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Re: WNBA turnaround: a mathematical approach

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  • Dean Oliver
    Forgot to finish the formula on Win% calculations... ... is ... Win%A_B = [Win%A*(1-Win%B)]/[Win%A*(1-Win%B)+(1-Win%A)*Win%B]
    Message 1 of 11 , Aug 17, 2001
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      Forgot to finish the formula on Win% calculations...

      >
      > > > First, a 65-17 team vs. a 17-65 team should win about 94% of the
      > time,
      > > > so good guess.
      > > >
      > > > Second, in baseball, a 104-58 team vs. a 58-104 team should win
      > about
      > > > 76% of the time, so about 3/4, not 2/3.
      > > >
      > >
      > > Where are you getting these numbers? Either way, the difference
      is
      >
      > Bill James:
      >
      > Win% Team A vs. Team B
      >

      Win%A_B = [Win%A*(1-Win%B)]/[Win%A*(1-Win%B)+(1-Win%A)*Win%B]

      http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/methdesc.html#matchup

      has the detailed info.
    • Dean LaVergne
      ... From: Charles Steinhardt [mailto:charles@princeton.edu] 2) There is no equivalent of the free throw in baseball, and in fact all new stadia are forced to
      Message 2 of 11 , Aug 17, 2001
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        -----Original Message-----
        From: Charles Steinhardt [mailto:charles@...]



        2) There is no equivalent of the free throw in baseball, and in fact all
        new stadia are forced to put some sort of blue/black screen in
        straightaway center so that the batter has a good line of sight.  Fans can
        have a very direct impact in basketball that I'd guess is worth as much as
        5 points per game (some in increasing the home FT%, some in decreasing
        that of opponents.  Maybe somebody has statistics on this? 


        [Dean LaVergne] It doesn't seem to hold out.  For the last ten years:
         
        Free Throw Percentage:
         
        Season   Away    Home    Diff
        1992    75.62%  76.12%   0.51%
        1993    75.19%  75.65%   0.46%
        1994    73.60%  73.25%  -0.35%
        1995    73.49%  73.84%   0.34%
        1996    73.91%  74.03%   0.12%
        1997    73.98%  73.67%  -0.31%
        1998    73.54%  73.82%   0.28%
        1999    72.29%  73.32%   1.02%
        2000    74.55%  75.44%   0.89%
        2001    74.48%  74.99%   0.51%
                   
                   
        However, free throws attempted seem a little more significant:
                    
                   
        Season   Away    Home    Diff    % Diff
        1992   28,522  30,553   2,031    7.12%
        1993   29,715  31,659   1,944    6.54%
        1994   28,688  30,131   1,443    5.03%
        1995   29,248  30,690   1,442    4.93%
        1996   30,587  32,178   1,591    5.20%
        1997   29,522  30,272     750    2.54%
        1998   30,704  31,799   1,095    3.57%
        1999   18,399  19,000     601    3.27%
        2000   29,410  30,352     942    3.20%
        2001   28,570  29,308     738    2.58%
                            
        Dean L
         
      • Charles Steinhardt
        Very interesting (and obviously not what I d expect looking from the point of view of a fan). Anybody know why the FT disparity has dropped (and how strongly
        Message 3 of 11 , Aug 17, 2001
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          Very interesting (and obviously not what I'd expect looking from the point
          of view of a fan).

          Anybody know why the FT disparity has dropped (and how strongly that
          disparity correlates with winning %)? Have there been new instructions to
          officials?

          On Fri, 17 Aug 2001, Dean LaVergne wrote:

          >
          > -----Original Message-----
          > From: Charles Steinhardt [mailto:charles@...]
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > 2) There is no equivalent of the free throw in baseball, and in fact all
          > new stadia are forced to put some sort of blue/black screen in
          > straightaway center so that the batter has a good line of sight. Fans can
          > have a very direct impact in basketball that I'd guess is worth as much as
          > 5 points per game (some in increasing the home FT%, some in decreasing
          > that of opponents. Maybe somebody has statistics on this?
          >
          >
          > [Dean LaVergne] It doesn't seem to hold out. For the last ten years:
          >
          > Free Throw Percentage:
          >
          > Season Away Home Diff
          > 1992 75.62% 76.12% 0.51%
          > 1993 75.19% 75.65% 0.46%
          > 1994 73.60% 73.25% -0.35%
          > 1995 73.49% 73.84% 0.34%
          > 1996 73.91% 74.03% 0.12%
          > 1997 73.98% 73.67% -0.31%
          > 1998 73.54% 73.82% 0.28%
          > 1999 72.29% 73.32% 1.02%
          > 2000 74.55% 75.44% 0.89%
          > 2001 74.48% 74.99% 0.51%
          >
          >
          > However, free throws attempted seem a little more significant:
          >
          >
          > Season Away Home Diff % Diff
          > 1992 28,522 30,553 2,031 7.12%
          > 1993 29,715 31,659 1,944 6.54%
          > 1994 28,688 30,131 1,443 5.03%
          > 1995 29,248 30,690 1,442 4.93%
          > 1996 30,587 32,178 1,591 5.20%
          > 1997 29,522 30,272 750 2.54%
          > 1998 30,704 31,799 1,095 3.57%
          > 1999 18,399 19,000 601 3.27%
          > 2000 29,410 30,352 942 3.20%
          > 2001 28,570 29,308 738 2.58%
          >
          >
          > Dean L
          >
          >
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