Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

When to leave a game?

Expand Messages
  • aaronkoo
    Watching the Laker game last night, a lot of people left the bar with 2 minutes to go and the Lakers down 6. Shaq had just fouled out and they considered it
    Message 1 of 6 , May 6, 2003
    • 0 Attachment
      Watching the Laker game last night, a lot of people left the bar with
      2 minutes to go and the Lakers down 6. Shaq had just fouled out and
      they considered it over. The Lakers obviously made a push with Kobe
      making those 3's but didn't win. Should they have left so early? I
      guess they were right about the outcome, but it would be nice to know
      what the odds of winning are in that situation.

      Has anyone compiled such a thing? Is there research out there in
      game theory journals that discuss this?
    • bchaikin@aol.com
      Watching the Laker game last night, a lot of people left the bar with 2 minutes to go and the Lakers down 6. Shaq had just fouled out and they considered it
      Message 2 of 6 , May 6, 2003
      • 0 Attachment
        Watching the Laker game last night, a lot of people left the bar with 2 minutes to go and the Lakers down 6.  Shaq had just fouled out and they considered it over.  The Lakers obviously made a push with Kobe making those 3's but didn't win.  Should they have left so early?  I guess they were right about the outcome, but it would be nice to know what the odds of winning are in that situation.

        Has anyone compiled such a thing?  Is there research out there in game theory journals that discuss this? 

        is there really something such as a "game theory journal"? i've seen journals for pretty much every branch of science, math, medicine, etc, but to see something from academia that was actually keen to professional sports would be neat...

        bob chaikin
        bchaikin@...











      • aaronkoo
        ... game theory ... seen journals ... to see ... sports would ... Game theory comes about from sports, but also from politics. It often focuses on political
        Message 3 of 6 , May 6, 2003
        • 0 Attachment
          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, bchaikin@a... wrote:
          > Has anyone compiled such a thing? Is there research out there in
          game theory
          > journals that discuss this?
          >
          > is there really something such as a "game theory journal"? i've
          seen journals
          > for pretty much every branch of science, math, medicine, etc, but
          to see
          > something from academia that was actually keen to professional
          sports would
          > be neat...

          Game theory comes about from sports, but also from politics. It
          often focuses on political decisions. I know that was how I was
          introduced to "game theory" -- through Poli Sci 12 in college. Game
          theory rests on the fact that competing people have to outstrategize
          the opponent. Consider what they will do and try to optimally select
          a strategy to counter what they will do. The movie A Beautiful Mind
          was about John Nash, whose Nash Equilibrium theory is one of the
          centerpieces of game theory. This concept that there is an optimal
          set of strategies given the nature of the rules of a game helps
          determine both how to win and how to change the game so that the game
          itself arrives at better results (perhaps socioeconomically better,
          for example). Or, if we wanted to change basketball to increase
          scoring, we could wing it or you could do a serious analysis of what
          effect the rule changes may have, assuming that winning games is
          still the goal of all teams, regardless of pace.

          Besides that, I think SABR has an ongoing newsletter of baseball
          research. Chance magazine has statistical studies with one almost
          every issue on sports -- that's what I forwarded a little while ago.
          I wasn't very impressed with that article on pace management,
          though. They pretty much assumed the answer that they got, something
          I discussed with schtevie offline for a while.

          Not sure if there are any others.

          DeanO
        • igorkupfer@rogers.com
          ... From: aaronkoo To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, May 06, 2003 4:18 PM Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: When to leave a game?
          Message 4 of 6 , May 6, 2003
          • 0 Attachment
            ----- Original Message -----
            From: aaronkoo
            To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
            Sent: Tuesday, May 06, 2003 4:18 PM
            Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: When to leave a game?


            <snip, on game theory>

            > Besides that, I think SABR has an ongoing newsletter of baseball
            > research. Chance magazine has statistical studies with one almost
            > every issue on sports -- that's what I forwarded a little while ago.
            > I wasn't very impressed with that article on pace management,
            > though. They pretty much assumed the answer that they got, something
            > I discussed with schtevie offline for a while.
            >
            > Not sure if there are any others.
            >
            > DeanO


            Can you post some of your comments? I tried to follow the argument on the article, but
            the math was slightly beyond me.

            ed
          • aaronkoo
            ... on the article, but ... Will do. Hopefully tonight, but life/work may get in the way. Generally, they assumed that the percentage of possessions on which
            Message 5 of 6 , May 6, 2003
            • 0 Attachment
              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
              >
              >
              > Can you post some of your comments? I tried to follow the argument
              on the article, but
              > the math was slightly beyond me.

              Will do. Hopefully tonight, but life/work may get in the way.

              Generally, they assumed that the percentage of possessions on which a
              team scored was optimal at some pace and lower at either a higher or
              lower pace. Then they simulated the games and, sure enough, the team
              won fewer games at higher and lower paces than at their optimal
              pace. My point has been that we don't know where that optimal pace
              is and that the optimal pace in basketball may be actually a large
              range of paces. The average time of a possession is about 15 s and I
              believe that teams perform about equally well whether they use 10 s
              or 20 s (beyond about 20 s, rather, with <=3s on the clock, they do
              worse).

              DeanO
            • aaronkoo
              ... something ... on the article, but ... p. 43: We remark that for simplicity we will think of a team s unconstrained mode as its best scoring offensive
              Message 6 of 6 , May 7, 2003
              • 0 Attachment
                --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
                > > I wasn't very impressed with that article on pace management,
                > > though. They pretty much assumed the answer that they got,
                something
                > > I discussed with schtevie offline for a while.
                > >
                > > Not sure if there are any others.
                > >
                > > DeanO
                >
                >
                > Can you post some of your comments? I tried to follow the argument
                on the article, but
                > the math was slightly beyond me.

                p. 43: "We remark that for simplicity we will think of a team's
                unconstrained mode as its best scoring offensive style of play versus
                the current opponent."

                This is the assumption that ruins everything. They assume that there
                is exactly one pace at which the teams is optimal, rather than an
                array of paces or a range of paces.

                p. 44: "A popular belief among sports analysts is that, when the
                score is tied or a team is ahead, a lengthy possession is better than
                a short possessions. Surprisingly this belief, as a general
                statement is false."

                This is the kind of analysis that is nice to do, but they biased
                their answer by assuming that a team gets worse by holding the ball.
                Now that may be true if they hold it too long -- I have seen that --
                but they need more to strengthen such a statement.

                Figures 1 through 3 use the notation (P, time units), where P is the
                probability of scoring and time units is how many time units each
                possession takes. Note that in each case, the intermediate time unit
                case (=2) has the highest P. If they had left all the P the same and
                just changed the pace, their arguments would have been potentially
                stronger, but now their results are clouded by changing P.

                Too bad.

                DeanO
              Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.