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Crunch Time

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  • Dean Oliver <deano@rawbw.com>
    I really hate how every little thing the NBA does has to have a corporate sponsor. I should have called this the Jelly Belly APBR_Analysis site. But now the
    Message 1 of 4 , Feb 24, 2003
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      I really hate how every little thing the NBA does has to have a
      corporate sponsor. I should have called this the Jelly Belly
      APBR_Analysis site. But now the NBA has the Nestle Crunch Time stat,
      as defined at

      http://www.nba.com/features/nestle/crunch_time_stat.html

      It's a first try at quantifying how well guys play in the clutch. It
      leaves a lot to be desired, but it's worth looking at for now. The
      methodology is just the Manley Credit formula applied in the last 2
      minutes of games and overtimes, with no credit being given to teams
      winning by 15+ with 2 minutes left to go. They also give 4 pts
      credit to any player on the winning team. That means it's rather
      impressive to see Pau Gasol on the list, who has a rather significant
      handicap in the win department.

      With Dean Lavergne's play-by-play database, we can improve upon this
      significantly, but that will take a little time. How's the db
      coming, Dean?

      The other reason I hate the advertising -- now I have a craving for a
      Klondike Bar and can't get the stupid song out of my head. (Of
      course, that's not what Nestle wanted...)

      DeanO
    • John Hollinger <alleyoop2@yahoo.com>
      Actually, I believe Gasol is in there because the formula is set up to massively overrate guys who play a lot of OT games, and the Griz have had a ton. ...
      Message 2 of 4 , Feb 24, 2003
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        Actually, I believe Gasol is in there because the formula is set up
        to massively overrate guys who play a lot of OT games, and the Griz
        have had a ton.



        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver <deano@r...>"
        <deano@r...> wrote:
        >
        > I really hate how every little thing the NBA does has to have a
        > corporate sponsor. I should have called this the Jelly Belly
        > APBR_Analysis site. But now the NBA has the Nestle Crunch Time
        stat,
        > as defined at
        >
        > http://www.nba.com/features/nestle/crunch_time_stat.html
        >
        > It's a first try at quantifying how well guys play in the clutch.
        It
        > leaves a lot to be desired, but it's worth looking at for now. The
        > methodology is just the Manley Credit formula applied in the last 2
        > minutes of games and overtimes, with no credit being given to teams
        > winning by 15+ with 2 minutes left to go. They also give 4 pts
        > credit to any player on the winning team. That means it's rather
        > impressive to see Pau Gasol on the list, who has a rather
        significant
        > handicap in the win department.
        >
        > With Dean Lavergne's play-by-play database, we can improve upon
        this
        > significantly, but that will take a little time. How's the db
        > coming, Dean?
        >
        > The other reason I hate the advertising -- now I have a craving for
        a
        > Klondike Bar and can't get the stupid song out of my head. (Of
        > course, that's not what Nestle wanted...)
        >
        > DeanO
      • Michael Tamada
        ... From: Dean Oliver [mailto:deano@rawbw.com] Sent: Monday, February 24, 2003 2:50 PM To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com Subject:
        Message 3 of 4 , Feb 24, 2003
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          -----Original Message-----
          From: Dean Oliver <deano@...> [mailto:deano@...]
          Sent: Monday, February 24, 2003 2:50 PM
          To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: [APBR_analysis] Crunch Time

          [...]

          leaves a lot to be desired, but it's worth looking at for now. The
          methodology is just the Manley Credit formula applied in the last 2
          minutes of games and overtimes, with no credit being given to teams
          winning by 15+ with 2 minutes left to go. They also give 4 pts
          ^^^

          This is the part that's bizarre to me ... a 14 minute lead with 2 minutes to play is, IMO, *garbage time*, not "crunch time"! Regardless of whether the team ends up winning or losing.

          If we restrict ourselves to using only simple formulas like the Nestle Crunch Time rating, then I think a far better cut-off would've been something like "overtime, or last two minutes with the score differential at 8 points or less. If we wanted to broaden the definition of crunch time, a better direction I think would be "last four minutes, if the score differential is 8 points or less".

          There's the question of whether the score differential ceiling (be it 15 points or 8 points" needs to be checked only once, at the 2-minute mark (or 4 minute mark), or does it need to be satisfied continually: if the score differential climbs to 16 points with 1 minute left, does than cause the Crunch-o-meter to be turned off, or does a player continue to accumulate crunch stats? (On this question, I could go either way ... the one-time-check procedure would be easier to use, but a bit less accurate in determining true crunch time.)

          But a basic problem with these counting stat type measures is that even under the broad Crunch time definition used by the NBA, some players will simply have more crunch time opportunities than others, due to their teams being involved in fewer blowouts and fewer blowout losses. It's kind of like asking who accumulated the most playoff points in NBA history; such a stat reflects not only the players' abilities, but also how good a team he was on.


          --MKT
        • Dean LaVergne
          ... As soon as I can solve the identical name problem we re there. I m testing an algorithm this week. Once I m comfortable with the method, the data will be
          Message 4 of 4 , Feb 25, 2003
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            --- "Dean Oliver <deano@...>" <deano@...>
            wrote:
            >
            > With Dean Lavergne's play-by-play database, we can
            > improve upon this
            > significantly, but that will take a little time.
            > How's the db
            > coming, Dean?
            >
            > DeanO
            >
            As soon as I can solve the identical name problem
            we're there. I'm testing an algorithm this week.

            Once I'm comfortable with the method, the data will be
            done in a day.

            DeanL



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