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Re: Pace prediction

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  • aaronkoo
    ... Forest is about the same. I think we may have different senses of the magnitude of cost . Cost of 1% vs value of 8% would need to be weighed. In some
    Message 1 of 22 , Apr 17, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "schtevie2003" <schtevie@h...>
      wrote:
      > It is hard to keep an eye on the forest for all the trees in these
      > strings, so let me restate the larger "pace" argument:
      >
      > Except for milking the clock when ahead at the end of the game and
      > possibly the "shoot slow if you suck and hope you are lucky", I see
      > no way, theoretically, for a team to try and control game pace
      > without costing itself points and the likelihood of victory.
      >

      Forest is about the same. I think we may have different senses of
      the magnitude of "cost". Cost of 1% vs value of 8% would need to be
      weighed. In some cases, the cost will be greater than the benefit,
      I'm sure.

      > Can you give a graphical argument as to why the gain is greatest
      when
      > the expected loss is greatest. If I suppose a bell shaped curve

      It's in the book. But here's a try. Basically the bell curve
      describes the point difference between the 2 teams. Centered at +5
      for the favorite, spreading the distribution (which is all that
      taking a high risk/slow pace strategy does) causes the tail of the
      distribution go more across that 0 line (when the underdog wins). If
      it's centered at +1 (small favorite), a fair amount of the curve is
      already across the 0 line, so spreading the curve doesn't make much
      difference.

      Is that clear?

      >
      > Yeah sure it depends on assumptions, but that is the game...Just
      > trying to establish a hypothetical tradeoff to anchor our
      > expectations.

      I can add it to the list.
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