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Re: When to leave a game?

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  • aaronkoo
    ... something ... on the article, but ... p. 43: We remark that for simplicity we will think of a team s unconstrained mode as its best scoring offensive
    Message 1 of 6 , May 7, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
      > > I wasn't very impressed with that article on pace management,
      > > though. They pretty much assumed the answer that they got,
      > > I discussed with schtevie offline for a while.
      > >
      > > Not sure if there are any others.
      > >
      > > DeanO
      > Can you post some of your comments? I tried to follow the argument
      on the article, but
      > the math was slightly beyond me.

      p. 43: "We remark that for simplicity we will think of a team's
      unconstrained mode as its best scoring offensive style of play versus
      the current opponent."

      This is the assumption that ruins everything. They assume that there
      is exactly one pace at which the teams is optimal, rather than an
      array of paces or a range of paces.

      p. 44: "A popular belief among sports analysts is that, when the
      score is tied or a team is ahead, a lengthy possession is better than
      a short possessions. Surprisingly this belief, as a general
      statement is false."

      This is the kind of analysis that is nice to do, but they biased
      their answer by assuming that a team gets worse by holding the ball.
      Now that may be true if they hold it too long -- I have seen that --
      but they need more to strengthen such a statement.

      Figures 1 through 3 use the notation (P, time units), where P is the
      probability of scoring and time units is how many time units each
      possession takes. Note that in each case, the intermediate time unit
      case (=2) has the highest P. If they had left all the P the same and
      just changed the pace, their arguments would have been potentially
      stronger, but now their results are clouded by changing P.

      Too bad.

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