RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Seattle Resurgence?
- Oops, this is the post I was thinking of, with the Sonics' pre- and post-trade records, that Schtevie2003 had asked for.
From: Kevin Pelton [mailto:kpelton08@...]
Sent: Monday, April 07, 2003 11:28 PM
All numbers, like most things in life, highly unofficial.
*** Now I see the Sonics' post-trade advantage: they've played 5,812 minutes while
their opponents have only played 5,810! Undoubtedly scoring some easy baskets during
those extra 2 minutes, 5-on-0. ;)
The numbers below average points scored/allowed are points per 100
possession. FYI I use the 'small possession' model (I think that's
what we termed it), where a missed shot ends a possession even if the
team gets an offensive rebound. I prefer this method because it
isolates rebounding from the measurement, and I find rebounding to be
its own separate category from offense and defense. *shurg*
*** Depends on the application but for applications like this I agree, break things down into
their detailed parts.
- --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
> What matters is that x points and y rebounds occurred in z minutes.This is actually misleading. I won't say wrong, but misleading.
Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive
and without adjustment for pace overweight players who just put up a
lot of offensive stats _per minute_. And pace is mostly (not
entirely) a function of a decision about pace, not ability (though
ability has a small impact). How fast or slow teams play reflects
primarily on their style not their substance. How many points and
rebounds per minute reflects both style and substance. Removing pace
more isolates the substance.
The way common possessions do it is by isolating another variable in
addition to minutes that is common between both teams on the floor.
Both teams have 48 minutes to win. Both teams have 100 possessions
to win in a fast game or 85 in a slow game or whatever. But both
opponents have the same number (not true with small possessions
= "plays"). So, yes, what matters is what happens per minute, but it
is equivalent to say that what matters is what happens per
possession. And what happens per possession isolates quality better
than what happens per minute.