Re: [APBR_analysis] (unknown)
Thanks very much for the formula on estimating
possessions per game and on finding play-by-play info.
--- Dean Oliver <deano@...> wrote:
> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com,=====
> <oxymonocanthus@y...> wrote:
> > Gday all!
> > Im trying to build a computer simulation of
> basketball to help test
> > the idea of a "hot hand" or being "in a zone."
> Basically, i hope to
> > compare the sequence of shots attempted by a
> player to shots made
> > random (conditioning on past stats) to see when
> indeed a player has
> > streak going thats better than random chance. My
> hypothesis is that
> > hot streaks are more often wrongly attributed to a
> player whose
> > is not significantly better than their average
> Gilovich and Tversky and someone else did a full
> psychological study
> of the effect years ago. Definitely something you
> should look into.
> I've got the reference somewhere.
> > Does anyone know of a source for these stats?:
> > a) Ive seen stats for how many times a player
> commits a foul. But
> > there online records of the number of times that a
> player was been
> > fouled by others?
> Not really. YOu can get them from online
> play-by-plays. DeanL is
> putting together a db with this info.
> > b) How about number of possessions in a game or
> Can be statistically estimated from
> FGA - OR + TO + 0.4*FTA
> Calculate for the offense and defense, then average.
> They're almost
> always within a couple percent of each other. BobC
> has a different
> formula, as does John, but they're all pretty
> comparable. I have a
> more advanced form.
> > c) Are there websites that give the order in which
> a player made
> > shots?
> ? The online play-by-plays -- is that what you're
> looking for? Look
> at nba.com.
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Alexander M. Kerr
Department of Ecology, Evolution, etc.
University of California
Santa Barbara CA 93106 USA
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