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Re: Walker's Boston Correlation

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  • aaronkoo
    ... Celts ... in ... below- ... has ... interesting, ... Francis. ... like to see? I don t ... In Philly, supposedly Van Horn was going to be the 2nd guy that
    Message 1 of 11 , May 9, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
      > > > I haven't seen the original ESPN article; Ed's stats on the
      Celts'
      > > winning % are certainly attention-getting, but to really put them
      in
      > > context we'd need to know how it compares to other teams and
      > > players. E.g. how do the 76ers do when Iverson is above- or
      below-
      > > average in his Manley creds? (They seem to usually win when he
      has
      > > one of his superman 40+ point games; I don't know however if the
      > > correlation would be as strong for his more average games.)
      > > >
      > > > T-Wolves and Garnett? Warriors and Arenas? Magic and McGrady?
      > > And perhaps most relevantly, Celtics and Pierce?
      > >
      > > All good examples to look at. More subtle ones could be
      interesting,
      > > too -- like Detroit and Chauncey Billups or Houston and Steve
      Francis.
      > >
      >
      > I'm just preparing the data now. Are there any other players you'd
      like to see? I don't
      > think it would be that much more trouble to include a few more.

      In Philly, supposedly Van Horn was going to be the 2nd guy that is
      important.

      In NO, I'd wonder about Mashburn and Davis' influences.

      In Miami, Eddie Jones.

      In Toronto, it's pretty clear that Vince Carter was important this
      year. The team was much better with him than without him. Not sure
      if the kind of analysis you're doing would show anything.

      Portland is one of the most annoying teams I've seen. They have a
      lot of balance, but I've never been convinced that they should be so
      balanced. The guy who stands out there as a potential driver (though
      in the same sense as Walker) is Bonzi Wells. He can be a
      tremendously valuable player when on, but doesn't know as well as the
      others when to put that shot away when he's bricking.

      Dallas and Michael Finley.

      Good enough from my end.
    • John Hollinger
      I d be interested to see the data from the year before and see if it held up. One thing that may be producing a larger effect than expected is that Walker
      Message 2 of 11 , May 9, 2003
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        I'd be interested to see the data from the year before and see if it
        held up. One thing that may be producing a larger 'effect' than
        expected is that Walker has obviously been playing with some kind of
        injury during the second half of the year -- all his numbers went in
        the toilet and have continued to do so in the playoffs -- and during
        that same stretch the Celtics, not surprisingly, played far worse
        than during the season's first half.

        So we aren't seeing results of teams shutting down Walker as much as
        we are seeing the result of Walker's health shutting him down, and
        thus are an artifact of his current hobbled state rather than of his
        importance to the Celtics.





        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "aaronkoo" <deano@r...> wrote:
        > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada"
        <tamada@o...>
        > wrote:
        > > [...]
        > >
        > > TOTAL TEAM TEAM minus WALKER (WIPS)
        > >
        > > Walker |tmPts Opppts poss | EffFG% MC Pts TotalFG% OffRtg
        > poss
        > > --------+------------------+--------------------------------------
        --
        > -
        > > <AvgMC | 87.6 91.7 88.6 | 47.5% 81.4 74.0 47.9% 108.2
        > 68.8
        > > >AvgMC | 97.2 94.4 89.9 | 48.2% 81.5 73.1 47.9% 112.0
        > 65.6
        > > | |
        > > <AvgFGA | 93.2 93.8 91.3 | 47.2% 86.7 77.2 46.0% 107.7
        > 71.9
        > > >AvgFGA | 92.2 92.4 87.6 | 48.5% 76.6 70.0 49.7% 112.5
        > 62.6
        > > | |
        > > <AvgFG% | 89.7 93.0 90.0 | 48.6% 80.7 73.5 47.8% 110.1
        > 67.2
        > > >AvgFG% | 95.5 93.2 88.6 | 47.2% 82.3 73.5 48.0% 110.1
        > 67.1
        > >
        > > [...]
        > >
        > >
        > > Of which there are many. The team's success seems to be largely
        > dependant on Walker's performance - I'd hate to think that he alone
        > is just as responsible for his good games as his bad games.
        > >
        > >
        > > Well if there were any player for whom those statements would be
        > true (team success largely dependent on a player's performance, and
        > his performance not strongly related to the opposition's apparent
        > defensive strategies), it'd be Walker. He's surely the captain of
        > the no-conscience team when it comes to shooting and keeping
        shooting
        > regardless of the situation. When this works, great, when it
        > doesn't he shoots his team out of games. And it may well be the
        case
        > that his good games and bad games are largely determined by chance
        > rather than the opponents' choice of defensive strategies, given
        > Walker's apparent imperviousness to changing his shot selection.
        > >
        >
        > I think that there are other examples like Walker, but MikeT's
        > statement that he is "captain of the no-conscience team" seems
        pretty
        > accurate. I have looked at Iverson's behavior a bit and I don't
        see
        > quite as strong a correlation as Walker seems to be showing (though
        I
        > did it differently). Iverson does draw strong defensive attention
        to
        > help his teammates, whereas Walker launches shots and it's not
        clear
        > how much defensive help he draws, especially with Pierce around and
        > with Walker's rep as a decent passer.
        >
        > > The WIPS numbers above however suggest that the non-Walker
        Celtics
        > do benefit from good games from 'Twan, at least as measured by
        their
        > offensive rating, and based on his MC and FGA performances.
        > >
        > > I haven't seen the original ESPN article; Ed's stats on the
        Celts'
        > winning % are certainly attention-getting, but to really put them
        in
        > context we'd need to know how it compares to other teams and
        > players. E.g. how do the 76ers do when Iverson is above- or below-
        > average in his Manley creds? (They seem to usually win when he has
        > one of his superman 40+ point games; I don't know however if the
        > correlation would be as strong for his more average games.)
        > >
        > > T-Wolves and Garnett? Warriors and Arenas? Magic and McGrady?
        > And perhaps most relevantly, Celtics and Pierce?
        >
        > All good examples to look at. More subtle ones could be
        interesting,
        > too -- like Detroit and Chauncey Billups or Houston and Steve
        Francis.
        >
        > You do have to worry about blowouts, but with the help of DeanL's
        db,
        > I think we can do really well handling this in the long run.
        >
        > DeanO
      • igorkupfer@rogers.com
        ... From: John Hollinger To: Sent: Friday, May 09, 2003 7:22 PM Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Walker s
        Message 3 of 11 , May 9, 2003
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          ----- Original Message -----
          From: "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@...>
          To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
          Sent: Friday, May 09, 2003 7:22 PM
          Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Walker's Boston Correlation


          > I'd be interested to see the data from the year before and see if it
          > held up. One thing that may be producing a larger 'effect' than
          > expected is that Walker has obviously been playing with some kind of
          > injury during the second half of the year -- all his numbers went in
          > the toilet and have continued to do so in the playoffs -- and during
          > that same stretch the Celtics, not surprisingly, played far worse
          > than during the season's first half.
          >
          > So we aren't seeing results of teams shutting down Walker as much as
          > we are seeing the result of Walker's health shutting him down, and
          > thus are an artifact of his current hobbled state rather than of his
          > importance to the Celtics.
          >
          >

          Looks like you're on to something.

          01-02 season, Celtics stats with Antoine Walker's subtracted

          Pts OppPts EffFG% OppEffFG%
          <avg 92.7 93.0 47.5% 46.6%
          >avg 100.0 95.3 49.1% 46.8%

          Here we see something different: when Walker has a bad game, the rest of the Cs also
          have bad games -- perhaps because the teams they face have better defenses.... Nope,
          just checked - the teams against which AW had his better games were defenses just as
          strong as those against which he had his poor performances: 103.0 vs 102.3, although
          the difference is not significant.

          ed
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