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Re: [APBR_analysis] All-Time Lakers Team

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  • Ed Weiland
    ... Just curious here, Mike. How did you estimate the blocks, steals and turnovers for each player? And when is that all-time Bulls list coming? I m dying to
    Message 1 of 5 , Jul 14, 2001
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      --- Mike Goodman <msg_53@...> wrote:
      > I have updated my statistics base thru 2001, and
      > for fun I have
      > Lakers careers (and sub-careers) ranked in the same
      > manner as my
      > infamous all-time list. I will include brief
      > descriptions of the
      > categories.
      > G: Games, Regular season + Playoffs
      > RegSe: Season productivity, projected Points +
      > Rebounds, etc., per
      > 36 minutes.
      > PO%: fraction of career minutes which were in
      > postseason
      > PlaOf: Playoff productivity, see above.
      > RSpts: Total regular-season production,
      > standardized, square
      > rooted and multiplied by column 4 (RegSe). Brownie
      > points.
      > POpts: Playoff production, likewise.
      > Total: sum of columns 7 and 8.
      > These last 3 columns are not meant to represent
      > any real
      > accomplishment, but are a value assigned to one's
      > regular season and
      > playoff careers, for the purpose of comparison.
      > Remember, this is all just for fun.
      >
      > G RegSe PO% PlaOf RSpts POpts Total
      > 1 Magic 1096 40.4 .18 39.7 8505 3970 12474
      > 2 Kareem 1273 39.3 .14 37.8 8665 3454 12119
      > 3 West 1084 40.5 .15 41.0 8300 3488 11788
      > 4 Shaq 382 48.0 .19 47.4 6648 3176 9824
      > 5 Baylor 979 36.2 .14 35.5 7066 2543 9609
      > 6 Worthy 1069 29.6 .15 31.0 5052 2285 7337
      > 7 Wilt 419 36.4 .20 34.1 4924 2047 6971
      > 8 Mikan 284 39.7 .15 41.8 4143 2274 6417
      > 9 Goodrich 760 29.8 .10 28.7 4047 1335 5382
      > 10 Kobe 400 33.2 .18 33.5 3611 1752 5363
      > 11 Scott 996 25.2 .16 24.0 3701 1509 5210
      > 12 Mikkelsen 634 27.7 .10 26.0 3523 1247 4770
      > 13 Divac 571 30.4 .09 28.5 3737 1021 4757
      > 14 Wilkes 648 27.3 .11 24.7 3492 1154 4646
      > 15 Nixon 544 26.4 .11 26.8 3145 1252 4397
      > 16 Cooper 1038 21.5 .17 22.3 2879 1437 4316
      > 17 Green 861 24.1 .13 21.7 3164 1122 4286
      > 18 Lovellett 310 32.1 .08 32.4 2984 1010 3994
      > 19 Hairston 390 29.5 .12 25.2 2919 916 3835
      > 20 LaRusso 661 23.9 .12 21.5 2874 846 3720
      >
      > Notes:
      > The "square rooting" is a means of diminishing
      > one's regular
      > season totals in comparison to one's playoff totals.
      > For example,
      > Gail Goodrich played 10% of his Lakers minutes in
      > postseason, which
      > means 1/10, or a 9:1 ratio (RS/PO). Taking the
      > square roots of his
      > totals creates about a 3:1 ratio in his "pts"
      > columns. (the square
      > root of 9 is 3). This reflects my bias, that the
      > playoffs are what
      > it's all about.
      > The Lakers are perhaps unique in never having a
      > prolonged drought
      > between playoff runs. I found no major player in
      > franchise history
      > with more than 1 year of service, and no playoff
      > appearances.
      > Not showing in this chart is "rings", the number
      > of championships
      > players partook in. For each ring, a player is
      > credited another 10
      > playoff games at their career playoff rate.
      > Players are credited an estimated number of
      > blocks, steals, and
      > turnovers from times before such stats were
      > recorded. I gave Wilt 4
      > blocks per game.

      Just curious here, Mike. How did you estimate the
      blocks, steals and turnovers for each player?

      And when is that all-time Bulls list coming? I'm dying
      to know where Leon Benbow rates. : )

      Ed Weiland
      >
      >


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    • Mike Goodman
      ... Sorry to take so long to get back to you, Ed. I don t claim to have a decent method of estimating steals, blocks, or turnovers. However, I have come up
      Message 2 of 5 , Jul 22, 2001
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., Ed Weiland <weiland1029@y...> wrote:
        > > Players are credited an estimated number of
        > > blocks, steals, and
        > > turnovers from times before such stats were
        > > recorded. I gave Wilt 4
        > > blocks per game.
        >
        Sorry to take so long to get back to you, Ed.
        I don't claim to have a decent method of estimating steals,
        blocks, or turnovers. However, I have come up with an average
        correlation with other stats, that I find relatively inoffensive.
        Steals seem to correlate most closely with assists, and I guess
        that a player's steals are related to his normalized assist rate,
        thus: Steals = SqRt(Ast)-0.4
        SqRt means "square root of"
        For example, Maurice Stokes averaged 5.4 assists (per 36 minutes,
        standardized). SqRt(5.4) = 2.3, and 2.3 - .4 = 1.9. So I credit
        Stokes with 1.9 steals per 36 minutes, and his 3 year
        career "equivalent steals" total is 391.
        For sure, there are major deviations, from player to player, in
        this estimate, and there are a handful of cases in which I use
        anecdotal evidence to adjust my statistical "guess". However, for
        the purposes of career evaluation, a difference of even a steal a
        game very seldom changes a player's career ranking more than one
        place, usually none.
        In other words, assigning Maurice Stokes .9 steals, or 1.9, or 2.9
        does not make much difference in the career rankings scheme.
        While both assists and steals are a result of "good hands", and
        anticipation, and quickness, etc; blocked-shots are mostly correlated
        to rebounds, being a big-man thing.
        The formula for blocks is : Blk = SqRt(Reb) - 1.6. For Mr.
        Stokes, his career standardized rebound rate is 13.5, and his
        estimated shot-blocking is 2.1. This could be way off, but it seems
        to be a good average when applied to modern players. Again, there
        are major deviations.
        My feeling is that an educated guess is better than nothing, and I
        am constantly open to what I call "anecdotal evidence" (as opposed to
        statistical), and I consider any first-hand witnessing to be better
        than no evidence at all.
        Turnovers can be predicted, too, and the factors are many. The
        traditional belief is that assists are most closely related to
        turnovers, but in fact scoring and rebounding are, also.
        If you have any idea what I am referring to when I talk about
        standardized rates (and I have posted a few), the turnover formula is
        this: TO = .08(Sco)+.07(Reb)+.16(Ast)+.05(Stl)+.10(Blk)-.005(MPG).
        Here, MPG is minutes per game, and the other factors are multiples of
        the standardized per-36-minute scoring rate, etc.
        Strangely, blocks are 2nd to assists in correlation with turnovers.
        Assists, obviously, require passing, and some turnovers are
        inevitable.
        Scorers lose the ball more than non-scorers, in general.
        Apparently, rebounding causes a player to have possession, and he
        can then be stripped or throw a bad pass.
        Steals may indicate a gambling mentality, thus turnovers on the
        other end.
        Minutes are a factor because the jitters go away after the first
        few; and retrospectively, players with good numbers but few minutes
        may have been turnover-prone.
        I would love to know how to actually plug in a few hundred player
        stats and have my computer generate these correlations; all I have
        managed is to tinker with the numbers until a good average is
        achieved. After a tinkering, I just check the extremes at either
        end, trying to minimize.
        As always, I am open to any suggestion, except to "stop trying"
        or "give up".



        > Just curious here, Mike. How did you estimate the
        > blocks, steals and turnovers for each player?
        >
        > And when is that all-time Bulls list coming? I'm dying
        > to know where Leon Benbow rates. : )
        >
        > Ed Weiland
        > >
        > >
        >
        >
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      • Mike Goodman
        ... Alright, Ed, read em and weep: Alltime Chicago Bulls Lineup: RegSea PlaOf Total 1 Michael Jordan 11157 5447 16604 2 Scottie Pippen 6430 3126
        Message 3 of 5 , Jul 22, 2001
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., Ed Weiland <weiland1029@y...> wrote:
          > And when is that all-time Bulls list coming? I'm dying
          > to know where Leon Benbow rates. : )
          >
          > Ed Weiland
          > >
          > >
          Alright, Ed, read 'em and weep:

          Alltime Chicago Bulls Lineup:

          RegSea PlaOf Total
          1 Michael Jordan 11157 5447 16604
          2 Scottie Pippen 6430 3126 9556
          3 Artis Gilmore 5105 632 5737
          4 Horace Grant 3856 1762 5617
          5 Toni Kukoc 3477 1371 4849
          6 Chet Walker 3605 883 4487
          7 Bob Love 3459 960 4419
          8 Jerry Sloan 3106 747 3853
          9 Norm Van Lier 2900 727 3626
          10 Tom Boerwinkle 2892 733 3625
          11 Reggie Theus 3025 407 3432
          12 Mickey Johnson 2864 453 3317
          13 David Greenwood 2832 444 3276
          14 B.J. Armstrong 2345 897 3241
          15 Clifford Ray 2383 645 3028
          16 Charles Oakley 2369 588 2956
          17 Dennis Rodman 1916 964 2880
          18 Orlando Woolridge 2602 265 2867
          19 Luc Longley 1858 960 2819
          20 Bob Boozer 2344 454 2797
          21 Ron Harper 1813 951 2764
          22 Dave Corzine 2367 339 2706
          23 Bill Cartwright 1804 840 2644
          24 John Paxson 1890 713 2603
          25 Elton Brand 2596 0 2596

          Leon Benbow is not this side of the horizon.
          >
          >
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        • Michael K. Tamada
          On Mon, 23 Jul 2001, Mike Goodman wrote: [...] ... [...] ... What you want to use is multivariate regression analysis also known as ordinary least squares
          Message 4 of 5 , Jul 23, 2001
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            On Mon, 23 Jul 2001, Mike Goodman wrote:

            [...]

            > Turnovers can be predicted, too, and the factors are many. The
            > traditional belief is that assists are most closely related to
            > turnovers, but in fact scoring and rebounding are, also.
            > If you have any idea what I am referring to when I talk about
            > standardized rates (and I have posted a few), the turnover formula is
            > this: TO = .08(Sco)+.07(Reb)+.16(Ast)+.05(Stl)+.10(Blk)-.005(MPG).

            [...]

            > I would love to know how to actually plug in a few hundred player
            > stats and have my computer generate these correlations; all I have
            > managed is to tinker with the numbers until a good average is
            > achieved. After a tinkering, I just check the extremes at either
            > end, trying to minimize.

            What you want to use is "multivariate regression analysis" also known as
            "ordinary least squares regression". I believe that Excel will only do
            univariate regression. There are however freeware regression programs
            available; I don't use any of them because I've got paid-for programs but
            I know they are out there ... I know there was a shareware or freeware
            econometrics program available at Penn State University's website. Also
            there is a package called "R" which is a shareware or freeware version of
            "S", a package widely used by statisticians. However S, and I imagine R,
            are aimed more at theoretical statisticians and people who need to develop
            and program their own statistics, rather than being aimed at users who
            simply want to crunch some numbers using standard techniques.

            The technique you describe is a standard one for filling in missing data;
            i.e. run regressions to come up with equations predicting what a player's
            turnovers per minute will be.

            Obviously the technique becomes shakier as the amount of missing data
            increases, in particular for years prior to 197? when there are NO data at
            all on turnovers. Then you have to make assumptions that the turnover
            equations for, say, 1957, are the same as the ones for 197?-2001. In
            other words, extrapolation is a lot more difficult than interpolation, and
            for years with no turnover data whatsoever, we're extrapolating rather
            than interpolating.

            So the equations should be double-checked by, e.g. looking at
            season-by-season data to see if there are time trends. E.g. I believe
            that offensive rebounding percentages gradually increased during the
            1970s and 1980s. I believe that turnover rates (certainly per minute, and
            possibly relative to scoring, rebounding, etc.) declined in the 1980s and
            1990s. And for sure, field goal percentages rose for decades, until some
            time in the 1990s when they started declining.

            So the equations for predicting turnovers in the "modern" NBA may not work
            for predicting turnovers in the NBA of the 1950s.

            On the bright side, OLS will be much much faster AND lead to better, more
            accurate equations than fiddling around by hand.


            --MKT
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