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Re: [APBR_analysis] Seattle Resurgence?

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  • igorkupfer@rogers.com
    ... I looked at this on the Sonics newsfroup last week. Here s what I got: W-L FGM-A 3m-a OR TR As TO St Bl Pts OppPts Diff pts/ps defpts/ps pre 22-30
    Message 1 of 34 , Apr 1, 2003
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      >
      > ----- Original Message -----
      > From: "monepeterson" <mone@...>
      > To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      > Sent: Tuesday, April 01, 2003 4:07 PM
      > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Seattle Resurgence?
      >
      >
      > Something I'm not hearing about a lot in the national media is
      > Seattle's resurgence. They were left for dead at the time of the
      > Payton-Allen trade, but since Allen has been in the lineup the team is
      > 12-7 and now only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot.
      >
      >
      > I know it's a small sample size, but what's changed? What are they
      > doing better now?


      I looked at this on the Sonics newsfroup last week. Here's what I got:

      W-L FGM-A 3m-a OR TR As TO St Bl Pts OppPts Diff pts/ps defpts/ps

      pre 22-30 36-82 4-13 12 41 22 12 9 4 91.3 93.3 -2.0 1.01 1.03
      post 11-7 34-77 7-20 11 39 21 13 7 3 93.2 89.8 3.4 1.06 1.02

      where OppPts is points allowed, and pts/ps is points scored per possession, defpts/ps
      is points allowed per possession.

      You can see that some of the differences are minimal, and some are dramatic --
      particularly points/possession. But we are dealing with a small sample of games, so I
      wanted to make sure that the differences were statistically significant. Using the
      Student's t test, I compared the two samples, and found that most of the differences
      were not significant. Here are the ones that were, along with the p value:

      FGA p < 0.01
      3m p < 0.01
      3a p < 0.01
      Diff p < 0.10
      OffRtg p < 0.10
      Poss p < 0.05

      Diff refers to point differential, usually a very good predictor of total team wins.
      Poss is average possessions per game, which dropped from 90.5 in the Payton era to 87.5
      in the Ollie era.

      It appears that the Sonics have slowed their game down, and incrased their offensive
      efficiency dramatically.


      ed
    • aaronkoo
      ... This is actually misleading. I won t say wrong, but misleading. Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive and without adjustment
      Message 34 of 34 , Apr 11, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
        > What matters is that x points and y rebounds occurred in z minutes.

        This is actually misleading. I won't say wrong, but misleading.
        Pace is very important. Many of the individual stats are offensive
        and without adjustment for pace overweight players who just put up a
        lot of offensive stats _per minute_. And pace is mostly (not
        entirely) a function of a decision about pace, not ability (though
        ability has a small impact). How fast or slow teams play reflects
        primarily on their style not their substance. How many points and
        rebounds per minute reflects both style and substance. Removing pace
        more isolates the substance.

        The way common possessions do it is by isolating another variable in
        addition to minutes that is common between both teams on the floor.
        Both teams have 48 minutes to win. Both teams have 100 possessions
        to win in a fast game or 85 in a slow game or whatever. But both
        opponents have the same number (not true with small possessions
        = "plays"). So, yes, what matters is what happens per minute, but it
        is equivalent to say that what matters is what happens per
        possession. And what happens per possession isolates quality better
        than what happens per minute.

        DeanO
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