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Game Predictions

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  • Dean Oliver
    There are a lot of methods for predicting games out there. Probably the best is just Vegas line. I posted a method at
    Message 1 of 4 , Feb 22, 2001
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      There are a lot of methods for predicting games out there. Probably
      the best is just Vegas' line. I posted a method at

      http://www.tsoft.com/~deano/articles/kalman.html

      This is similar to what Ken Massey uses at

      http://www.mratings.com/rate/nba-p.htm

      and Massey uses the same system for college football, where he is a
      contributor to the infamous BCS.

      Someone did some work for me recently to study what are optimal ways
      to use the methods and to look at how good the methods could be. He
      generally found that they can only predict games at about a 65% clip,
      which is about what Massey is getting this year.

      Has anyone seen other systems that legitimately do better?

      How does Bob Chaikin's simulator do?

      One of the good things about these systems is that they do come up
      with a strength of schedule evaluation. One of the teams I am
      working with is very interested in using such a thing for evaluating
      college players. I know the RPI has an approximate strength of
      schedule method. Are there others?

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
    • aussievamp2
      ... ways ... He ... clip, ... This is an area of interest for me, have looked at this for several sports, and some academic conclusions seem to be that a
      Message 2 of 4 , Jul 4, 2002
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
        >
        > Someone did some work for me recently to study what are optimal
        ways
        > to use the methods and to look at how good the methods could be.
        He
        > generally found that they can only predict games at about a 65%
        clip,
        > which is about what Massey is getting this year.
        >
        > Has anyone seen other systems that legitimately do better?
        >

        This is an area of interest for me, have looked at this for several
        sports, and some academic conclusions seem to be that a variety of
        methods will get around the same results. The amount
        of 'information' in the scores used to produce the next prediction
        has an 'upper limit'. Seems to be pretty much right. So 60-70% is
        your range, and 70% perhaps a little unlikely for basketball?
      • HoopStudies
        ... I may not answer all of your posts today. I m swamped. Let me point you to Ken Massey s website where he makes predictions. He is at
        Message 3 of 4 , Jul 8, 2002
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "aussievamp2" <rnmscott@b...> wrote:
          > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
          > >
          > > Someone did some work for me recently to study what are optimal
          > ways
          > > to use the methods and to look at how good the methods could be.
          > He
          > > generally found that they can only predict games at about a 65%
          > clip,
          > > which is about what Massey is getting this year.
          > >
          > > Has anyone seen other systems that legitimately do better?
          > >
          >
          > This is an area of interest for me, have looked at this for several
          > sports, and some academic conclusions seem to be that a variety of
          > methods will get around the same results. The amount
          > of 'information' in the scores used to produce the next prediction
          > has an 'upper limit'. Seems to be pretty much right. So 60-70% is
          > your range, and 70% perhaps a little unlikely for basketball?

          I may not answer all of your posts today. I'm swamped. Let me point
          you to Ken Massey's website where he makes predictions. He is at

          http://www.mratings.com/

          or for NBA predictions

          http://www.mratings.com/rate/nba-p.htm

          You can see he was 64-65% right. He did a pretty good job getting
          the percentiles right, too.

          Do I think 70% is possible with basketball? Yes, Massey does over
          72% for college men's hoops and about 76% for college women's hoops.
          It really depends upon the level of competition and the nature of the
          game. Massey posts predictions for all sorts of sports and all sorts
          of levels, making it kind of neat to compare.

          DeanO
        • Richard Scott
          Yeah, I know about this guy. Have even corresponded occasionally, what I mean is having read the academic research that has been published about this sort of
          Message 4 of 4 , Jul 8, 2002
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            Yeah, I know about this guy. Have even corresponded occasionally, what I
            mean is having read the academic research that has been published about this
            sort of thing, and having seen tons of them, that that is sort of the basic
            limit. To move a little past that you need to start taking other things
            into account - injuries, scheduling, motivation, statistics, etc., etc.

            You can get higher percentages when you have something with huge mismatches
            like say, college basketball - e.g. if there are a lot of as good as 100%
            victories in there, then the 'correct prediction' percentage will go up,
            compared to any professional sport in general where the talent levels are
            much more even.

            -----Original Message-----
            From: HoopStudies [mailto:deano@...]
            Sent: July 08, 2002 6:51 PM
            To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
            Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Game Predictions


            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "aussievamp2" <rnmscott@b...> wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
            > >
            > > Someone did some work for me recently to study what are optimal
            > ways
            > > to use the methods and to look at how good the methods could be.
            > He
            > > generally found that they can only predict games at about a 65%
            > clip,
            > > which is about what Massey is getting this year.
            > >
            > > Has anyone seen other systems that legitimately do better?
            > >
            >
            > This is an area of interest for me, have looked at this for several
            > sports, and some academic conclusions seem to be that a variety of
            > methods will get around the same results. The amount
            > of 'information' in the scores used to produce the next prediction
            > has an 'upper limit'. Seems to be pretty much right. So 60-70% is
            > your range, and 70% perhaps a little unlikely for basketball?

            I may not answer all of your posts today. I'm swamped. Let me point
            you to Ken Massey's website where he makes predictions. He is at

            http://www.mratings.com/

            or for NBA predictions

            http://www.mratings.com/rate/nba-p.htm

            You can see he was 64-65% right. He did a pretty good job getting
            the percentiles right, too.

            Do I think 70% is possible with basketball? Yes, Massey does over
            72% for college men's hoops and about 76% for college women's hoops.
            It really depends upon the level of competition and the nature of the
            game. Massey posts predictions for all sorts of sports and all sorts
            of levels, making it kind of neat to compare.

            DeanO



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