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Re: Seattle Resurgence?

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  • Kevin Pelton
    ... It s just further evidence, in my opinion, that the defensive reps for both players are misstated. While I ve never heard a scout say it, people like JohnH
    Message 1 of 34 , Apr 1, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
      wrote:
      > But your stats suggest that the Sonics' defense is the same as
      > before, which isn't great but at least it didn't get worse when
      > Payton left. Whereas their defensive reputations suggest that that
      > is where the Sonics would've been hurt by GP's departure.

      It's just further evidence, in my opinion, that the defensive reps
      for both players are misstated. While I've never heard a scout say
      it, people like JohnH and DeanO have questioned Payton's rep for a
      long time and I've agreed (though I did disagree with Dean about him
      being at the same level of Barry).

      Allen is obviously not anywhere close to being the worst defender in
      the league, as Karl once called him in Milwaukee. He's not a plus as
      a defender, but he's not really going to hurt you either.

      A few things keep the Payton-Allen comparison from really being fair:

      1. Kevin Ollie is probably the best defender against quick point
      guards the Sonics have had all season.

      2. Brent Barry is still affected by tendinitis, but healthier than he
      had been, which has improved his play at both ends of the court.
      (Offensively, I see him as being right back at his stellar 01-02
      level since the trade.)

      3. Most importantly, Jerome James has been playing more minutes (at
      least I think so) since the trade, at the expense of Predrag
      Drobnjak, who is an awful defender. James makes a lot of mistakes,
      but he's also done a fine job of cleaning up messes created out on
      the perimeter.

      If anybody's interested, I have full individual/team stats pre- and
      post-trade I could post over the weekend. Of course, if they lose
      this game to Chicago because of McMillan's refusal to use James or
      Evans down the stretch and go down against Minnesota, nobody will
      really care, right?
    • aaronkoo
      ... This is actually misleading. I won t say wrong, but misleading. Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive and without adjustment
      Message 34 of 34 , Apr 11, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
        > What matters is that x points and y rebounds occurred in z minutes.

        This is actually misleading. I won't say wrong, but misleading.
        Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive
        and without adjustment for pace overweight players who just put up a
        lot of offensive stats _per minute_. And pace is mostly (not
        entirely) a function of a decision about pace, not ability (though
        ability has a small impact). How fast or slow teams play reflects
        primarily on their style not their substance. How many points and
        rebounds per minute reflects both style and substance. Removing pace
        more isolates the substance.

        The way common possessions do it is by isolating another variable in
        addition to minutes that is common between both teams on the floor.
        Both teams have 48 minutes to win. Both teams have 100 possessions
        to win in a fast game or 85 in a slow game or whatever. But both
        opponents have the same number (not true with small possessions
        = "plays"). So, yes, what matters is what happens per minute, but it
        is equivalent to say that what matters is what happens per
        possession. And what happens per possession isolates quality better
        than what happens per minute.

        DeanO
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