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Re: Seattle Resurgence?

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  • aaronkoo
    ... unforeseen ... Sonics ... come ... softness ... Sheesh, life is frickin busy right now. Chemistry -- I guess you could say it is chemistry. But there is
    Message 1 of 34 , Apr 7, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
      wrote:
      > that the Sonics' defense should improve next season, barring
      unforeseen
      > happenstances? On the one hand, it's easy enough to believe, the
      Sonics'
      > defense has been soft for awhile so improvement is easy enough to
      come
      > buy. But on the other hand, it would seem that most of that
      softness
      > came from the C and PF positions, so if the Sonics do improve on D
      > it would come from improved defensive play there, rather than from
      > improved D from the guards.
      >
      > I suppose that what you might be saying is that improved D from the
      > power positions would most likely come via a Payton-Allen trade ...
      > this is not outlandish, in fact I might buy it, but it's hard to
      > see the connection, except for the chemistry thing.

      Sheesh, life is frickin' busy right now.

      Chemistry -- I guess you could say it is chemistry. But there is
      more. The Sonics have been horrible at perimeter defense. A lot of
      that is the style they play trying to protect interior defenders.
      Gary was never as good at help defense -- covering on the perimeter
      out of a rotation -- as he was on straight cover D and most numbers
      suggest that he'd lost a bit on that over the last several years. So
      maybe Allen is a better perimeter help defender in the D the Sonics
      play. That might be chemistry. My indicators weren't as clear as
      this, but more pointed at the team results being worse than the sum
      of the parts on D.

      I haven't done the study yet but I would like to look at really what
      type of player has hurt the Sonics the most this year.

      Back to busy life.

      DeanO
    • aaronkoo
      ... This is actually misleading. I won t say wrong, but misleading. Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive and without adjustment
      Message 34 of 34 , Apr 11, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
        > What matters is that x points and y rebounds occurred in z minutes.

        This is actually misleading. I won't say wrong, but misleading.
        Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive
        and without adjustment for pace overweight players who just put up a
        lot of offensive stats _per minute_. And pace is mostly (not
        entirely) a function of a decision about pace, not ability (though
        ability has a small impact). How fast or slow teams play reflects
        primarily on their style not their substance. How many points and
        rebounds per minute reflects both style and substance. Removing pace
        more isolates the substance.

        The way common possessions do it is by isolating another variable in
        addition to minutes that is common between both teams on the floor.
        Both teams have 48 minutes to win. Both teams have 100 possessions
        to win in a fast game or 85 in a slow game or whatever. But both
        opponents have the same number (not true with small possessions
        = "plays"). So, yes, what matters is what happens per minute, but it
        is equivalent to say that what matters is what happens per
        possession. And what happens per possession isolates quality better
        than what happens per minute.

        DeanO
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