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Elton Brand, uh, ain't so good

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  • Dean Oliver
    David Aldridge of ESPN is very good. He tells it straight and occasionally makes a very keen observation. He definitely did with the Clippers trade for Elton
    Message 1 of 5 , Jul 5, 2001
      David Aldridge of ESPN is very good. He tells it straight and
      occasionally makes a very keen observation. He definitely did with
      the Clippers trade for Elton Brand this year. Here is what he said:

      "Brand's a good player, don't get me wrong. But he put up his 20 and
      10 numbers in the east, where power forwards are often of the Tim
      Thomas/Keith Van Horn/Bo Outlaw variety. In the west, Brand will face
      a steady diet of bigger fours: Tim Duncan, Wallace, Karl Malone,
      Antonio McDyess, Kevin Garnett. Will he be as solid?"
      ---http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2001/s/2001/0628/1219913.html

      Ohmigosh. We'd been talking here about how Brand was the best PF in
      the east and never really realized how that translated with a move to
      the west. So I did some calculations to see whether Brand does as
      well against the West as against the East. Here is what I found:

      Min Sc.Poss Poss Floor% Ortg PtsProd DRtg
      West 37.3 478 985 0.485 97.4 960 103.7
      East 38.5 1005 1957 0.514 103.7 2029 101.5
      Total 38.1 1483 2942 0.504 101.6 2989 102.2

      Brand did MUCH better against the East in his 2 year career. He was
      a very solid player against Eastern teams, but well under 0.500
      against the West, where he is undersized tremendously. Neither
      Brand's offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) nor his
      defensive rating are statistically different at the 95% level (85 and
      75, resp). However, the difference between his offensive and
      defensive ratings is statistically significant at the 95% level.
      That means that we're 95% sure he's been getting (going to get?) his
      butt kicked by the West.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
      http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/index.html
    • harlanzo@yahoo.com
      Very true about Brand. However, my sense is that this is still a good trade for the Clippers. I base this conlcusion on the speculative value that a draft
      Message 2 of 5 , Jul 5, 2001
        Very true about Brand. However, my sense is that this is still a
        good trade for the Clippers. I base this conlcusion on the
        speculative value that a draft pick (particularly Chandler) has and
        the fact that Chandler's primary skill, shot blocking, the clips
        already get from Miles, Olowokandi, and (surprisingly) Odom. Brand
        will make a nice low post scorer but the increased competition and
        the fact that the Clips have other scorers could push his numbers
        down to say 15-16 ppg and 9 rpg. Despite the lower numbers, the
        clips really do need a back to the basket scorer in their front
        court. Should be fun to watch this team until Donald Sterling screws
        it up.

        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
        >
        > David Aldridge of ESPN is very good. He tells it straight and
        > occasionally makes a very keen observation. He definitely did with
        > the Clippers trade for Elton Brand this year. Here is what he said:
        >
        > "Brand's a good player, don't get me wrong. But he put up his 20
        and
        > 10 numbers in the east, where power forwards are often of the Tim
        > Thomas/Keith Van Horn/Bo Outlaw variety. In the west, Brand will
        face
        > a steady diet of bigger fours: Tim Duncan, Wallace, Karl Malone,
        > Antonio McDyess, Kevin Garnett. Will he be as solid?"
        > ---http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2001/s/2001/0628/1219913.html
        >
        > Ohmigosh. We'd been talking here about how Brand was the best PF
        in
        > the east and never really realized how that translated with a move
        to
        > the west. So I did some calculations to see whether Brand does as
        > well against the West as against the East. Here is what I found:
        >
        > Min Sc.Poss Poss Floor% Ortg PtsProd DRtg
        > West 37.3 478 985 0.485 97.4 960 103.7
        > East 38.5 1005 1957 0.514 103.7 2029 101.5
        > Total 38.1 1483 2942 0.504 101.6 2989 102.2
        >
        > Brand did MUCH better against the East in his 2 year career. He
        was
        > a very solid player against Eastern teams, but well under 0.500
        > against the West, where he is undersized tremendously. Neither
        > Brand's offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) nor his
        > defensive rating are statistically different at the 95% level (85
        and
        > 75, resp). However, the difference between his offensive and
        > defensive ratings is statistically significant at the 95% level.
        > That means that we're 95% sure he's been getting (going to get?)
        his
        > butt kicked by the West.
        >
        > Dean Oliver
        > Journal of Basketball Studies
        > http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/index.html
      • Mike Goodman
        ... I did some calculations to see whether Brand does as ... was ... Deano, are you sure Brand s reduced production against the West is the result of better
        Message 3 of 5 , Jul 6, 2001
          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
          I did some calculations to see whether Brand does as
          > well against the West as against the East. Here is what I found:
          >
          > Min Sc.Poss Poss Floor% Ortg PtsProd DRtg
          > West 37.3 478 985 0.485 97.4 960 103.7
          > East 38.5 1005 1957 0.514 103.7 2029 101.5
          > Total 38.1 1483 2942 0.504 101.6 2989 102.2
          >
          > Brand did MUCH better against the East in his 2 year career. He
          was
          > a very solid player against Eastern teams, but well under 0.500
          > against the West, where he is undersized tremendously.

          Deano, are you sure Brand's reduced production against the West is
          the result of better players at his position? Or, could it be just
          that the teams are better in the West? Positions are not isolated
          matchups in real games.
          When the Bulls were great, yet had "no center", they often ran
          opposing centers off the court. Nothing to do with their being
          overmatched at their position.
          Another way to look at it: Brand comes from the Bulls, worst team
          in the East (and going nowhere). He goes to the Clips, not the worst
          team in the West (and perhaps rising). In other words, he has a lot
          more help, he may well be in more winning games, and as you say,
          other guys will be getting offensive boards and blocks, freeing him
          up to roam.
          Earlier last season, a Portland fan told me the reason Jermaine
          O'Neal improved this year was that he played most of his games in the
          East. So I checked, and Jermaine had actually done better against
          the West (ppg, rpg, fg%). It is not to be assumed.
          I will get back with an Elton Brand study of my own.

          Neither
          > Brand's offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) nor his
          > defensive rating are statistically different at the 95% level (85
          and
          > 75, resp). However, the difference between his offensive and
          > defensive ratings is statistically significant at the 95% level.
          > That means that we're 95% sure he's been getting (going to get?)
          his
          > butt kicked by the West.
          >
          > Dean Oliver
          > Journal of Basketball Studies
          > http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/index.html
        • Dean Oliver
          ... First, I do think it wasn t a bad trade for the Clips. They definitely didn t need another who-knows-what-the-kid-will-do guy fresh out of diapers. Brand
          Message 4 of 5 , Jul 6, 2001
            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Mike Goodman" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
            > I did some calculations to see whether Brand does as
            > > well against the West as against the East. Here is what I found:
            > >
            > > Min Sc.Poss Poss Floor% Ortg PtsProd DRtg
            > > West 37.3 478 985 0.485 97.4 960 103.7
            > > East 38.5 1005 1957 0.514 103.7 2029 101.5
            > > Total 38.1 1483 2942 0.504 101.6 2989 102.2
            > >
            > > Brand did MUCH better against the East in his 2 year career. He
            > was
            > > a very solid player against Eastern teams, but well under 0.500
            > > against the West, where he is undersized tremendously.
            >

            First, I do think it wasn't a bad trade for the Clips. They
            definitely didn't need another who-knows-what-the-kid-will-do guy
            fresh out of diapers. Brand isn't great, but he's a different type of
            player on a team that could use his basic skills. If he gets
            Olowokandi out of the lineup a bit more, that is a big score for the
            Clips.

            > Deano, are you sure Brand's reduced production against the West
            is
            > the result of better players at his position? Or, could it be just
            > that the teams are better in the West? Positions are not isolated
            > matchups in real games.

            Hmm, how to test this? I guess we could look at his stats against
            comparable opponents (record-wise) who have very different PF's. I'm
            not going to be home for a few days, so I won't be able to get to
            this until coming home (unless I get a reprieve tonight).

            > Earlier last season, a Portland fan told me the reason Jermaine
            > O'Neal improved this year was that he played most of his games in
            the
            > East. So I checked, and Jermaine had actually done better against
            > the West (ppg, rpg, fg%). It is not to be assumed.

            I haven't looked at him much. I'd assume that he "improved"
            because he got more PT. O'Neal is a pretty good defender on a team
            that has lost that defendin' feelin'. Offensively, he ain't much yet.
            I think he's still only 23 or 24, so he's got time to improve.

            DeanO
          • Mike Goodman
            ... I did some calculations to see whether Brand does as ... Alright, I broke down Elton s performance against 4 groups: good Eastern teams (.500+ over the
            Message 5 of 5 , Jul 6, 2001
              --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
              I did some calculations to see whether Brand does as
              > well against the West as against the East. Here is what I found:
              >
              > Min Sc.Poss Poss Floor% Ortg PtsProd DRtg
              > West 37.3 478 985 0.485 97.4 960 103.7
              > East 38.5 1005 1957 0.514 103.7 2029 101.5
              > Total 38.1 1483 2942 0.504 101.6 2989 102.2
              >
              Alright, I broke down Elton's performance against 4 groups: good
              Eastern teams (.500+ over the last 2 years), bad East teams
              (under .500 ...), good West teams and bad West teams.
              I am calling these groups E1 (good east), E2 (bad east), etc.
              Standardized numbers:

              Pct Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk Total
              E1 .517 19.7 10.2 2.7 3.0 .9 2.6 1.6 34.1
              E2 .535 22.1 11.7 2.9 3.0 .8 3.0 1.7 38.2
              W1 .496 18.9 9.7 2.9 3.6 1.0 2.8 1.4 32.7
              W2 .496 18.7 10.7 2.2 3.4 .9 2.9 1.6 32.7

              Group W1 consists of Sac, Por, Phe, LAL, SA, Uta, Min, Dal
              Group W2 is made up of Van, Den, GS, LAC, Hou, Sea
              Brand did equally well against both Western groups, according to
              my reckoning; or equally badly, I guess. I have to concur, the
              prospect is likely Brand's numbers will drop, based on this data.
              However, I still think there is a likelihood we will see a renewed
              interest in the game, given his new surroundings. If the Clips are
              more uptempo, he may see his scoring actually increase. Sometimes a
              good offensive rebounder flourishes in an offense that runs.
              Remember, Elton Brand has played with no creative offensive
              players in 2 years in Chicago. Zilch. Nada.
              I am actually happy for Elton, and sad for the Bulls and the East.
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