Re: More on the Mavs
- --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gary Collard <collardg@e...>
> Michael Tamada wrote:Kings
> > the Mavs favor I think is that they're now a playoff-tested,
> > battle-experienced team, from their series last year against the
> > (still one of my favorite playoff series from the last severalyears:
> > two teams actually willing to run and shoot).season is
> But not play D...around these parts the most repeated stat of the
> that, of 207 Sac FG in that series, 115 of them were layups ordunks. That
> could be only in the four losses, now that I think about it, notsure if
> that is for four or five games. Whatever it was, it showed thatyou can
> take the coach out of the RunTMC, but you can't take the RunTMC outof the
> coach :)Having watched the most recent matchup between these two and seeing a
bunch of layups, I decided to look at the Mavs trend this year.
Their D has definitely taken a dumper over the season after starting
off so well. They started off well through November, got bad in
early December, recovered a bit in late December to early January,
but have been bad since. Not really even average, but bad. The game
against the Kings was also bad.
Nowitzki gets a bad rap for his defense, but some of it is just that
his team sets him up for failure. He is not a bad defender at help
defense or getting boards. He's not particularly good on the ball,
especially against quicker guys. He's ok against big slow guys like
himself, but the Mavs leave him on an island and seem to assign him
to guys he shouldn't be covering. (He also needs a couple basic
lessons in stopping a shot.)
I didn't see a lot of the Mavs early on and their zone. But they
must have been communicating a bit better then. They seem to be
slacking right now. Their net point difference over the last month
and a half is not that of a 60 win team -- that would be a numerical
indicator for why we don't think they'll win, as well as some of the
other things we've said. The question is whether they can get their
D back. Is anyone down in the Big D talking about Better D? I'm not
there, so I don't know. I do believe that these Mavs can win the
title and have a very good chance IF they commit to defense (note the
big IF). I don't hear that commitment to D and I'd say the odds are
not great of them figuring out how to make that improvement.
- "Dean Oliver " wrote:
>Oh, absolutely. All of it is covered regularly - the soft D, poor
> Is anyone down in the Big D talking about Better D? I'm not
> there, so I don't know.
rebounding, 1-5 record against the top teams. The thing is, I think it has
led to the general fan being a bit more reserved in his expectations for
this team, and that is probably a good thing. Looking back at Det v Bos,
Chi v Det, and Sac v LAL, the team trying to get over the hump usually does
not do it in their second try. History tells us that Sac may well be ready
to beat LAL, but Dal is not yet ready to take that next step.
The good news for the locals is that they will probably get a Stanley Cup
out of the deal, a decent consolation prize.
"Every time I see the U.S. flag, I don't see the flag only
representative of a country, but I see it as a symbol of
democracy and of freedom."
-- Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi
- My own supposition is that the Mavs will have the best record, but if
the Kings had been in one piece they would have at least matched it;
my playoff prediction assumes equal health by both clubs.
--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver <deano@r...>"
> I guess one of the underlying questions of why people (7/11,
> according to the poll) think the Kings are likely to win the title
> is: Do we think the Kings will end up with the best regular season
> record over the Mavs?
> I'll set up a poll for that, too. Clearly, most people pick one
> at the start of the season to have the best regular season recordand
> win the title. It's cases where we don't think that will happenthat
> require some understanding.
> More informally, do we think the Mavs D -- if it's a gimmick -- is
> going to get worse as the season progresses? I think I see
> indications of that.