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Re: [APBR_analysis] Reference for TENDEX, Pts Created, etc.

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  • bchaikin@aol.com
    dean - thanks for the positive writeup... all the questions you asked about the B-BALL software concerning examining player strategies is exactly how i used
    Message 1 of 2 , Feb 14, 2001
      dean - thanks for the positive writeup...

      all the questions you asked about the B-BALL software concerning examining
      player strategies is exactly how i used the software when i consulted with
      the nets/heat in the mid 1990s. what players to play together, who to play
      against certain teams, who to sub when a certain player is out hurt, who to
      trade for, what free agents to sign, etc. the basic task was to plug the
      players into a team's lineup and let the computer play the games - the more
      games played the more certain the result. if the software is updated during
      the season (say at least once a week, every 3-4 or so games), the results are
      quite accurate..

      the possession factor (poss fact), or "touches per minute" number, is
      calculated by how often a player shot, passed, got fouled, or turned the ball
      over per minute that he played. think about it - once you stop your dribble
      you have to do one of the 4 (except for some rare exceptions - double fouls,
      technicals, flagrants, etc) - and divide that total by a player's minutes
      played and you get his poss fact. the key, of course, is determining how
      often players pass and that is based on me counting passes in over 1000 nba
      games (over a three year time span, the 88-89, 89-90, and 90-91 seasons -
      along with counting lots of other stuff like team and player possessions, off
      the ball fouls, you name it ). i've spot checked those numbers over the past
      decade frequently in "test" games, and while the total team possessions per
      game have steadily decreased all thru this decade the average passes per team
      possession haven't...

      actually the software is indeed public enough to examine (i welcome
      comments/criticisms), although i haven't updated it since the 97-98 season as
      i haven't had a gig with an nba team since then and other projects (the
      databases at www.bballsports.com) have taken precedence. its currently in
      hibernation waiting for an opportunity to awaken - hopefully soon. a free
      copy of the software with all of the teams from three seasons from the late
      1980s can be downloaded by anyone from "members.aol.com/bchaikin" and a
      version with any seasons from 77-78 to 97-98 can be purchased thru me ($30
      for three seasons, $10 per each additional season, $100 for all 21 seasons)...

      as for trusting the "method" of the software, i personally do not have to do
      the simulations - anyone can use the free demo mentioned above (you can't
      beat free) for evaluation purposes, or purchase some seasons more recent from
      me. i think you'd be pleasantly surprised by the results. i'm not sure what
      stochastic simulations are (i do remember stoichiometry in chemical reactions
      from my college chemistry), but i will tell you that you'll never see the
      same box score twice in hundreds of thousands of simulated games...

      bob chaikin
      bchaikin@...
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