Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: Seattle Resurgence?

Expand Messages
  • aaronkoo
    ... the ... want to ... rebounding ... FG% is ... shooting ... obscured ... possession. ... Just to mention what I do -- I rarely see much advantage to small
    Message 1 of 34 , Apr 9, 2003
    • 0 Attachment
      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
      wrote:
      > Yeah, there's advantages and disadvantages to both approaches. On
      the
      > whole I side with Kevin, because with this sort of analysis we don't
      > want just a bottom line of scoring made and scores given up, we
      want to
      > to try to find out WHY -- including looking at off and def
      rebounding
      > stats. And TO% and FG% too -- is a team scoring more because its
      FG% is
      > up, or because its TO% is down? Or maybe it's FG% is unchanged, but
      > it's drawing more fouls (more FTA/minute or FTA/possession). Or
      shooting
      > and making more 3pt FGAs. These are all of interest, and get
      obscured
      > behind the overall bottom line measure of pts per big/common
      possession.
      >

      Just to mention what I do -- I rarely see much advantage to small
      possessions (or "plays", as I call them). I use possessions as a
      start then break things down to find out why a team is good
      offensively or defensively, just as Dean Smith has done for 40 years
      at Carolina and all the other coaches do. As he said in his books,
      it's a good quick screening measure, but he never says that it's the
      end-all.

      >
      > I also thing the "small possession" measure is better for measuring
      > game pace than the "big possession"/"common possession" measure is.
      > Because, suppose the Sonics averaged exactly two CPs per minute,
      both
      > before and after the trade. But perhaps before the trade, each CP
      > often consisted of this: FGMiss-OffRebd-FGA (which they might make
      or
      > miss, and in either case yield the ball to the other team).
      Whereas
      > after the trade, each CP consisted of this: FGA (which they might
      make
      > or miss, and yield the ball to the other team).

      I don't understand here. FGMiss-OR-FGA is a big negative number.

      In general, I do understand that possessions reflect "too much" in
      some way. If a team runs up and down the court but gets tons of
      offensive rebounds, the number may say that the game has slowed.
      That's why I do look at plays FGA+0.4*FTA+TO to get some sense for
      how this kind of thing -- though it rarely has much analytical value.


      DeanO
    • aaronkoo
      ... This is actually misleading. I won t say wrong, but misleading. Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive and without adjustment
      Message 34 of 34 , Apr 11, 2003
      • 0 Attachment
        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
        > What matters is that x points and y rebounds occurred in z minutes.

        This is actually misleading. I won't say wrong, but misleading.
        Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive
        and without adjustment for pace overweight players who just put up a
        lot of offensive stats _per minute_. And pace is mostly (not
        entirely) a function of a decision about pace, not ability (though
        ability has a small impact). How fast or slow teams play reflects
        primarily on their style not their substance. How many points and
        rebounds per minute reflects both style and substance. Removing pace
        more isolates the substance.

        The way common possessions do it is by isolating another variable in
        addition to minutes that is common between both teams on the floor.
        Both teams have 48 minutes to win. Both teams have 100 possessions
        to win in a fast game or 85 in a slow game or whatever. But both
        opponents have the same number (not true with small possessions
        = "plays"). So, yes, what matters is what happens per minute, but it
        is equivalent to say that what matters is what happens per
        possession. And what happens per possession isolates quality better
        than what happens per minute.

        DeanO
      Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.