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Plus/Minus Numbers

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  • ssims22000
    Hi, Elias Sports Bureau apparently keeps plus/minus stats for the playoffs, at least. I saw on ESPN (prior to game 5) that the Spurs Duncan and Ginobili had
    Message 1 of 8 , Jun 14, 2003
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      Hi,

      Elias Sports Bureau apparently keeps plus/minus stats for the
      playoffs, at least. I saw on ESPN (prior to game 5) that the Spurs'
      Duncan and Ginobili had the two highest ratings (+162 and +165,
      respectively). Personally, I think raw plus/minus numbers are about
      as useful as raw points per game average, but I was intrigued by
      these numbers and decided to do a little analysis.
      Through game 4 of the finals, the Spurs had outscored their
      opponents by 111 over 22 games. Duncan is averaging around 42
      minutes per game, while Ginobili, as a sub, is averaging around 27.
      I'll look at Duncan's numbers first - he is the team's MVP, and his
      presence or absence would obviously have the most profound impact on
      his team.
      When Duncan is on the floor, the Spurs outscored their opponents
      by 162 over 22 games (+7.4 / game). He played 42 minutes per game,
      so pro-rated over 48 minutes, this is approximately +8.4. When he
      was out, the Spurs were outscored by 51 (-2.3 / game), but this
      occurred in only 6 minutes per game on average. Pro-rated to 48
      minutes, this is -18.5. Thus, over 48 minutes, the Spurs are
      approximatelt 27 points better with Duncan than without him.
      Now for Ginobili. With him, the Spurs were +165 ((+7.5 / game).
      Since he plays only 27 minutes per game, this pro-rates to +13.3.
      Note that even if we assume that Ginobili always plays with Duncan
      (an assumption we know to be false), he is still adding around 5
      points per 48 minutes in addition to what Duncan (and his other
      teammates) bring. The Spurs were -54 without Ginobili (-2.5 /
      game), which pro-rates to -5.6. Over 48 minutes, the Spurs are
      approximately 19 points better with Ginobili than without him. This
      effect is too large to be an artifact, and it squares with what I
      have been watching - the Spurs are obviously smoother offensively
      and much more intense defensively when Ginobili is on the floor. He
      is an aggressive scorer and defender as well as a fine compliment to
      Duncan. Is there a good reason why he is not starting, I wonder?

      Simmy Sims
    • Mike G
      How do you get these numbers? At the ESB site, all I can get is a plug for a book, on baseball. ... This ... He ... to ... I imagine he will be starting next
      Message 2 of 8 , Jun 16, 2003
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        How do you get these numbers? At the ESB site, all I can get is a
        plug for a book, on baseball.


        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "ssims22000" <ssims2@i...>
        wrote:
        > Hi,
        >
        > Elias Sports Bureau apparently keeps plus/minus stats for the
        > playoffs, at least. ...

        > ... Over 48 minutes, the Spurs are
        > approximately 19 points better with Ginobili than without him.
        This
        > effect is too large to be an artifact, and it squares with what I
        > have been watching - the Spurs are obviously smoother offensively
        > and much more intense defensively when Ginobili is on the floor.
        He
        > is an aggressive scorer and defender as well as a fine compliment
        to
        > Duncan. Is there a good reason why he is not starting, I wonder?


        I imagine he will be starting next year. I agree, he was the one
        player (other than Duncan) who did not 'stiffen up' when the rest of
        the team went into their 4th-quarter torpors.
      • John Hollinger
        Because much of the effect you were seeing wasn t Ginobili ON the floor, it was Stephen Jackson OFF it. Jackson had a very solid regular season but was a
        Message 3 of 8 , Jun 16, 2003
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          Because much of the effect you were seeing wasn't Ginobili ON the
          floor, it was Stephen Jackson OFF it. Jackson had a very solid
          regular season but was a gigantic turnover machine in the Finals;
          Ginobili was always his replacement.

          In general, I haven't been impressed by what +/- stats show, because
          a lot of the numbers aren't making sense. It isn't humanly possible
          for a team to be 25 points better with one player in the lineup or
          not; that's saying that player turns the a 10-win team into the 96
          Bulls. Methinks there's other cause/effects buried in the data that
          we're not seeing.







          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
          > How do you get these numbers? At the ESB site, all I can get is a
          > plug for a book, on baseball.
          >
          >
          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "ssims22000" <ssims2@i...>
          > wrote:
          > > Hi,
          > >
          > > Elias Sports Bureau apparently keeps plus/minus stats for the
          > > playoffs, at least. ...
          >
          > > ... Over 48 minutes, the Spurs are
          > > approximately 19 points better with Ginobili than without him.
          > This
          > > effect is too large to be an artifact, and it squares with what I
          > > have been watching - the Spurs are obviously smoother offensively
          > > and much more intense defensively when Ginobili is on the floor.
          > He
          > > is an aggressive scorer and defender as well as a fine compliment
          > to
          > > Duncan. Is there a good reason why he is not starting, I wonder?
          >
          >
          > I imagine he will be starting next year. I agree, he was the one
          > player (other than Duncan) who did not 'stiffen up' when the rest
          of
          > the team went into their 4th-quarter torpors.
        • ssims22000
          ... I saw them in a couple of articles on ESPN. I expect they re buried in the archives by now. Only Duncan s and Ginobili s numbers were provided. ... of
          Message 4 of 8 , Jun 17, 2003
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            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
            > How do you get these numbers? At the ESB site, all I can get is a
            > plug for a book, on baseball.
            >
            I saw them in a couple of articles on ESPN. I expect they're
            buried in the archives by now. Only Duncan's and Ginobili's numbers
            were provided.

            >
            >
            > I imagine he will be starting next year. I agree, he was the one
            > player (other than Duncan) who did not 'stiffen up' when the rest
            of
            > the team went into their 4th-quarter torpors.

            More important, in my estimation, is that I cannot remember a
            single big Spurs run in which Ginobili was not on the floor.

            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
            <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
            >Because much of the effect you were seeing wasn't Ginobili ON the
            >floor, it was Stephen Jackson OFF it. Jackson had a very solid
            >regular season but was a gigantic turnover machine in the Finals;
            >Ginobili was always his replacement.
            >
            I don't think this is as significant a factor as you think.
            Jackson played almost 34 minutes per game, while Ginobili logged
            over 27 a game. Even assuming one of them was always on the floor,
            this still means that Ginobili and Jackson played together for more
            than 13 minutes each game (or almost half of Manu's total minutes).
            Jackson had his ups and downs in the playoffs, but he only averaged
            2.8 turnovers per game (hardly a turnover machine). Certainly, he
            seemed to star prominently in those Spurs' 4th quarter collapses,
            but no more prominently than Ginobili starred in the Spurs' great
            4th quarter runs - the ones that won the last three series for them.

            >In general, I haven't been impressed by what +/- stats show,
            >because
            >a lot of the numbers aren't making sense. It isn't humanly possible
            >for a team to be 25 points better with one player in the lineup or
            >not; that's saying that player turns the a 10-win team into the 96
            >Bulls. Methinks there's other cause/effects buried in the data that
            >we're not seeing.

            I'm sure there are other factors at work. The Spurs probably
            would not be 27 points worse without Tim Duncan - but they would be
            a lot worse. When a player as important as Duncan goes out, there
            is a period of adjustment to the radically different offensive and
            defensive flow the game has without him. Since Duncan is only out 6
            minutes per game, there really is not time for the Spurs to adjust
            to his absence. Also, the opposing team usually tries to make a
            push while the opposing team's best player is out. If Duncan missed
            an entire game, both of these factors would smooth out. I still
            think that San Antonio would win no more than 30 games without
            Duncan for a whole season. So maybe the Spurs are actually only 10-
            13 points better with Duncan over a whole game.
            As for Ginobili, I mentioned that I cannot remember him not being
            on the floor for any of the Spurs' big runs. The Spurs in the
            playoffs were a team of runs, and we often saw 20-point turnarounds
            in the same game. If Ginobili was present in a disproportionate
            number of these positive runs, then given his limited minutes, its
            not really surprising that his +/- would be so high. Now, as to
            what effect Ginobili had on causing these runs - that is a matter
            for discussion.
          • Mike G
            ... only averaged ... collapses,... My impression was also that when the Spurs big leads were beginning to teeter, Jackson was inevitably attempting an
            Message 5 of 8 , Jun 17, 2003
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              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "ssims22000" <ssims2@i...>
              wrote:
              > [Stephen] Jackson had his ups and downs in the playoffs, but he
              only averaged
              > 2.8 turnovers per game (hardly a turnover machine). Certainly, he
              > seemed to star prominently in those Spurs' 4th quarter
              collapses,...

              My impression was also that when the Spurs' big leads were beginning
              to teeter, Jackson was inevitably attempting an impossible pass and
              turning it over.

              His turnover rate doesn't seem startlingly high; but here are the
              guys ahead of him for the playoffs:

              Per-36-minutes, etc

              3.9 Malone,Karl Uta
              3.9 Pierce,Paul Bos
              3.6 Kidd,Jason NJ
              3.4 Webber,Chris Sac
              3.4 Stoudemire,Amare Pho
              3.3 Marbury,Stephon Pho
              3.3 Iverson,Allen Phi
              3.3 Stockton,John Uta
              3.3 Mcgrady,Tracy Orl
              3.3 Walker,Antoine Bos
              3.3 Hamilton,Richard Det
              3.1 Bryant,Kobe LAL
              3.1 Jackson,Stephen San

              That's 12 players with greater TO rates. Among them, only Stockton
              was less of a scorer; and only Stoudamire and Hamilton did less
              passing.

              So Jackson is well ahead of the pack in TO/(everything else) ratio,
              in this group. In other words, he doesn't do enough to justify 3
              turnovers in 36 minutes.


              > The Spurs probably
              > would not be 27 points worse without Tim Duncan - but they would
              be
              > a lot worse.

              When I saw this number 27, I thought it must be pretty close to
              correct. What player on the Spurs doesn't have his efficiency
              improved by the double and triple-teaming of Duncan? Would Robinson
              have had those open dunks? Would Bowen et al have had the open
              looks?

              The Spurs didn't steamroll their way to the title. Their average
              score of 95-89 is pretty humble, actually.

              I can easily imagine -- without Duncan -- a first-round exit with
              average score around 78-99.

              > ... I still
              > think that San Antonio would win no more than 30 games without
              > Duncan for a whole season. So maybe the Spurs are actually only
              10-
              > 13 points better with Duncan over a whole game.

              The Spurs without Duncan are probably no better than Memphis or
              Cleveland.


              > As for Ginobili, I mentioned that I cannot remember him not
              being
              > on the floor for any of the Spurs' big runs. The Spurs in the
              > playoffs were a team of runs, and we often saw 20-point
              turnarounds
              > in the same game. If Ginobili was present in a disproportionate
              > number of these positive runs, then given his limited minutes, its
              > not really surprising that his +/- would be so high. Now, as to
              > what effect Ginobili had on causing these runs - that is a matter
              > for discussion.

              The Spurs' affliction the last few years has been stagnation on
              offense. Ginobili is anything but stale.
            • Leo Walsh
              ... teams drafting the best players available in the draft. Do you have any books, references or formulas to recommend that would help me detrimine the best
              Message 6 of 8 , Jun 18, 2003
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                --- ssims22000 <ssims2@...> wrote:
                > Hi,
                >
                > I'm attempting to play a historical replay based on
                teams drafting the best players available in the
                draft.

                Do you have any books, references or formulas to
                recommend that would help me detrimine the best
                players in each draft?

                Any direction would be greatly appreciated.

                Thank you in advance,

                Leo Walsh

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              • Mike G
                ... Apologies to Simmy for failing to respond (or failing to see) a previous post on this subject. Here s *one* rating based on what I call career equivalent
                Message 7 of 8 , Jun 18, 2003
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                  --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Leo Walsh <lojowo@y...> wrote:
                  >
                  > --- ssims22000 <ssims2@i...> wrote:
                  > > Hi,
                  > >
                  > > I'm attempting to play a historical replay based on
                  > teams drafting the best players available in the
                  > draft.
                  >
                  > Do you have any books, references or formulas to
                  > recommend that would help me detrimine the best
                  > players in each draft?
                  >
                  > Any direction would be greatly appreciated.
                  >
                  > Thank you in advance,
                  >
                  > Leo Walsh

                  Apologies to Simmy for failing to respond (or failing to see) a
                  previous post on this subject.

                  Here's *one* rating based on what I call 'career equivalent totals'.
                  This system attempts to 'standardize' career totals by accounting for
                  the various milieus (i.e., era, team styles) in which the totals were
                  accumulated.

                  I'll be happy to explain further or just pass along the spreadsheets.

                  This list will be pretty short for some early years. It also hasn't
                  been updated for a year or two. It includes only players who amassed
                  10,000 or more 'equivalent' points + rebounds + etc.

                  (I guess the cutoff changes to 15,000 at some point; I've also found
                  one error, in 1989, but I don't have time to track it down. So
                  consider this a sample..)

                  1953
                  15987 Carl Braun
                  10855 Earl Lloyd
                  26842
                  1954
                  23044 Clyde Lovellette
                  17928 George Yardley
                  15051 Ray Felix
                  10821 Jack George
                  66844
                  1955
                  40542 Bob Pettit
                  24754 Johnny Kerr
                  16064 Gene Shue
                  15768 Larry Costello
                  14492 Frank Ramsey
                  111620
                  1956
                  23984 Jack Twyman
                  16735 Tom Gola
                  13791 Kenny Sears
                  12590 Walter Dukes
                  8556 Maurice Stokes
                  75656
                  1957
                  40742 Bill Russell
                  24770 Cliff Hagan
                  22868 Richie Guerin
                  20429 Tom Heinsohn
                  16893 Willie Naulls
                  125702
                  1958
                  23907 Sam Jones
                  23907
                  1959
                  39390 Elgin Baylor
                  30604 Hal Greer
                  18628 Guy Rodgers
                  17239 Wayne Embry
                  10732 Connie Dierking
                  10089 K.C. Jones
                  126682
                  1960
                  60802 Wilt Chamberlain
                  28284 Bailey Howell
                  20637 Dick Barnett
                  19889 Johnny Green
                  19302 Rudy LaRusso
                  11274 Tom Hawkins
                  11196 Dave Gambee
                  171384
                  1961
                  44627 Oscar Robertson
                  40353 Jerry West
                  28604 Lenny Wilkens
                  19291 Bob Boozer
                  14848 Satch Sanders
                  14380 Don Ohl
                  11710 Darrall Imhoff
                  10346 Al Attles
                  184159
                  1962
                  35100 Walt Bellamy
                  17887 Ray Scott
                  15707 Tom Meschery
                  11051 Adrian Smith
                  79745
                  1963
                  41194 John Havlicek
                  28761 Chet Walker
                  26543 Zelmo Beaty
                  24801 Dave Debusschere
                  23216 Bill Bridges
                  18508 Don Nelson
                  17721 Leroy Ellis
                  14293 Kevin Loughery
                  12951 Terry Dischinger
                  207988
                  1964
                  28596 Nate Thurmond
                  28052 Jerry Lucas
                  16627 Gus Johnson
                  13389 Don Kojis
                  86664
                  1965
                  25975 Paul Silas
                  21517 Willis Reed
                  19579 Happy Hairston
                  18687 Jeff Mullins
                  17201 Joe Caldwell
                  13518 Walt Hazzard
                  12568 Larry Jones
                  129045
                  1966
                  36776 Rick Barry
                  26389 Gail Goodrich
                  25293 Billy Cunnngham
                  20338 Dick VanArsdale
                  17148 Jerry Sloan
                  17119 Tom VanArsdale
                  14266 Jim Washington
                  13331 Jon McGlocklin
                  12439 Keith Erickson
                  183099
                  1967
                  25288 Dave Bing
                  23947 Lou Hudson
                  19025 Bob Love
                  17926 Archie Clark
                  17691 Jack Marin
                  16630 Dick Snyder
                  16626 Cazzie Russell
                  16228 Freddie Lewis
                  12310 Clyde Lee
                  11640 Jim Barnett
                  10439 John Block
                  10352 Bill Melchionni
                  198102
                  1968
                  28601 Walt Frazier
                  23812 Earl Monroe
                  20983 Louie Dampier
                  19565 Mel Daniels
                  17840 Connie Hawkins
                  16890 Jimmy Jones
                  15769 Roger Brown
                  143460
                  1969
                  45587 Elvin Hayes
                  29856 Wes Unseld
                  23460 Ron Boone
                  98903
                  1970
                  75001 Kareem
                  26007 Bob Dandridge
                  25721 Spencer Haywood
                  22036 Jo Jo White
                  17942 Norm Van Lier
                  16752 Mack Calvin
                  15236 Willie Wise
                  198695
                  1971
                  41200 Dan Issel
                  34452 Bob Lanier
                  27811 Dave Cowens
                  25375 Billy Paultz
                  25303 Nate Archibald
                  24947 Calvin Murphy
                  24173 Sam Lacey
                  20630 Rudy Tomjanovich
                  20319 Pete Maravich
                  19198 Charlie Scott
                  18794 John Johnson
                  282202
                  1972
                  52525 Julius Erving
                  49025 Artis Gilmore
                  28753 George McGinnis
                  23451 Randy Smith
                  20850 Fred Brown
                  20127 Sidney Wicks
                  17878 Mike Newlin
                  17393 Tom Owens
                  17165 Dave Robisch
                  15961 Clifford Ray
                  263128
                  1973
                  35815 George Gervin
                  30420 Bob McAdoo
                  20325 Paul Westphal
                  17383 Jim Chones
                  15578 James Silas
                  15549 Don Buse
                  135070
                  1974
                  25683 Caldwell Jones
                  20281 Larry Kenon
                  18049 Swen Nater
                  64013
                  1975
                  52972 Moses Malone
                  27495 Maurice Lucas
                  25196 Bobby Jones
                  23415 Jamaal Wilkes
                  21314 Mickey Johnson
                  20616 John Drew
                  20457 Truck Robinson
                  19707 Billy Knight
                  19035 Scott Wedman
                  15035 Brian Winters
                  245242
                  1976
                  27048 Alvan Adams
                  23828 Gus Williams
                  22511 World Free
                  22167 Dan Roundfield
                  18047 David Thompson
                  17374 Darryl Dawkins
                  16592 Junior Bridgeman
                  16230 Mark Olberding
                  16106 Ricky Sobers
                  179903
                  1977
                  48340 Robert Parish
                  35694 Alex English
                  33928 Adrian Dantley
                  29983 Dennis Johnsn
                  19420 John Lucas
                  167365
                  1978
                  34672 Jack Sikma
                  27439 Walter Davis
                  27168 Bernard King
                  23457 James Edwards
                  23149 Marques Johnson
                  20912 Norm Nixon
                  20639 Cedric Maxwell
                  18712 Tree Rollins
                  18327 Robert Reid
                  17341 Greg Ballard
                  17133 Rickey Green
                  16930 Otis Birdsong
                  16055 Ray Williams
                  15932 Brad Davis
                  297866
                  1979
                  28832 Maurice Cheeks
                  26942 Reggie Theus
                  23972 Mychal Thompson
                  19373 Mike Mitchell
                  18892 Purvis Short
                  16086 Wayne Cooper
                  15523 Terry Tyler
                  15465 Mike Richardson
                  15408 Dave Corzine
                  15186 John Long
                  195679
                  1980
                  44626 Larry Bird
                  44300 Magic Johnson
                  23221 Bill Cartwright
                  22040 Sidney Moncrief
                  19383 Vinnie Johnson
                  17927 Michael Cooper
                  17038 David Greenwood
                  16531 Calvin Natt
                  16507 Cliff Robinson I
                  15881 Jim Paxson
                  237454
                  1981
                  34312 Kevin McHale
                  29905 Bill Laimbeer
                  21143 Kiki Vanderweghe
                  19690 Mike Gminski
                  19094 James Donaldson
                  18533 Rick Mahorn
                  18486 JoeBarry Carroll
                  15964 Darrell Griffith
                  15210 Larry Smith
                  192337
                  1982
                  35344 Buck Williams
                  34280 Isiah Thomas
                  31213 Larry Nance
                  30212 Tom Chambers
                  27198 Mark Aguirre
                  26353 Eddie Johnson
                  25046 Rolando Blackman
                  22914 Danny Ainge
                  21373 Herb Williams
                  19233 Orlando Woolridge
                  16984 Dan Schayes
                  16226 Kelly Tripucka
                  15825 Alton Lister
                  322201
                  1983
                  37745 Dominique Wilkins
                  32948 Terry Cummings
                  29146 James Worthy
                  21317 Ricky Pierce
                  20286 Sleepy Floyd
                  20240 Lafayette Lever
                  17668 Mark Eaton
                  16845 Paul Pressey
                  16512 LaSalle Thompson
                  212707
                  1984
                  40993 Clyde Drexler
                  29413 Derek Harper
                  27432 Dale Ellis
                  25403 Byron Scott
                  21944 Jeff Malone
                  20306 Glenn Rivers
                  19681 Thurl Bailey
                  18312 Rodney McCray
                  16625 Sedale Threatt
                  15240 Mark West
                  235349
                  1985
                  54666 Michael Jordan
                  53688 Hakeem Olajuwon
                  48938 Charles Barkley
                  46087 John Stockton
                  32920 Otis Thorpe
                  29928 Sam Perkins
                  28852 Kevin Willis
                  23573 Jerome Kersey
                  19739 Alvin Robertson
                  18106 Vern Fleming
                  16719 Antoine Carr
                  16286 Jay Humphries
                  15303 Craig Ehlo
                  404805
                  1986
                  59000 Karl Malone
                  45786 Patrick Ewing
                  30612 Detlef Schrempf
                  29206 Terry Porter
                  29158 Charles Oakley
                  27882 Chris Mullin
                  27236 Joe Dumars
                  26467 A.C. Green
                  21168 Xavier McDaniel
                  19057 Tyrone Corbin
                  18971 Wayman Tisdale
                  17701 Gerald Wilkins
                  17684 Benoit Benjamin
                  15715 Michael Adams
                  15117 Spud Webb
                  400760
                  1987
                  30911 Jeff Hornacek
                  24840 Ron Harper
                  24701 Dennis Rodman
                  21538 Chuck Person
                  21100 HotRod Williams
                  21092 Mark Price
                  20065 Brad Daugherty
                  17034 Dell Curry
                  16439 Johnny Newman
                  15981 Nate McMillan
                  213701
                  1988
                  38788 Scottie Pippen
                  32974 Reggie Miller
                  29042 Horace Grant
                  26769 Kevin Johnson
                  21068 Armon Gilliam
                  20035 Derrick McKey
                  17709 Muggsy Bogues
                  17060 Kenny Smith
                  16563 Olden Polynice
                  220008
                  1989
                  27540 Mark Jackson
                  26785 Mitch Richmond
                  24995 Rod Strickland
                  24650 Hersey Hawkins
                  23408 Rik Smits
                  20965 Dan Majerle
                  19732 Danny Manning
                  18115 John Starks
                  17947 Avery Johnson
                  17616 Rony Seikaly
                  17312 Grant Long
                  16265 Vernon Maxwell
                  255330
                  1990
                  38409 David Robinson
                  28812 Shawn Kemp
                  24703 Tim Hardaway
                  24651 Glen Rice
                  23319 Mookie Blaylock
                  23271 Vlade Divac
                  22992 Cliff RobinsonII
                  19339 Nick Anderson
                  18388 Anthony Mason
                  17524 Sean Elliott
                  241408
                  1991
                  27531 Gary Payton
                  19505 Derrick Coleman
                  17374 Kendall Gill
                  16184 Elden Campbell
                  14182 Tyrone Hill
                  94776
                  1992
                  23232 Dikembe Mutombo
                  20315 Larry Johnson
                  18343 Steve Smith
                  16867 Terrell Brandon
                  16426 Dale Davis
                  16352 Kenny Anderson
                  111535
                  1993
                  29991 Shaquille O'Neal
                  22567 Alonzo Mourning
                  16654 Christi Laettner
                  16070 Latrell Sprewell
                  15871 Tom Gugliotta
                  14723 C.Weatherspoon
                  115876
                  1994
                  16211 Penny Hardaway
                  15781 Chris Webber
                  14296 Nick Van Exel
                  13937 Allan Houston
                  13834 Toni Kukoc
                  74059
                  1995
                  17806 Grant Hill
                  13235 Jason Kidd
                  13162 Glenn Robinson
                  12501 Eddie Jones
                  11969 Juwan Howard
                  9588 Jalen Rose
                  78261
                  1996
                  13221 Kevin Garnett
                  11056 Mike Finley
                  10885 Damon Stoudamire
                  10490 Antonio McDyess
                  10482 Arvydas Sabonis
                  9523 Rasheed Wallace
                  9486 Jerry Stackhouse
                  75143
                  1997
                  10495 Allen Iverson
                  8954 Antoine Walker
                  8775 Stephon Marbury
                  8450 Ray Allen
                  8057 Kobe Bryant
                  44731
                  1998
                  10172 Tim Duncan
                  7382 Shareef A-Raheem
                  17554


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                • Leo Walsh
                  Thanks Mike, Thanks for your help. This rating will probably help also in determining the value of the player after his career has begun. I m sure I ll run
                  Message 8 of 8 , Jun 18, 2003
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                    Thanks Mike,

                    Thanks for your help.

                    This rating will probably help also in determining the
                    value of the player after his career has begun.

                    I'm sure I'll run into the situation that I will have
                    too many minutes on one team while not enough on
                    another.

                    I'll also run into the situation that I have two small
                    forwards ( for example ) and will have to move someone
                    to balance out the minutes played.

                    I'll have to balance minutes played somehow.
                    --- Mike G <msg_53@...> wrote:
                    > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Leo Walsh
                    > <lojowo@y...> wrote:
                    > >
                    > > --- ssims22000 <ssims2@i...> wrote:
                    > > > Hi,
                    > > >
                    > > > I'm attempting to play a historical replay
                    > based on
                    > > teams drafting the best players available in the
                    > > draft.
                    > >
                    > > Do you have any books, references or formulas to
                    > > recommend that would help me detrimine the best
                    > > players in each draft?
                    > >
                    > > Any direction would be greatly appreciated.
                    > >
                    > > Thank you in advance,
                    > >
                    > > Leo Walsh
                    >
                    > Apologies to Simmy for failing to respond (or
                    > failing to see) a
                    > previous post on this subject.
                    >
                    > Here's *one* rating based on what I call 'career
                    > equivalent totals'.
                    > This system attempts to 'standardize' career totals
                    > by accounting for
                    > the various milieus (i.e., era, team styles) in
                    > which the totals were
                    > accumulated.
                    >
                    > I'll be happy to explain further or just pass along
                    > the spreadsheets.
                    >
                    > This list will be pretty short for some early years.
                    > It also hasn't
                    > been updated for a year or two. It includes only
                    > players who amassed
                    > 10,000 or more 'equivalent' points + rebounds + etc.
                    >
                    > (I guess the cutoff changes to 15,000 at some point;
                    > I've also found
                    > one error, in 1989, but I don't have time to track
                    > it down. So
                    > consider this a sample..)
                    >
                    > 1953
                    > 15987 Carl Braun
                    > 10855 Earl Lloyd
                    > 26842
                    > 1954
                    > 23044 Clyde Lovellette
                    > 17928 George Yardley
                    > 15051 Ray Felix
                    > 10821 Jack George
                    > 66844
                    > 1955
                    > 40542 Bob Pettit
                    > 24754 Johnny Kerr
                    > 16064 Gene Shue
                    > 15768 Larry Costello
                    > 14492 Frank Ramsey
                    > 111620
                    > 1956
                    > 23984 Jack Twyman
                    > 16735 Tom Gola
                    > 13791 Kenny Sears
                    > 12590 Walter Dukes
                    > 8556 Maurice Stokes
                    > 75656
                    > 1957
                    > 40742 Bill Russell
                    > 24770 Cliff Hagan
                    > 22868 Richie Guerin
                    > 20429 Tom Heinsohn
                    > 16893 Willie Naulls
                    > 125702
                    > 1958
                    > 23907 Sam Jones
                    > 23907
                    > 1959
                    > 39390 Elgin Baylor
                    > 30604 Hal Greer
                    > 18628 Guy Rodgers
                    > 17239 Wayne Embry
                    > 10732 Connie Dierking
                    > 10089 K.C. Jones
                    > 126682
                    > 1960
                    > 60802 Wilt Chamberlain
                    > 28284 Bailey Howell
                    > 20637 Dick Barnett
                    > 19889 Johnny Green
                    > 19302 Rudy LaRusso
                    > 11274 Tom Hawkins
                    > 11196 Dave Gambee
                    > 171384
                    > 1961
                    > 44627 Oscar Robertson
                    > 40353 Jerry West
                    > 28604 Lenny Wilkens
                    > 19291 Bob Boozer
                    > 14848 Satch Sanders
                    > 14380 Don Ohl
                    > 11710 Darrall Imhoff
                    > 10346 Al Attles
                    > 184159
                    > 1962
                    > 35100 Walt Bellamy
                    > 17887 Ray Scott
                    > 15707 Tom Meschery
                    > 11051 Adrian Smith
                    > 79745
                    > 1963
                    > 41194 John Havlicek
                    > 28761 Chet Walker
                    > 26543 Zelmo Beaty
                    > 24801 Dave Debusschere
                    > 23216 Bill Bridges
                    > 18508 Don Nelson
                    > 17721 Leroy Ellis
                    > 14293 Kevin Loughery
                    > 12951 Terry Dischinger
                    > 207988
                    > 1964
                    > 28596 Nate Thurmond
                    > 28052 Jerry Lucas
                    > 16627 Gus Johnson
                    > 13389 Don Kojis
                    > 86664
                    > 1965
                    > 25975 Paul Silas
                    > 21517 Willis Reed
                    > 19579 Happy Hairston
                    > 18687 Jeff Mullins
                    > 17201 Joe Caldwell
                    > 13518 Walt Hazzard
                    > 12568 Larry Jones
                    > 129045
                    > 1966
                    > 36776 Rick Barry
                    > 26389 Gail Goodrich
                    > 25293 Billy Cunnngham
                    > 20338 Dick VanArsdale
                    > 17148 Jerry Sloan
                    > 17119 Tom VanArsdale
                    > 14266 Jim Washington
                    > 13331 Jon McGlocklin
                    > 12439 Keith Erickson
                    > 183099
                    > 1967
                    > 25288 Dave Bing
                    > 23947 Lou Hudson
                    > 19025 Bob Love
                    > 17926 Archie Clark
                    > 17691 Jack Marin
                    > 16630 Dick Snyder
                    > 16626 Cazzie Russell
                    > 16228 Freddie Lewis
                    > 12310 Clyde Lee
                    > 11640 Jim Barnett
                    > 10439 John Block
                    > 10352 Bill Melchionni
                    > 198102
                    > 1968
                    > 28601 Walt Frazier
                    > 23812 Earl Monroe
                    > 20983 Louie Dampier
                    > 19565 Mel Daniels
                    > 17840 Connie Hawkins
                    > 16890 Jimmy Jones
                    > 15769 Roger Brown
                    > 143460
                    > 1969
                    > 45587 Elvin Hayes
                    > 29856 Wes Unseld
                    > 23460 Ron Boone
                    > 98903
                    > 1970
                    > 75001 Kareem
                    > 26007 Bob Dandridge
                    > 25721 Spencer Haywood
                    > 22036 Jo Jo White
                    > 17942 Norm Van Lier
                    > 16752 Mack Calvin
                    > 15236 Willie Wise
                    > 198695
                    > 1971
                    > 41200 Dan Issel
                    > 34452 Bob Lanier
                    > 27811 Dave Cowens
                    > 25375 Billy Paultz
                    > 25303 Nate Archibald
                    > 24947 Calvin Murphy
                    > 24173 Sam Lacey
                    > 20630 Rudy Tomjanovich
                    > 20319 Pete Maravich
                    > 19198 Charlie Scott
                    > 18794 John Johnson
                    >
                    === message truncated ===


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