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Re: Seattle Resurgence?

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  • aaronkoo
    ... is ... A few comments. 1. Seattle is a better team with the trade. There were a lot of things I saw in the numbers before the trade suggesting that a
    Message 1 of 34 , Apr 2 1:14 AM
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "monepeterson" <mone@s...>
      wrote:
      > Something I'm not hearing about a lot in the national media is
      > Seattle's resurgence. They were left for dead at the time of the
      > Payton-Allen trade, but since Allen has been in the lineup the team
      is
      > 12-7 and now only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot.
      >
      >
      >
      >
      > I know it's a small sample size, but what's changed? What are they
      > doing better now?

      A few comments.

      1. Seattle is a better team with the trade. There were a lot of
      things I saw in the numbers before the trade suggesting that a change
      had to be made. The development of the young guys was just not
      happening before.

      2. When the trade happened, I saw it as a boost for the offense with
      a potential for making the team a 50+ win playoff caliber version
      fairly soon. Ray Allen is that much better than Gary Payton at this
      point. They key goes beyond Ray, though, to other guys like Rashard
      Lewis, Radmanovic, and James.

      3. There was an initial defensive spike in the team after the trade,
      with the team also dominating the defensive side of the ball. That
      had the team thinking playoffs right away, but it had to end. The
      team should not have gotten significantly better on that end and,
      sure enough, it has more evened out over the longer haul. There is
      improvement that can be made on the defensive side in the offseason...

      4. Jerome James could be a big part of that or not a part of it. He
      is definitely erratic. In his short minutes on the court, he can
      make a HUGE difference in the game, either on the positive side or
      the negative. I have a lot of work to do in studying his potential
      for contribution.

      5. Someone mentioned statistical significance. Yes, the team has
      not statistically significantly improved itself when looking only at
      the team record. But there are a lot of ways to break down the team
      and test for significance. Understanding when "significance"
      is "significant" is part of the science. I just need to run a bunch
      of tests. That's a task for the offseason -- may it come later
      rather than sooner.

      Sorry for the less-than-specific response, but I can't say too much
      about what I have done for the Sonics without putting myself in an
      awkward position...

      DeanO
    • aaronkoo
      ... This is actually misleading. I won t say wrong, but misleading. Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive and without adjustment
      Message 34 of 34 , Apr 11 8:50 AM
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
        > What matters is that x points and y rebounds occurred in z minutes.

        This is actually misleading. I won't say wrong, but misleading.
        Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive
        and without adjustment for pace overweight players who just put up a
        lot of offensive stats _per minute_. And pace is mostly (not
        entirely) a function of a decision about pace, not ability (though
        ability has a small impact). How fast or slow teams play reflects
        primarily on their style not their substance. How many points and
        rebounds per minute reflects both style and substance. Removing pace
        more isolates the substance.

        The way common possessions do it is by isolating another variable in
        addition to minutes that is common between both teams on the floor.
        Both teams have 48 minutes to win. Both teams have 100 possessions
        to win in a fast game or 85 in a slow game or whatever. But both
        opponents have the same number (not true with small possessions
        = "plays"). So, yes, what matters is what happens per minute, but it
        is equivalent to say that what matters is what happens per
        possession. And what happens per possession isolates quality better
        than what happens per minute.

        DeanO
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