            > the spreadsheets.
            >
            > This list will be pretty short for some early years.
            > It also hasn't
            > been updated for a year or two. It includes only
            > players who amassed
            > 10,000 or more 'equivalent' points + rebounds + etc.
            >
            > (I guess the cutoff changes to 15,000 at some point;
            > I've also found
            > one error, in 1989, but I don't have time to track
            > it down. So
            > consider this a sample..)
            >
            > 1953
            > 15987 Carl Braun
            > 10855 Earl Lloyd
            > 26842
            > 1954
            > 23044 Clyde Lovellette
            > 17928 George Yardley
            > 15051 Ray Felix
            > 10821 Jack George
            > 66844
            > 1955
            > 40542 Bob Pettit
            > 24754 Johnny Kerr
            > 16064 Gene Shue
            > 15768 Larry Costello
            > 14492 Frank Ramsey
            > 111620
            > 1956
            > 23984 Jack Twyman
            > 16735 Tom Gola
            > 13791 Kenny Sears
            > 12590 Walter Dukes
            > 8556 Maurice Stokes
            > 75656
            > 1957
            > 40742 Bill Russell
            > 24770 Cliff Hagan
            > 22868 Richie Guerin
            > 20429 Tom Heinsohn
            > 16893 Willie Naulls
            > 125702
            > 1958
            > 23907 Sam Jones
            > 23907
            > 1959
            > 39390 Elgin Baylor
            > 30604 Hal Greer
            > 18628 Guy Rodgers
            > 17239 Wayne Embry
            > 10732 Connie Dierking
            > 10089 K.C. Jones
            > 126682
            > 1960
            > 60802 Wilt Chamberlain
            > 28284 Bailey Howell
            > 20637 Dick Barnett
            > 19889 Johnny Green
            > 19302 Rudy LaRusso
            > 11274 Tom Hawkins
            > 11196 Dave Gambee
            > 171384
            > 1961
            > 44627 Oscar Robertson
            > 40353 Jerry West
            > 28604 Lenny Wilkens
            > 19291 Bob Boozer
            > 14848 Satch Sanders
            > 14380 Don Ohl
            > 11710 Darrall Imhoff
            > 10346 Al Attles
            > 184159
            > 1962
            > 35100 Walt Bellamy
            > 17887 Ray Scott
            > 15707 Tom Meschery
            > 11051 Adrian Smith
            > 79745
            > 1963
            > 41194 John Havlicek
            > 28761 Chet Walker
            > 26543 Zelmo Beaty
            > 24801 Dave Debusschere
            > 23216 Bill Bridges
            > 18508 Don Nelson
            > 17721 Leroy Ellis
            > 14293 Kevin Loughery
            > 12951 Terry Dischinger
            > 207988
            > 1964
            > 28596 Nate Thurmond
            > 28052 Jerry Lucas
            > 16627 Gus Johnson
            > 13389 Don Kojis
            > 86664
            > 1965
            > 25975 Paul Silas
            > 21517 Willis Reed
            > 19579 Happy Hairston
            > 18687 Jeff Mullins
            > 17201 Joe Caldwell
            > 13518 Walt Hazzard
            > 12568 Larry Jones
            > 129045
            > 1966
            > 36776 Rick Barry
            > 26389 Gail Goodrich
            > 25293 Billy Cunnngham
            > 20338 Dick VanArsdale
            > 17148 Jerry Sloan
            > 17119 Tom VanArsdale
            > 14266 Jim Washington
            > 13331 Jon McGlocklin
            > 12439 Keith Erickson
            > 183099
            > 1967
            > 25288 Dave Bing
            > 23947 Lou Hudson
            > 19025 Bob Love
            > 17926 Archie Clark
            > 17691 Jack Marin
            > 16630 Dick Snyder
            > 16626 Cazzie Russell
            > 16228 Freddie Lewis
            > 12310 Clyde Lee
            > 11640 Jim Barnett
            > 10439 John Block
            > 10352 Bill Melchionni
            > 198102
            > 1968
            > 28601 Walt Frazier
            > 23812 Earl Monroe
            > 20983 Louie Dampier
            > 19565 Mel Daniels
            > 17840 Connie Hawkins
            > 16890 Jimmy Jones
            > 15769 Roger Brown
            > 143460
            > 1969
            > 45587 Elvin Hayes
            > 29856 Wes Unseld
            > 23460 Ron Boone
            > 98903
            > 1970
            > 75001 Kareem
            > 26007 Bob Dandridge
            > 25721 Spencer Haywood
            > 22036 Jo Jo White
            > 17942 Norm Van Lier
            > 16752 Mack Calvin
            > 15236 Willie Wise
            > 198695
            > 1971
            > 41200 Dan Issel
            > 34452 Bob Lanier
            > 27811 Dave Cowens
            > 25375 Billy Paultz
            > 25303 Nate Archibald
            > 24947 Calvin Murphy
            > 24173 Sam Lacey
            > 20630 Rudy Tomjanovich
            > 20319 Pete Maravich
            > 19198 Charlie Scott
            > 18794 John Johnson
            >
            === message truncated ===


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