Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: More on the Mavs

Expand Messages
  • Dean Oliver <deano@rawbw.com>
    ... Kings ... season is ... dunks. That ... sure if ... you can ... of the ... Having watched the most recent matchup between these two and seeing a bunch of
    Message 1 of 10 , Mar 1, 2003
    • 0 Attachment
      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gary Collard <collardg@e...>
      wrote:
      > Michael Tamada wrote:
      > >
      > > the Mavs favor I think is that they're now a playoff-tested,
      > > battle-experienced team, from their series last year against the
      Kings
      > > (still one of my favorite playoff series from the last several
      years:
      > > two teams actually willing to run and shoot).
      >
      > But not play D...around these parts the most repeated stat of the
      season is
      > that, of 207 Sac FG in that series, 115 of them were layups or
      dunks. That
      > could be only in the four losses, now that I think about it, not
      sure if
      > that is for four or five games. Whatever it was, it showed that
      you can
      > take the coach out of the RunTMC, but you can't take the RunTMC out
      of the
      > coach :)

      Having watched the most recent matchup between these two and seeing a
      bunch of layups, I decided to look at the Mavs trend this year.
      Their D has definitely taken a dumper over the season after starting
      off so well. They started off well through November, got bad in
      early December, recovered a bit in late December to early January,
      but have been bad since. Not really even average, but bad. The game
      against the Kings was also bad.

      Nowitzki gets a bad rap for his defense, but some of it is just that
      his team sets him up for failure. He is not a bad defender at help
      defense or getting boards. He's not particularly good on the ball,
      especially against quicker guys. He's ok against big slow guys like
      himself, but the Mavs leave him on an island and seem to assign him
      to guys he shouldn't be covering. (He also needs a couple basic
      lessons in stopping a shot.)

      I didn't see a lot of the Mavs early on and their zone. But they
      must have been communicating a bit better then. They seem to be
      slacking right now. Their net point difference over the last month
      and a half is not that of a 60 win team -- that would be a numerical
      indicator for why we don't think they'll win, as well as some of the
      other things we've said. The question is whether they can get their
      D back. Is anyone down in the Big D talking about Better D? I'm not
      there, so I don't know. I do believe that these Mavs can win the
      title and have a very good chance IF they commit to defense (note the
      big IF). I don't hear that commitment to D and I'd say the odds are
      not great of them figuring out how to make that improvement.

      DeanO
    • Gary Collard
      ... Oh, absolutely. All of it is covered regularly - the soft D, poor rebounding, 1-5 record against the top teams. The thing is, I think it has led to the
      Message 2 of 10 , Mar 1, 2003
      • 0 Attachment
        "Dean Oliver " wrote:
        >
        > Is anyone down in the Big D talking about Better D? I'm not
        > there, so I don't know.

        Oh, absolutely. All of it is covered regularly - the soft D, poor
        rebounding, 1-5 record against the top teams. The thing is, I think it has
        led to the general fan being a bit more reserved in his expectations for
        this team, and that is probably a good thing. Looking back at Det v Bos,
        Chi v Det, and Sac v LAL, the team trying to get over the hump usually does
        not do it in their second try. History tells us that Sac may well be ready
        to beat LAL, but Dal is not yet ready to take that next step.

        The good news for the locals is that they will probably get a Stanley Cup
        out of the deal, a decent consolation prize.

        --
        Gary Collard
        SABR-L Moderator
        collardg@...

        "Every time I see the U.S. flag, I don't see the flag only
        representative of a country, but I see it as a symbol of
        democracy and of freedom."
        -- Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi
      • John Hollinger <alleyoop2@yahoo.com>
        My own supposition is that the Mavs will have the best record, but if the Kings had been in one piece they would have at least matched it; my playoff
        Message 3 of 10 , Mar 3, 2003
        • 0 Attachment
          My own supposition is that the Mavs will have the best record, but if
          the Kings had been in one piece they would have at least matched it;
          my playoff prediction assumes equal health by both clubs.




          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver <deano@r...>"
          <deano@r...> wrote:
          >
          > I guess one of the underlying questions of why people (7/11,
          > according to the poll) think the Kings are likely to win the title
          > is: Do we think the Kings will end up with the best regular season
          > record over the Mavs?
          >
          > I'll set up a poll for that, too. Clearly, most people pick one
          team
          > at the start of the season to have the best regular season record
          and
          > win the title. It's cases where we don't think that will happen
          that
          > require some understanding.
          >
          > More informally, do we think the Mavs D -- if it's a gimmick -- is
          > going to get worse as the season progresses? I think I see
          > indications of that.
          >
          > DeanO
        Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.