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Re: Walker's Boston Correlation

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  • aaronkoo
    ... poss ... - ... 68.8 ... 65.6 ... 71.9 ... 62.6 ... 67.2 ... 67.1 ... dependant on Walker s performance - I d hate to think that he alone is just as
    Message 1 of 11 , May 9, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
      wrote:
      > [...]
      >
      > TOTAL TEAM TEAM minus WALKER (WIPS)
      >
      > Walker |tmPts Opppts poss | EffFG% MC Pts TotalFG% OffRtg
      poss
      > --------+------------------+----------------------------------------
      -
      > <AvgMC | 87.6 91.7 88.6 | 47.5% 81.4 74.0 47.9% 108.2
      68.8
      > >AvgMC | 97.2 94.4 89.9 | 48.2% 81.5 73.1 47.9% 112.0
      65.6
      > | |
      > <AvgFGA | 93.2 93.8 91.3 | 47.2% 86.7 77.2 46.0% 107.7
      71.9
      > >AvgFGA | 92.2 92.4 87.6 | 48.5% 76.6 70.0 49.7% 112.5
      62.6
      > | |
      > <AvgFG% | 89.7 93.0 90.0 | 48.6% 80.7 73.5 47.8% 110.1
      67.2
      > >AvgFG% | 95.5 93.2 88.6 | 47.2% 82.3 73.5 48.0% 110.1
      67.1
      >
      > [...]
      >
      >
      > Of which there are many. The team's success seems to be largely
      dependant on Walker's performance - I'd hate to think that he alone
      is just as responsible for his good games as his bad games.
      >
      >
      > Well if there were any player for whom those statements would be
      true (team success largely dependent on a player's performance, and
      his performance not strongly related to the opposition's apparent
      defensive strategies), it'd be Walker. He's surely the captain of
      the no-conscience team when it comes to shooting and keeping shooting
      regardless of the situation. When this works, great, when it
      doesn't he shoots his team out of games. And it may well be the case
      that his good games and bad games are largely determined by chance
      rather than the opponents' choice of defensive strategies, given
      Walker's apparent imperviousness to changing his shot selection.
      >

      I think that there are other examples like Walker, but MikeT's
      statement that he is "captain of the no-conscience team" seems pretty
      accurate. I have looked at Iverson's behavior a bit and I don't see
      quite as strong a correlation as Walker seems to be showing (though I
      did it differently). Iverson does draw strong defensive attention to
      help his teammates, whereas Walker launches shots and it's not clear
      how much defensive help he draws, especially with Pierce around and
      with Walker's rep as a decent passer.

      > The WIPS numbers above however suggest that the non-Walker Celtics
      do benefit from good games from 'Twan, at least as measured by their
      offensive rating, and based on his MC and FGA performances.
      >
      > I haven't seen the original ESPN article; Ed's stats on the Celts'
      winning % are certainly attention-getting, but to really put them in
      context we'd need to know how it compares to other teams and
      players. E.g. how do the 76ers do when Iverson is above- or below-
      average in his Manley creds? (They seem to usually win when he has
      one of his superman 40+ point games; I don't know however if the
      correlation would be as strong for his more average games.)
      >
      > T-Wolves and Garnett? Warriors and Arenas? Magic and McGrady?
      And perhaps most relevantly, Celtics and Pierce?

      All good examples to look at. More subtle ones could be interesting,
      too -- like Detroit and Chauncey Billups or Houston and Steve Francis.

      You do have to worry about blowouts, but with the help of DeanL's db,
      I think we can do really well handling this in the long run.

      DeanO
    • igorkupfer@rogers.com
      ... From: aaronkoo To: Sent: Friday, May 09, 2003 1:20 PM Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Walker s Boston
      Message 2 of 11 , May 9, 2003
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        ----- Original Message -----
        From: "aaronkoo" <deano@...>
        To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
        Sent: Friday, May 09, 2003 1:20 PM
        Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Walker's Boston Correlation


        <snip>
        >
        > I think that there are other examples like Walker, but MikeT's
        > statement that he is "captain of the no-conscience team" seems pretty
        > accurate. I have looked at Iverson's behavior a bit and I don't see
        > quite as strong a correlation as Walker seems to be showing (though I
        > did it differently). Iverson does draw strong defensive attention to
        > help his teammates, whereas Walker launches shots and it's not clear
        > how much defensive help he draws, especially with Pierce around and
        > with Walker's rep as a decent passer.
        >

        Hmm. Walker vs Pierce would've been something to look at.

        > > I haven't seen the original ESPN article; Ed's stats on the Celts'
        > winning % are certainly attention-getting, but to really put them in
        > context we'd need to know how it compares to other teams and
        > players. E.g. how do the 76ers do when Iverson is above- or below-
        > average in his Manley creds? (They seem to usually win when he has
        > one of his superman 40+ point games; I don't know however if the
        > correlation would be as strong for his more average games.)
        > >
        > > T-Wolves and Garnett? Warriors and Arenas? Magic and McGrady?
        > And perhaps most relevantly, Celtics and Pierce?
        >
        > All good examples to look at. More subtle ones could be interesting,
        > too -- like Detroit and Chauncey Billups or Houston and Steve Francis.
        >

        I'm just preparing the data now. Are there any other players you'd like to see? I don't
        think it would be that much more trouble to include a few more.
      • aaronkoo
        ... Celts ... in ... below- ... has ... interesting, ... Francis. ... like to see? I don t ... In Philly, supposedly Van Horn was going to be the 2nd guy that
        Message 3 of 11 , May 9, 2003
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          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
          > > > I haven't seen the original ESPN article; Ed's stats on the
          Celts'
          > > winning % are certainly attention-getting, but to really put them
          in
          > > context we'd need to know how it compares to other teams and
          > > players. E.g. how do the 76ers do when Iverson is above- or
          below-
          > > average in his Manley creds? (They seem to usually win when he
          has
          > > one of his superman 40+ point games; I don't know however if the
          > > correlation would be as strong for his more average games.)
          > > >
          > > > T-Wolves and Garnett? Warriors and Arenas? Magic and McGrady?
          > > And perhaps most relevantly, Celtics and Pierce?
          > >
          > > All good examples to look at. More subtle ones could be
          interesting,
          > > too -- like Detroit and Chauncey Billups or Houston and Steve
          Francis.
          > >
          >
          > I'm just preparing the data now. Are there any other players you'd
          like to see? I don't
          > think it would be that much more trouble to include a few more.

          In Philly, supposedly Van Horn was going to be the 2nd guy that is
          important.

          In NO, I'd wonder about Mashburn and Davis' influences.

          In Miami, Eddie Jones.

          In Toronto, it's pretty clear that Vince Carter was important this
          year. The team was much better with him than without him. Not sure
          if the kind of analysis you're doing would show anything.

          Portland is one of the most annoying teams I've seen. They have a
          lot of balance, but I've never been convinced that they should be so
          balanced. The guy who stands out there as a potential driver (though
          in the same sense as Walker) is Bonzi Wells. He can be a
          tremendously valuable player when on, but doesn't know as well as the
          others when to put that shot away when he's bricking.

          Dallas and Michael Finley.

          Good enough from my end.
        • John Hollinger
          I d be interested to see the data from the year before and see if it held up. One thing that may be producing a larger effect than expected is that Walker
          Message 4 of 11 , May 9, 2003
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            I'd be interested to see the data from the year before and see if it
            held up. One thing that may be producing a larger 'effect' than
            expected is that Walker has obviously been playing with some kind of
            injury during the second half of the year -- all his numbers went in
            the toilet and have continued to do so in the playoffs -- and during
            that same stretch the Celtics, not surprisingly, played far worse
            than during the season's first half.

            So we aren't seeing results of teams shutting down Walker as much as
            we are seeing the result of Walker's health shutting him down, and
            thus are an artifact of his current hobbled state rather than of his
            importance to the Celtics.





            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "aaronkoo" <deano@r...> wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada"
            <tamada@o...>
            > wrote:
            > > [...]
            > >
            > > TOTAL TEAM TEAM minus WALKER (WIPS)
            > >
            > > Walker |tmPts Opppts poss | EffFG% MC Pts TotalFG% OffRtg
            > poss
            > > --------+------------------+--------------------------------------
            --
            > -
            > > <AvgMC | 87.6 91.7 88.6 | 47.5% 81.4 74.0 47.9% 108.2
            > 68.8
            > > >AvgMC | 97.2 94.4 89.9 | 48.2% 81.5 73.1 47.9% 112.0
            > 65.6
            > > | |
            > > <AvgFGA | 93.2 93.8 91.3 | 47.2% 86.7 77.2 46.0% 107.7
            > 71.9
            > > >AvgFGA | 92.2 92.4 87.6 | 48.5% 76.6 70.0 49.7% 112.5
            > 62.6
            > > | |
            > > <AvgFG% | 89.7 93.0 90.0 | 48.6% 80.7 73.5 47.8% 110.1
            > 67.2
            > > >AvgFG% | 95.5 93.2 88.6 | 47.2% 82.3 73.5 48.0% 110.1
            > 67.1
            > >
            > > [...]
            > >
            > >
            > > Of which there are many. The team's success seems to be largely
            > dependant on Walker's performance - I'd hate to think that he alone
            > is just as responsible for his good games as his bad games.
            > >
            > >
            > > Well if there were any player for whom those statements would be
            > true (team success largely dependent on a player's performance, and
            > his performance not strongly related to the opposition's apparent
            > defensive strategies), it'd be Walker. He's surely the captain of
            > the no-conscience team when it comes to shooting and keeping
            shooting
            > regardless of the situation. When this works, great, when it
            > doesn't he shoots his team out of games. And it may well be the
            case
            > that his good games and bad games are largely determined by chance
            > rather than the opponents' choice of defensive strategies, given
            > Walker's apparent imperviousness to changing his shot selection.
            > >
            >
            > I think that there are other examples like Walker, but MikeT's
            > statement that he is "captain of the no-conscience team" seems
            pretty
            > accurate. I have looked at Iverson's behavior a bit and I don't
            see
            > quite as strong a correlation as Walker seems to be showing (though
            I
            > did it differently). Iverson does draw strong defensive attention
            to
            > help his teammates, whereas Walker launches shots and it's not
            clear
            > how much defensive help he draws, especially with Pierce around and
            > with Walker's rep as a decent passer.
            >
            > > The WIPS numbers above however suggest that the non-Walker
            Celtics
            > do benefit from good games from 'Twan, at least as measured by
            their
            > offensive rating, and based on his MC and FGA performances.
            > >
            > > I haven't seen the original ESPN article; Ed's stats on the
            Celts'
            > winning % are certainly attention-getting, but to really put them
            in
            > context we'd need to know how it compares to other teams and
            > players. E.g. how do the 76ers do when Iverson is above- or below-
            > average in his Manley creds? (They seem to usually win when he has
            > one of his superman 40+ point games; I don't know however if the
            > correlation would be as strong for his more average games.)
            > >
            > > T-Wolves and Garnett? Warriors and Arenas? Magic and McGrady?
            > And perhaps most relevantly, Celtics and Pierce?
            >
            > All good examples to look at. More subtle ones could be
            interesting,
            > too -- like Detroit and Chauncey Billups or Houston and Steve
            Francis.
            >
            > You do have to worry about blowouts, but with the help of DeanL's
            db,
            > I think we can do really well handling this in the long run.
            >
            > DeanO
          • igorkupfer@rogers.com
            ... From: John Hollinger To: Sent: Friday, May 09, 2003 7:22 PM Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Walker s
            Message 5 of 11 , May 9, 2003
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              ----- Original Message -----
              From: "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@...>
              To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
              Sent: Friday, May 09, 2003 7:22 PM
              Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Walker's Boston Correlation


              > I'd be interested to see the data from the year before and see if it
              > held up. One thing that may be producing a larger 'effect' than
              > expected is that Walker has obviously been playing with some kind of
              > injury during the second half of the year -- all his numbers went in
              > the toilet and have continued to do so in the playoffs -- and during
              > that same stretch the Celtics, not surprisingly, played far worse
              > than during the season's first half.
              >
              > So we aren't seeing results of teams shutting down Walker as much as
              > we are seeing the result of Walker's health shutting him down, and
              > thus are an artifact of his current hobbled state rather than of his
              > importance to the Celtics.
              >
              >

              Looks like you're on to something.

              01-02 season, Celtics stats with Antoine Walker's subtracted

              Pts OppPts EffFG% OppEffFG%
              <avg 92.7 93.0 47.5% 46.6%
              >avg 100.0 95.3 49.1% 46.8%

              Here we see something different: when Walker has a bad game, the rest of the Cs also
              have bad games -- perhaps because the teams they face have better defenses.... Nope,
              just checked - the teams against which AW had his better games were defenses just as
              strong as those against which he had his poor performances: 103.0 vs 102.3, although
              the difference is not significant.

              ed
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