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Re: Poll results for APBR_analysis

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  • Mike G
    ... for that ... of them Yeah, I was playing the odds. The odds of any one team in the West are diminished by competition within the conference. So even
    Message 1 of 23 , Mar 7, 2003
      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gary Collard <collardg@e...>
      wrote:
      > Very interesting that somebody picked Detroit, or any Least team
      for that
      > matter as there are at least 6 West teams that look better than any
      of them

      Yeah, I was playing the odds.

      The odds of any one team in the West are diminished by competition
      within the conference. So even reaching the Finals seems a 25%
      chance at best, from the west.

      In the East, my Pacers were looking soft. The big guys haven't
      proven themselves in postseason, Reggie can't carry them all forever,
      and Artest is, well...

      Pistons looked like they may have the best chance of Reaching the
      Finals; and maybe the West representative will be exhausted, injured,
      etc.

      When I was a kid, there was a contest to predict the score of some
      big basketball game. Our high school was a big favorite, but my
      older brother picked the other team. We lost, and he won, not
      because the score was terribly close, but because he was the Only kid
      who picked us to lose. (Didn't make him especially popular).

      What amazes me here and now is how this group has stampeded into the
      Kings camp. Not one vote for the Mavs.
    • bchaikin@aol.com
      if no one else is going to take dallas......i will......with shawn bradley being finals mvp with a record 7 blocks per game.... (while i m dreaming a corvette
      Message 2 of 23 , Apr 20 11:08 AM

        if no one else is going to take dallas......i will......with shawn bradley being finals mvp with a record 7 blocks per game....

        (while i'm dreaming a corvette would be nice too).....

        bob chaikin
        bchaikin@...
      • Gary Collard
        ... The one I checked late last week had SA and Sac at 2/1, the Lakers at 2.25/1, and Dallas at 4.5/1. ... Dallas 2-8 record against those three teams?
        Message 3 of 23 , Apr 21 8:38 PM
          aaronkoo wrote:
          >
          > Well, these are the results that I was curious to get. People favor
          > a team with a lower record -- the Kings. The team with the co-best
          > record, Dallas, doesn't get respect. Does anyone know what the Vegas
          > line was at the start of the playoffs?

          The one I checked late last week had SA and Sac at 2/1, the Lakers at
          2.25/1, and Dallas at 4.5/1.

          > What are people seeing?

          Dallas' 2-8 record against those three teams? (games without Shaq and
          Duncan ignored).

          To be honest, I wonder why Dallas was so low at 4.5/1, I think that the 3
          elite teams make up *at least* 95% of the probability.

          Has a poor defense, horrible rebounding, jump shooting team ever won the
          title? I can't think of one, but I could be forgetting somebody.

          One more thought on the Mavs - earlier in the year we discussed the wisdom
          of the Mavs expending so much energy in the regular season, particularly
          early. Not sure how much play it got nationwide, but the Mavs complained
          after every game of being a very tired team from the end of March forward.
          So I think we got our answer to that question.

          --
          Gary Collard
          SABR-L Moderator
          collardg@...
        • Michael Tamada
          ... From: Gary Collard [mailto:collardg@earthlink.net] Sent: Monday, April 21, 2003 8:39 PM ... [...] ... Yeah they ARE getting 95% of the probability and
          Message 4 of 23 , Apr 21 10:40 PM
            -----Original Message-----
            From: Gary Collard [mailto:collardg@...]
            Sent: Monday, April 21, 2003 8:39 PM

            >aaronkoo wrote:
            >>
            >> Well, these are the results that I was curious to get. People favor
            >> a team with a lower record -- the Kings. The team with the co-best
            >> record, Dallas, doesn't get respect. Does anyone know what the Vegas
            >> line was at the start of the playoffs?
            >
            >The one I checked late last week had SA and Sac at 2/1, the Lakers at
            >2.25/1, and Dallas at 4.5/1.

            [...]

            >To be honest, I wonder why Dallas was so low at 4.5/1, I think that the 3
            >elite teams make up *at least* 95% of the probability.

            Yeah they ARE getting 95% of the probability and more, too much more.
            Let's convert those odds into probabilities:

            SA: .333
            Sac .333
            LAL .308
            Dal .182
            ----
            Sum 1.156


            Those oddsmakers have set mathematically impossible odds. Of course with
            betting there has to be some sort of "vig" or margin for the oddsmakers to
            make money off of, but even if the next 4 playoff contenders are 19-1
            longshots, the sum of the resulting probabilities is creating a pretty fat
            margin in excess of 1.0.


            >Has a poor defense, horrible rebounding, jump shooting team ever won the
            >title? I can't think of one, but I could be forgetting somebody.

            People have listed a number of reasons why Dallas is so unfavored, but I
            think this is by far the most important reason. Forget the won-loss or
            head-to-head records; what does a championship team look like? Pretty
            much like a team which has the opposite characteristics of the Mavericks,
            while still having about the same won-loss record.

            That's why the Spurs get my vote too. The Lakers are not hitting on all
            cylinders yet (and beating up on the TWolves doesn't count), though I
            grant that they're probably about tied for 2nd best chance at the
            championship. The Kings are not as extreme as the Mavs but share their
            high-scoring ways (remember that great playoff series last year between
            the Kings and Mavs? Most entertaining playoff series in a long while,
            too bad we knew that the high-flying winner would likely be brought down
            to earth by a playoff opponent playing the currently dominant slowdown
            NBA style.) The Spurs in contrast to the Kings and Mavs have the shape
            of a late 20th/early 21st century NBA champion: dominant MVP caliber
            player inside (or alternatively have Michael Jordan on your team), defensive
            capabilities, and enough offensive firepower in the supporting cast.


            --MKT
          • aaronkoo
            ... favor ... best ... Vegas ... at ... Not following odds very much, shouldn t they when converted to percentages, add up to something less than or equal to
            Message 5 of 23 , Apr 21 10:41 PM
              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gary Collard <collardg@e...>
              wrote:
              > aaronkoo wrote:
              > >
              > > Well, these are the results that I was curious to get. People
              favor
              > > a team with a lower record -- the Kings. The team with the co-
              best
              > > record, Dallas, doesn't get respect. Does anyone know what the
              Vegas
              > > line was at the start of the playoffs?
              >
              > The one I checked late last week had SA and Sac at 2/1, the Lakers
              at
              > 2.25/1, and Dallas at 4.5/1.
              >

              Not following odds very much, shouldn't they when converted to
              percentages, add up to something less than or equal to 1? These sum
              up to 1.16. Is that because these are a guess (from memory)?

              DeanO
            • Michael Tamada
              ... From: Michael Tamada Sent: Monday, April 21, 2003 10:40 PM [...] ... [...] ... I should add that I would be happy to have these predictions proven wrong:
              Message 6 of 23 , Apr 21 10:47 PM
                -----Original Message-----
                From: Michael Tamada
                Sent: Monday, April 21, 2003 10:40 PM

                [...]

                >head-to-head records; what does a championship team look like? Pretty
                >much like a team which has the opposite characteristics of the Mavericks,
                >while still having about the same won-loss record.

                [...]

                >high-scoring ways (remember that great playoff series last year between
                >the Kings and Mavs? Most entertaining playoff series in a long while,
                >too bad we knew that the high-flying winner would likely be brought down
                >to earth by a playoff opponent playing the currently dominant slowdown


                I should add that I would be happy to have these predictions proven wrong:
                to have a speed-it-up, run-and-gun team to win the NBA championship would
                be a refreshing change of pace and would encourage the use of faster more
                entertaining playing styles in the NBA. It would also be good to see a
                team which uses depth instead of 1 or 2 MVP caliber players to win a
                championship, which hasn't happened since the late 1980s Pistons and
                late 1970s Sonics. Not that I really like the Mavs all that much, but
                still they represent a change of pace.

                But as we discussed several months ago when we discussed the "1-2 MVP"
                strategy vs "deep roster" strategy: there's been a clear pattern in terms
                of what types of teams win the NBA championship, and the Spurs and Lakers
                have that pattern, the Kings only do to a small extent, and the Mavs do not.


                --MKT
              • Richard Scott
                ... Nope, because they you have bankrupt bookmakers.
                Message 7 of 23 , Apr 21 10:55 PM
                  > Not following odds very much, shouldn't they when converted to
                  > percentages, add up to something less than or equal to 1? These sum
                  > up to 1.16. Is that because these are a guess (from memory)?
                  >
                  > DeanO
                  >


                  Nope, because they you have bankrupt bookmakers.
                • Gary Collard
                  ... The Dallas could be wrong, the others are right (can t find them archived in a quick look), but what you are seeing here is that there is a lot of
                  Message 8 of 23 , Apr 22 9:34 PM
                    aaronkoo wrote:
                    >
                    > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gary Collard <collardg@e...>
                    > wrote:
                    > > aaronkoo wrote:
                    > > >
                    > > > Well, these are the results that I was curious to get. People
                    > favor
                    > > > a team with a lower record -- the Kings. The team with the co-
                    > best
                    > > > record, Dallas, doesn't get respect. Does anyone know what the
                    > Vegas
                    > > > line was at the start of the playoffs?
                    > >
                    > > The one I checked late last week had SA and Sac at 2/1, the Lakers
                    > at
                    > > 2.25/1, and Dallas at 4.5/1.
                    > >
                    >
                    > Not following odds very much, shouldn't they when converted to
                    > percentages, add up to something less than or equal to 1? These sum
                    > up to 1.16. Is that because these are a guess (from memory)?

                    The Dallas could be wrong, the others are right (can't find them archived
                    in a quick look), but what you are seeing here is that there is a lot of
                    vig/juice on these kinds of bets.

                    --
                    Gary Collard
                    SABR-L Moderator
                    collardg@...
                  • Richard Scott
                    pretty standard for futures/horse racing type bets, to have 1.5% or so per runner, again, otherwise, no money to bet made...
                    Message 9 of 23 , Apr 22 9:52 PM
                      pretty standard for futures/horse racing type bets, to have 1.5% or so per
                      runner, again, otherwise, no money to bet made...
                      >
                      > The Dallas could be wrong, the others are right (can't find them archived
                      > in a quick look), but what you are seeing here is that there is a lot of
                      > vig/juice on these kinds of bets.
                      >
                      > --
                    • aaronkoo
                      ... so per ... I never really thought about this stuff. How do they make their money on point spread bets? (Is there any bias in point spreads that we as
                      Message 10 of 23 , Apr 23 8:40 AM
                        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Richard Scott" <rnmscott@b...>
                        wrote:
                        > pretty standard for futures/horse racing type bets, to have 1.5% or
                        so per
                        > runner, again, otherwise, no money to bet made...
                        > >

                        I never really thought about this stuff. How do they make their
                        money on point spread bets? (Is there any bias in point spreads that
                        we as researchers need to account for?)

                        The line on the first LA-Min game was LA favored by 1. I didn't see
                        it on the 2nd game. I'd think that if these point spreads aren't
                        biased, we could get at what Vegas really thinks the odds are.

                        DeanO
                      • schtevie2003
                        ... ... 1.5% or ... spreads that ... see ... As I understand it, point spread bets - like all lines - are all biased in the sense that they do
                        Message 11 of 23 , Apr 23 11:36 AM
                          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "aaronkoo"
                          <deano@r...> wrote:
                          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Richard Scott"
                          <rnmscott@b...>
                          > wrote:
                          > > pretty standard for futures/horse racing type bets, to have
                          1.5% or
                          > so per
                          > > runner, again, otherwise, no money to bet made...
                          > > >
                          >
                          > I never really thought about this stuff. How do they make their
                          > money on point spread bets? (Is there any bias in point
                          spreads that
                          > we as researchers need to account for?)
                          >
                          > The line on the first LA-Min game was LA favored by 1. I didn't
                          see
                          > it on the 2nd game. I'd think that if these point spreads aren't
                          > biased, we could get at what Vegas really thinks the odds are.
                          >
                          > DeanO

                          As I understand it, point spread bets - like all lines - are all
                          biased in the sense that they do not purport to represent
                          expected outcomes. They are instead designed to ensure that
                          there is equal action on both sides, thereby minimizing the
                          bookmakers risk. Thus, they are unbiased only to the degree
                          that the able and willing bettors' perceptions are unbiased.
                        • Medea's Child
                          ... I m hardly an expert gambler, but I believe this is correct: the ideal situation for a bookmaker (at least, from a risk perspective) is a heavy volume of
                          Message 12 of 23 , Apr 23 11:56 AM
                            --- schtevie2003 <schtevie@...> wrote:
                            > As I understand it, point spread bets - like all
                            > lines - are all
                            > biased in the sense that they do not purport to
                            > represent
                            > expected outcomes. They are instead designed to
                            > ensure that
                            > there is equal action on both sides, thereby
                            > minimizing the
                            > bookmakers risk. Thus, they are unbiased only to
                            > the degree
                            > that the able and willing bettors' perceptions are
                            > unbiased.
                            >
                            >
                            I'm hardly an expert gambler, but I believe this is
                            correct: the ideal situation for a bookmaker (at
                            least, from a risk perspective) is a heavy volume of
                            betting equal on both sides, with the bookmaker
                            assured of a profit from the "vig". If a specific
                            team is popular, it could conceivably give an extra
                            point or two in order to encourage betting on the
                            other side.

                            Medea's Child
                            >


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                          • aaronkoo
                            ... So then, the line reflects the betting public at large s opinion of who will win, assuming that they are only trying to maximize profit (and that bets
                            Message 13 of 23 , Apr 23 12:52 PM
                              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Medea's Child
                              <medeas_child@y...> wrote:
                              > --- schtevie2003 <schtevie@h...> wrote:
                              > > As I understand it, point spread bets - like all
                              > > lines - are all
                              > > biased in the sense that they do not purport to
                              > > represent
                              > > expected outcomes. They are instead designed to
                              > > ensure that
                              > > there is equal action on both sides, thereby
                              > > minimizing the
                              > > bookmakers risk. Thus, they are unbiased only to
                              > > the degree
                              > > that the able and willing bettors' perceptions are
                              > > unbiased.
                              > >
                              > >
                              > I'm hardly an expert gambler, but I believe this is
                              > correct: the ideal situation for a bookmaker (at
                              > least, from a risk perspective) is a heavy volume of
                              > betting equal on both sides, with the bookmaker
                              > assured of a profit from the "vig". If a specific
                              > team is popular, it could conceivably give an extra
                              > point or two in order to encourage betting on the
                              > other side.

                              So then, the line reflects the betting public at large's opinion of
                              who will win, assuming that they are only trying to maximize profit
                              (and that bets based on pure emotion are rare enough to be ignored).
                              Right? The opening line may reflect a more expert opinion?

                              What's a "vig"?
                            • Medea's Child
                              I *believe* that the below is more or less correct (but, unfortunately, I can t provide a cite). However much the opening line looks like a prediction (Lakers
                              Message 14 of 23 , Apr 23 1:07 PM
                                I *believe* that the below is more or less correct
                                (but, unfortunately, I can't provide a cite).

                                However much the opening line looks like a prediction
                                (Lakers by "x", Kings by "y", etc), as I understand
                                it, it's really designed to keep betting roughly equal
                                on both sides. That keeps profits up and risks down.
                                (I suppose that a bookmaker stands to make more if
                                more money is bet on the losing side, however, he's
                                then at risk if more money is bet on one side, and
                                that side WINS. If the money is equally balanced on
                                both sides, it's a guaranteed profit for the
                                bookmaker.

                                "Vig" is short for Vigorish, the fee/commission paid
                                to the bookmaker. This, I *can* provide a cite for:

                                http://www.professionalgambler.com/vigorish.html

                                To repeat, I'm not a sports bettor, just someone who
                                did a little bit of reading, once, how sports betting
                                works.

                                Medea's Child


                                --- aaronkoo <deano@...> wrote:
                                > So then, the line reflects the betting public at
                                > large's opinion of
                                > who will win, assuming that they are only trying to
                                > maximize profit
                                > (and that bets based on pure emotion are rare enough
                                > to be ignored).
                                > Right? The opening line may reflect a more expert
                                > opinion?
                                >
                                > What's a "vig"?
                                >
                                >


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                              • schtevie2003
                                ... More precisely, the opening line reflects the bookmaker s perception of what the betting public s expenditure-weighted average opinion is, and this opinion
                                Message 15 of 23 , Apr 23 1:09 PM
                                  --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "aaronkoo" <deano@r...> wrote:
                                  > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Medea's Child
                                  > <medeas_child@y...> wrote:
                                  > > --- schtevie2003 <schtevie@h...> wrote:
                                  > > > As I understand it, point spread bets - like all
                                  > > > lines - are all
                                  > > > biased in the sense that they do not purport to
                                  > > > represent
                                  > > > expected outcomes. They are instead designed to
                                  > > > ensure that
                                  > > > there is equal action on both sides, thereby
                                  > > > minimizing the
                                  > > > bookmakers risk. Thus, they are unbiased only to
                                  > > > the degree
                                  > > > that the able and willing bettors' perceptions are
                                  > > > unbiased.
                                  > > >
                                  > > >
                                  > > I'm hardly an expert gambler, but I believe this is
                                  > > correct: the ideal situation for a bookmaker (at
                                  > > least, from a risk perspective) is a heavy volume of
                                  > > betting equal on both sides, with the bookmaker
                                  > > assured of a profit from the "vig". If a specific
                                  > > team is popular, it could conceivably give an extra
                                  > > point or two in order to encourage betting on the
                                  > > other side.
                                  >
                                  > So then, the line reflects the betting public at large's opinion of
                                  > who will win, assuming that they are only trying to maximize profit
                                  > (and that bets based on pure emotion are rare enough to be ignored).
                                  > Right? The opening line may reflect a more expert opinion?
                                  >
                                  > What's a "vig"?

                                  More precisely, the opening line reflects the bookmaker's perception of
                                  what the betting public's expenditure-weighted average opinion is, and
                                  this opinion could be dumb or smart. As to the sporting events where
                                  there is more dumb money, I think these are well known to bookmakers,
                                  and aren't rare enough to be ignored. If I correctly recall overheard
                                  discussions on the matter, the Super Bowl draws in fools where regular-
                                  season NBA basketball games, say, don't. Accordingly, games where
                                  there is apt to be little action - again, say your average regular
                                  season game - the opening line can be thought to better reflect an
                                  unbiased expectation of the game outcome.

                                  As to what a vig is, that is the 10% that the loser (?) pays to the
                                  bookmaker.
                                • Michael Tamada
                                  ... From: schtevie2003 [mailto:schtevie@hotmail.com] Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2003 1:09 PM [...] ... Here s some of the results of research which have been
                                  Message 16 of 23 , Apr 23 2:39 PM
                                    -----Original Message-----
                                    From: schtevie2003 [mailto:schtevie@...]
                                    Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2003 1:09 PM

                                    [...]

                                    >More precisely, the opening line reflects the bookmaker's perception of
                                    >what the betting public's expenditure-weighted average opinion is, and
                                    >this opinion could be dumb or smart. As to the sporting events where
                                    >there is more dumb money, I think these are well known to bookmakers,
                                    >and aren't rare enough to be ignored. If I correctly recall overheard
                                    >discussions on the matter, the Super Bowl draws in fools where regular-
                                    >season NBA basketball games, say, don't. Accordingly, games where
                                    >there is apt to be little action - again, say your average regular
                                    >season game - the opening line can be thought to better reflect an
                                    >unbiased expectation of the game outcome.

                                    Here's some of the results of research which have been done on this,
                                    which are somewhat (but not completely) contradictory:

                                    1. For several years someone in Iowa I think has run an internet political
                                    betting room ... err futures market. People bet/buy futures in the outcome
                                    of say the presidential election. Half for fun, but half serious: this is
                                    real money, and the researchers who organize the market have compared the
                                    accuracy of this "market" prediction of the presidential outcomes to the
                                    predictions of the political pundits. Allegedly the market is usually of
                                    above average accuracy. Needless to say, it doesn't predict every election
                                    outcome correctly, but it is usually more accurate than the average pundit.

                                    2. I haven't seen heavy duty research into say Super Bowl betting vs regular
                                    season NBA bets but certainly the anecdotes that I've read about agree with
                                    what Schtevie says. There's also localized irrationality: one of the
                                    advantages of bookies with national connections is that they can balance
                                    the heavy preponderance of bets on say the Univ of Nebraska football team that
                                    get made in Lincoln NB vs the preponderance of bets on the Univ of Miami team
                                    that get made in Florida. The one piece of research showing irrational betting
                                    that I've seen was done on horse racing: the author claimed that bettors too
                                    often make "win" bets instead of "show" bets. I believe that they also bet
                                    on longshots too often.


                                    Bottom line, how good are the Vegas lines in revealing "expert" opinion on
                                    likely winners? Hmm, it'd probably be easy enough to compare the accuracy
                                    of their forecasts to some published sports pundit's forecasts. I'm guessing
                                    the Vegas lines would be at least as accurate as they typical sportswriter.


                                    I still wonder about those odds: we only were given the odds for the Top 4
                                    teams but the resulting probabilities already summed to 1.16. Even if the
                                    other 12 teams are longshots, adding in their probabilities of winning is going
                                    to result in numbers well in excess of 1.0, and as I originally observed:

                                    Those oddsmakers have set mathematically impossible odds. Of course with
                                    betting there has to be some sort of "vig" or margin for the oddsmakers to
                                    make money off of, but even if the next 4 playoff contenders are 19-1
                                    longshots, the sum of the resulting probabilities is creating a pretty fat
                                    margin in excess of 1.0.


                                    --MKT
                                  • Gary Collard
                                    ... The vig on point spreads is (traditionally, now it is 5-8% at many books) 10%, so the bettor will win 100 or lose 110, for example. If the bookmaker takes
                                    Message 17 of 23 , Apr 23 8:03 PM
                                      aaronkoo wrote:
                                      >
                                      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Richard Scott" <rnmscott@b...>
                                      > wrote:
                                      > > pretty standard for futures/horse racing type bets, to have 1.5% or
                                      > so per
                                      > > runner, again, otherwise, no money to bet made...
                                      > > >
                                      >
                                      > I never really thought about this stuff. How do they make their
                                      > money on point spread bets? (Is there any bias in point spreads that
                                      > we as researchers need to account for?)

                                      The vig on point spreads is (traditionally, now it is 5-8% at many books)
                                      10%, so the bettor will win 100 or lose 110, for example. If the bookmaker
                                      takes 10 of these bets on each side, he will pay one group 1000 and collect
                                      from the other 1100, a profit of 100. Of course the action is usually
                                      unbalanced, but you see the concept.

                                      There are definitely biases in spreads, things that will move them toward a
                                      team and away from another include popularity, current form, historical
                                      factors, etc. An example of a historical factor is that playoff teams down
                                      0-1 tend to cover game 2, thus for example New Jersey was 7 the first game
                                      but after a win dropped to 6 the second game.

                                      > The line on the first LA-Min game was LA favored by 1. I didn't see
                                      > it on the 2nd game. I'd think that if these point spreads aren't
                                      > biased, we could get at what Vegas really thinks the odds are.

                                      LAL opened at 1 and closed at 2 or 2.5 on Sunday. After looking so good,
                                      they opened 2 and colsed at mostly 3.5 the second game, despite the ternd
                                      noted above not many wanted any part of Min. Rest assured that the books
                                      enjoyed that game more than the most ardent Laker hater :)

                                      --
                                      Gary Collard
                                      SABR-L Moderator
                                      collardg@...
                                    • Gary Collard
                                      ... This is absolutely true, they are set to do some combination of balancing action, limiting risk, and beating professional/big money bettors or wise guys.
                                      Message 18 of 23 , Apr 23 8:11 PM
                                        schtevie2003 wrote:
                                        >
                                        > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "aaronkoo"
                                        > <deano@r...> wrote:
                                        > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Richard Scott"
                                        > <rnmscott@b...>
                                        > > wrote:
                                        > > > pretty standard for futures/horse racing type bets, to have
                                        > 1.5% or
                                        > > so per
                                        > > > runner, again, otherwise, no money to bet made...
                                        > > > >
                                        > >
                                        > > I never really thought about this stuff. How do they make their
                                        > > money on point spread bets? (Is there any bias in point
                                        > spreads that
                                        > > we as researchers need to account for?)
                                        > >
                                        > > The line on the first LA-Min game was LA favored by 1. I didn't
                                        > see
                                        > > it on the 2nd game. I'd think that if these point spreads aren't
                                        > > biased, we could get at what Vegas really thinks the odds are.
                                        > >
                                        > > DeanO
                                        >
                                        > As I understand it, point spread bets - like all lines - are all
                                        > biased in the sense that they do not purport to represent
                                        > expected outcomes. They are instead designed to ensure that
                                        > there is equal action on both sides, thereby minimizing the
                                        > bookmakers risk. Thus, they are unbiased only to the degree
                                        > that the able and willing bettors' perceptions are unbiased.

                                        This is absolutely true, they are set to do some combination of balancing
                                        action, limiting risk, and beating professional/big money bettors or "wise
                                        guys." A common misperception is that if Dallas is favored by 6 tonight
                                        that means that "Vegas" (really the Carribean and Australia these days,
                                        Vegas has lost most if its influence) thinks that Dallas is 6 points
                                        better. That is not necessarily true, although it is oftimes close.

                                        --
                                        Gary Collard
                                        SABR-L Moderator
                                        collardg@...
                                      • Gary Collard
                                        ... The first move after the opener is probably the most expert opinion. The less informed, public action on a game tedns to come in reltively close to
                                        Message 19 of 23 , Apr 23 8:13 PM
                                          aaronkoo wrote:
                                          >
                                          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Medea's Child
                                          > <medeas_child@y...> wrote:
                                          > > --- schtevie2003 <schtevie@h...> wrote:
                                          > > > As I understand it, point spread bets - like all
                                          > > > lines - are all
                                          > > > biased in the sense that they do not purport to
                                          > > > represent
                                          > > > expected outcomes. They are instead designed to
                                          > > > ensure that
                                          > > > there is equal action on both sides, thereby
                                          > > > minimizing the
                                          > > > bookmakers risk. Thus, they are unbiased only to
                                          > > > the degree
                                          > > > that the able and willing bettors' perceptions are
                                          > > > unbiased.
                                          > > >
                                          > > >
                                          > > I'm hardly an expert gambler, but I believe this is
                                          > > correct: the ideal situation for a bookmaker (at
                                          > > least, from a risk perspective) is a heavy volume of
                                          > > betting equal on both sides, with the bookmaker
                                          > > assured of a profit from the "vig". If a specific
                                          > > team is popular, it could conceivably give an extra
                                          > > point or two in order to encourage betting on the
                                          > > other side.
                                          >
                                          > So then, the line reflects the betting public at large's opinion of
                                          > who will win, assuming that they are only trying to maximize profit
                                          > (and that bets based on pure emotion are rare enough to be ignored).
                                          > Right? The opening line may reflect a more expert opinion?

                                          The first move after the opener is probably the most "expert" opinion. The
                                          less informed, "public" action on a game tedns to come in reltively close
                                          to game time, while pros hit the early lines (overnights in the case of
                                          basketball).

                                          --
                                          Gary Collard
                                          SABR-L Moderator
                                          collardg@...
                                        • Gary Collard
                                          ... This is true. Football, and particularly pro football, is where the common fan has the most influence over the line. Regular season basketball is bet
                                          Message 20 of 23 , Apr 23 8:19 PM
                                            schtevie2003 wrote:
                                            >
                                            > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "aaronkoo" <deano@r...> wrote:
                                            > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Medea's Child
                                            > > <medeas_child@y...> wrote:
                                            > > > --- schtevie2003 <schtevie@h...> wrote:
                                            > > > > As I understand it, point spread bets - like all
                                            > > > > lines - are all
                                            > > > > biased in the sense that they do not purport to
                                            > > > > represent
                                            > > > > expected outcomes. They are instead designed to
                                            > > > > ensure that
                                            > > > > there is equal action on both sides, thereby
                                            > > > > minimizing the
                                            > > > > bookmakers risk. Thus, they are unbiased only to
                                            > > > > the degree
                                            > > > > that the able and willing bettors' perceptions are
                                            > > > > unbiased.
                                            > > > >
                                            > > > >
                                            > > > I'm hardly an expert gambler, but I believe this is
                                            > > > correct: the ideal situation for a bookmaker (at
                                            > > > least, from a risk perspective) is a heavy volume of
                                            > > > betting equal on both sides, with the bookmaker
                                            > > > assured of a profit from the "vig". If a specific
                                            > > > team is popular, it could conceivably give an extra
                                            > > > point or two in order to encourage betting on the
                                            > > > other side.
                                            > >
                                            > > So then, the line reflects the betting public at large's opinion of
                                            > > who will win, assuming that they are only trying to maximize profit
                                            > > (and that bets based on pure emotion are rare enough to be ignored).
                                            > > Right? The opening line may reflect a more expert opinion?
                                            > >
                                            > > What's a "vig"?
                                            >
                                            > More precisely, the opening line reflects the bookmaker's perception of
                                            > what the betting public's expenditure-weighted average opinion is, and
                                            > this opinion could be dumb or smart. As to the sporting events where
                                            > there is more dumb money, I think these are well known to bookmakers,
                                            > and aren't rare enough to be ignored. If I correctly recall overheard
                                            > discussions on the matter, the Super Bowl draws in fools where regular-
                                            > season NBA basketball games, say, don't. Accordingly, games where
                                            > there is apt to be little action - again, say your average regular
                                            > season game - the opening line can be thought to better reflect an
                                            > unbiased expectation of the game outcome.

                                            This is true. Football, and particularly pro football, is where the common
                                            fan has the most influence over the line. Regular season basketball is bet
                                            mostly by more sophisticated players, with the playoffs and particularly
                                            the NCAA tourney becoming a bit more "public."

                                            A good discussion of opening lines written by a friend of mine is at
                                            http://www.whocovers.com/cgi-bin/showarticle.cgi?name=ar5

                                            --
                                            Gary Collard
                                            SABR-L Moderator
                                            collardg@...
                                          • Michael Tamada
                                            I don t think that your vote is an outlier in any standard statistical sense; we know that the mean and median vote is in the 60-70% range, and your 55% vote
                                            Message 21 of 23 , May 11, 2004
                                              I don't think that your vote is an outlier in any standard statistical sense; we know that the mean and median vote is in the 60-70% range, and your 55% vote puts you in the category just below that. Two voters, in the 80-90% range, are located two categories distant from the mean and median range.



                                              --MKT


                                              -----Original Message-----
                                              From: Mike G [mailto:msg_53@...]
                                              Sent: Tuesday, May 11, 2004 5:32 AM
                                              To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                                              Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Poll results for APBR_analysis


                                              The collective subjective guesstimate averages out to 70% as the
                                              answer to this question:

                                              > POLL QUESTION: How often (on defense) is a player
                                              > guarding the equivalent position
                                              > player from the other team?..>
                                              > CHOICES AND RESULTS

                                              > - 80-90%, 2 votes, 16.67%
                                              > - 70-80%, 3 votes, 25.00%
                                              > - 60-70%, 6 votes, 50.00%
                                              > - 50-60%, 1 votes, 8.33%

                                              If we discount the outlier at the 55% spot (mine), the average jumps
                                              to 71%.









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