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  • oxymonocanthus
    Gday all! Im trying to build a computer simulation of basketball to help test the idea of a hot hand or being in a zone. Basically, i hope to compare the
    Message 1 of 3 , Jun 1, 2003
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      Gday all!

      Im trying to build a computer simulation of basketball to help test
      the idea of a "hot hand" or being "in a zone." Basically, i hope to
      compare the sequence of shots attempted by a player to shots made at
      random (conditioning on past stats) to see when indeed a player has a
      streak going thats better than random chance. My hypothesis is that
      hot streaks are more often wrongly attributed to a player whose play
      is not significantly better than their average play.

      Does anyone know of a source for these stats?:

      a) Ive seen stats for how many times a player commits a foul. But are
      there online records of the number of times that a player was been
      fouled by others?

      b) How about number of possessions in a game or season?

      c) Are there websites that give the order in which a player made his
      shots?

      Thanks to all.

      Cheers,

      Alex
    • Dean Oliver
      ... at ... a ... play ... Gilovich and Tversky and someone else did a full psychological study of the effect years ago. Definitely something you should look
      Message 2 of 3 , Jun 3, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "oxymonocanthus"
        <oxymonocanthus@y...> wrote:
        > Gday all!
        >
        > Im trying to build a computer simulation of basketball to help test
        > the idea of a "hot hand" or being "in a zone." Basically, i hope to
        > compare the sequence of shots attempted by a player to shots made
        at
        > random (conditioning on past stats) to see when indeed a player has
        a
        > streak going thats better than random chance. My hypothesis is that
        > hot streaks are more often wrongly attributed to a player whose
        play
        > is not significantly better than their average play.
        >

        Gilovich and Tversky and someone else did a full psychological study
        of the effect years ago. Definitely something you should look into.
        I've got the reference somewhere.

        > Does anyone know of a source for these stats?:
        >
        > a) Ive seen stats for how many times a player commits a foul. But
        are
        > there online records of the number of times that a player was been
        > fouled by others?
        >

        Not really. YOu can get them from online play-by-plays. DeanL is
        putting together a db with this info.

        > b) How about number of possessions in a game or season?
        >

        Can be statistically estimated from

        FGA - OR + TO + 0.4*FTA

        Calculate for the offense and defense, then average. They're almost
        always within a couple percent of each other. BobC has a different
        formula, as does John, but they're all pretty comparable. I have a
        more advanced form.

        > c) Are there websites that give the order in which a player made
        his
        > shots?

        ? The online play-by-plays -- is that what you're looking for? Look
        at nba.com.

        DeanO
      • Alexander M. Kerr
        Dean, Thanks very much for the formula on estimating possessions per game and on finding play-by-play info. Cheers, Alex ... ===== Alexander M. Kerr Department
        Message 3 of 3 , Jun 6, 2003
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          Dean,

          Thanks very much for the formula on estimating
          possessions per game and on finding play-by-play info.

          Cheers,

          Alex
          --- Dean Oliver <deano@...> wrote:
          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com,
          > "oxymonocanthus"
          > <oxymonocanthus@y...> wrote:
          > > Gday all!
          > >
          > > Im trying to build a computer simulation of
          > basketball to help test
          > > the idea of a "hot hand" or being "in a zone."
          > Basically, i hope to
          > > compare the sequence of shots attempted by a
          > player to shots made
          > at
          > > random (conditioning on past stats) to see when
          > indeed a player has
          > a
          > > streak going thats better than random chance. My
          > hypothesis is that
          > > hot streaks are more often wrongly attributed to a
          > player whose
          > play
          > > is not significantly better than their average
          > play.
          > >
          >
          > Gilovich and Tversky and someone else did a full
          > psychological study
          > of the effect years ago. Definitely something you
          > should look into.
          > I've got the reference somewhere.
          >
          > > Does anyone know of a source for these stats?:
          > >
          > > a) Ive seen stats for how many times a player
          > commits a foul. But
          > are
          > > there online records of the number of times that a
          > player was been
          > > fouled by others?
          > >
          >
          > Not really. YOu can get them from online
          > play-by-plays. DeanL is
          > putting together a db with this info.
          >
          > > b) How about number of possessions in a game or
          > season?
          > >
          >
          > Can be statistically estimated from
          >
          > FGA - OR + TO + 0.4*FTA
          >
          > Calculate for the offense and defense, then average.
          > They're almost
          > always within a couple percent of each other. BobC
          > has a different
          > formula, as does John, but they're all pretty
          > comparable. I have a
          > more advanced form.
          >
          > > c) Are there websites that give the order in which
          > a player made
          > his
          > > shots?
          >
          > ? The online play-by-plays -- is that what you're
          > looking for? Look
          > at nba.com.
          >
          > DeanO
          >
          >
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          =====
          Alexander M. Kerr
          Department of Ecology, Evolution, etc.
          University of California
          Santa Barbara CA 93106 USA
          Tel: 1.805.893.2764/737.1602
          Fax: 1.805.893.3777

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