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games won and lost

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  • John Grasso
    Has anyone ever calculated a very basic simple stat - games won and lost by player? This can be done in one of several ways - - games won by player s team
    Message 1 of 2 , Feb 22, 2001
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      Has anyone ever calculated a very basic simple stat - games won and lost by
      player?

      This can be done in one of several ways -
      - games won by player's team whether or not he played in the game

      - games won by player's team when he played in the game

      - games won by player's team when he played x minutes in the game

      It might lead to some interesting results.

      John Grasso

      ----- Original Message -----
      From: Dean Oliver <deano@...>
      To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Thursday, February 22, 2001 9:37 AM
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] More shot clock effects


      >
      > Following message 10, the distribution of offensive ratings as a
      > function of time left on the clock (through 3 games) --
      >
      > t left Scores PossExt EndPoss Pts Rtg
      > 0-3 39 13 46 80 94.1
      > 4-6 31 10 42 64 87.7
      > 7-9 45 17 44 94 105.6
      > 10-12 39 12 48 77 88.5
      > 13-15 32 11 31 66 104.8
      > 16-18 16 12 23 33 84.6
      > 19-21 35 6 28 69 109.5
      > 22-24 17 13 11 34 121.4
      > Totals 254 94 273 517 98.1
      >
      > It still looks like the quick scores are most efficient, due both to
      > fast breaks and offensive rebounds. Need several more games to make
      > the stats stable.
      >
      > One thing that has become clear as I've gone through this is that
      > scoring off of offensive rebounds is at a higher rate than regular
      > possessions. Generally "knew" that before, but now it can be
      > quantified.
      >
      > Further, one of the games I looked at was a Philly game. It was also
      > evident in that game that Iverson's misses got rebounded more often
      > than others. I don't know how consistent that pattern would be, but
      > it does make some sense.
      >
      > Dean Oliver
      > Journal of Basketball Studies
      >
      >
      >
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    • Dean Oliver
      ... lost by ... I have done all but the 3rd option before. I ve never put together much of a study other than one section of this article:
      Message 2 of 2 , Feb 22, 2001
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Grasso" <johng@s...> wrote:
        > Has anyone ever calculated a very basic simple stat - games won and
        lost by
        > player?
        >
        > This can be done in one of several ways -
        > - games won by player's team whether or not he played in the game
        >
        > - games won by player's team when he played in the game
        >
        > - games won by player's team when he played x minutes in the game
        >
        > It might lead to some interesting results.

        I have done all but the 3rd option before. I've never put together
        much of a study other than one section of this article:

        http://www.tsoft.com/~deano/articles/iwldef.html

        For the '97-98 season, Adam Keefe was the best looking at your 2nd
        bullet. You end up with very strong team correlations within one
        season. Over the course of a career, you would hopefully lose some
        of that, but it wouldn't distinguish between Stockton and Malone,
        Jordan and Pippen, for example.

        The third bullet is a little weird. What I have found is that
        minutes played don't correlate very well with winning for a lot of
        players. For instance, you take out your starters if you are winning
        by 30 in the 3rd quarter, so their minutes are low in this case.
        Further, we know that if the good players don't get much playing
        time, the team generally won't win much. The two factors tend to
        cancel each other out. Perhaps you could look at non-blowouts. I've
        never done that.

        Another thing that was once suggested to me was to look for similar
        boxscores, where teammates all played similar minutes. That should,
        by their thinking, predict how well the team did. So if Seattle
        played LA twice and all their guys played about the same number of
        minutes, they should score the same, allow the same. I've never
        tested it.

        Dean Oliver
        Journal of Basketball Studies
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