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RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Seattle Resurgence?

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  • Michael Tamada
    ... From: monepeterson [mailto:mone@sigma.net] Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 2003 10:05 AM Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Seattle Resurgence? ... Yes, prior to the
    Message 1 of 34 , Apr 2, 2003
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      -----Original Message-----
      From: monepeterson [mailto:mone@...]
      Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 2003 10:05 AM
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Seattle Resurgence?


      >> 2. When the trade happened, I saw it as a boost for the offense
      >>with a potential for making the team a 50+ win playoff caliber
      >>version fairly soon. Ray Allen is that much better than Gary Payton

      >Dean, if you can do so without compromising your position with the
      >Sonics, can you comment more at length on #2? I understand Ray being
      >more efficient than Payton, but how does this help the other players?

      Yes, prior to the trade the Sonics were on course for what, maybe 38
      wins? Obviously the 50+ win prediction requires more than just the
      Allen trade, and given that it is a prediction for the future, when
      Payton will decline due to age while Allen is still at his peak, time
      is on Allen's side too. But still that seems like a lot of additional
      wins for an Allen-Payton swap, even given the other ingredients and time
      factor.

      [...]

      >I'm just remembering earlier in the season when McMillan said
      >something about James being self-centered, and Jerome's response was
      >"I don't know what he's talking about. I just take care of Jerome."
      >Had to be the quote of the year.

      Yes, the LA Times featured it in their quote of the day column/box,
      but I think the quote should've gotten even more notice than it did,
      because I agree it has to be one of the quotes of the year. Maybe
      the kind of thing that Terry Pluto could use if he ever writes
      "Tall Tales II" or whatever.

      BTW, I recently finished reading Pluto's "Falling from Grace" a critique
      of the NBA written in the late 1990s. Prescient in many ways, about the
      decline of interest in the NBA post-Jordan. Granted that's not exactly
      Karnak the Magnificent prescience, and there was much that I didn't agree
      with in the book or that was poorly analyzed, but Pluto made some good
      points too. Plus he had a good quote from Frank Layden about how
      Adrian Dantley became such a pill on the Jazz that they traded him away,
      jsut to get him off the team. ;)


      --MKT
    • aaronkoo
      ... This is actually misleading. I won t say wrong, but misleading. Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive and without adjustment
      Message 34 of 34 , Apr 11, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
        > What matters is that x points and y rebounds occurred in z minutes.

        This is actually misleading. I won't say wrong, but misleading.
        Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive
        and without adjustment for pace overweight players who just put up a
        lot of offensive stats _per minute_. And pace is mostly (not
        entirely) a function of a decision about pace, not ability (though
        ability has a small impact). How fast or slow teams play reflects
        primarily on their style not their substance. How many points and
        rebounds per minute reflects both style and substance. Removing pace
        more isolates the substance.

        The way common possessions do it is by isolating another variable in
        addition to minutes that is common between both teams on the floor.
        Both teams have 48 minutes to win. Both teams have 100 possessions
        to win in a fast game or 85 in a slow game or whatever. But both
        opponents have the same number (not true with small possessions
        = "plays"). So, yes, what matters is what happens per minute, but it
        is equivalent to say that what matters is what happens per
        possession. And what happens per possession isolates quality better
        than what happens per minute.

        DeanO
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