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RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Seattle Resurgence?

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  • Michael Tamada
    Oops, this is the post I was thinking of, with the Sonics pre- and post-trade records, that Schtevie2003 had asked for. ... From: Kevin Pelton
    Message 1 of 34 , Apr 8, 2003
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      Oops, this is the post I was thinking of, with the Sonics' pre- and post-trade records, that Schtevie2003 had asked for.


      -----Original Message-----
      From: Kevin Pelton [mailto:kpelton08@...]
      Sent: Monday, April 07, 2003 11:28 PM

      [...]

      http://www.sonicscentral.com/pre.jpg
      http://www.sonicscentral.com/post.jpg

      All numbers, like most things in life, highly unofficial.

      *** Now I see the Sonics' post-trade advantage: they've played 5,812 minutes while
      their opponents have only played 5,810! Undoubtedly scoring some easy baskets during
      those extra 2 minutes, 5-on-0. ;)



      The numbers below average points scored/allowed are points per 100
      possession. FYI I use the 'small possession' model (I think that's
      what we termed it), where a missed shot ends a possession even if the
      team gets an offensive rebound. I prefer this method because it
      isolates rebounding from the measurement, and I find rebounding to be
      its own separate category from offense and defense. *shurg*

      *** Depends on the application but for applications like this I agree, break things down into
      their detailed parts.


      --MKT
    • aaronkoo
      ... This is actually misleading. I won t say wrong, but misleading. Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive and without adjustment
      Message 34 of 34 , Apr 11, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
        > What matters is that x points and y rebounds occurred in z minutes.

        This is actually misleading. I won't say wrong, but misleading.
        Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive
        and without adjustment for pace overweight players who just put up a
        lot of offensive stats _per minute_. And pace is mostly (not
        entirely) a function of a decision about pace, not ability (though
        ability has a small impact). How fast or slow teams play reflects
        primarily on their style not their substance. How many points and
        rebounds per minute reflects both style and substance. Removing pace
        more isolates the substance.

        The way common possessions do it is by isolating another variable in
        addition to minutes that is common between both teams on the floor.
        Both teams have 48 minutes to win. Both teams have 100 possessions
        to win in a fast game or 85 in a slow game or whatever. But both
        opponents have the same number (not true with small possessions
        = "plays"). So, yes, what matters is what happens per minute, but it
        is equivalent to say that what matters is what happens per
        possession. And what happens per possession isolates quality better
        than what happens per minute.

        DeanO
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