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RE: [APBR_analysis] Seattle Resurgence?

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  • Michael Tamada
    ... From: igorkupfer@rogers.com [mailto:igorkupfer@rogers.com] Sent: Tuesday, April 01, 2003 1:18 PM To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re:
    Message 1 of 34 , Apr 1, 2003
      -----Original Message-----
      From: igorkupfer@... [mailto:igorkupfer@...]
      Sent: Tuesday, April 01, 2003 1:18 PM
      To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Seattle Resurgence?

      [...]

      >I looked at this on the Sonics newsfroup last week. Here's what I got:
      >
      > W-L FGM-A 3m-a OR TR As TO St Bl Pts OppPts Diff pts/ps defpts/ps
      >
      >pre 22-30 36-82 4-13 12 41 22 12 9 4 91.3 93.3 -2.0 1.01 1.03
      >post 11-7 34-77 7-20 11 39 21 13 7 3 93.2 89.8 3.4 1.06 1.02

      [...]

      >wanted to make sure that the differences were statistically significant. Using the
      >Student's t test, I compared the two samples, and found that most of the differences
      >were not significant. Here are the ones that were, along with the p value:
      >
      >FGA p < 0.01
      >3m p < 0.01
      >3a p < 0.01
      >Diff p < 0.10
      >OffRtg p < 0.10
      >Poss p < 0.05

      In addition, their change in win percent is not statistically significant, according
      to the chi-squared test I ran: p = .17.

      >It appears that the Sonics have slowed their game down, and incrased their offensive
      >efficiency dramatically.

      Yes, thanks for the stats. What's somewhat interesting is that, aside from the obvious difference that Payton is a PG and Allen a SG, one of the big differences between the players was that Payton is a very good defender while Allen is allegedly not real interested in defense. Both are gunning, shot-happy players on offense, but defensively there is allegedly a big difference.

      But your stats suggest that the Sonics' defense is the same as before, which isn't great but at least it didn't get worse when Payton left. Whereas their defensive reputations suggest that that is where the Sonics would've been hurt by GP's departure.

      Of course, for a more accurate analysis we'd also have to take into account the quality of the Sonics' opponents, home vs away, etc. etc. But I doubt any of us are inclined to do that at the moment.



      --MKT
    • aaronkoo
      ... This is actually misleading. I won t say wrong, but misleading. Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive and without adjustment
      Message 34 of 34 , Apr 11, 2003
        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
        > What matters is that x points and y rebounds occurred in z minutes.

        This is actually misleading. I won't say wrong, but misleading.
        Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive
        and without adjustment for pace overweight players who just put up a
        lot of offensive stats _per minute_. And pace is mostly (not
        entirely) a function of a decision about pace, not ability (though
        ability has a small impact). How fast or slow teams play reflects
        primarily on their style not their substance. How many points and
        rebounds per minute reflects both style and substance. Removing pace
        more isolates the substance.

        The way common possessions do it is by isolating another variable in
        addition to minutes that is common between both teams on the floor.
        Both teams have 48 minutes to win. Both teams have 100 possessions
        to win in a fast game or 85 in a slow game or whatever. But both
        opponents have the same number (not true with small possessions
        = "plays"). So, yes, what matters is what happens per minute, but it
        is equivalent to say that what matters is what happens per
        possession. And what happens per possession isolates quality better
        than what happens per minute.

        DeanO
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