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Re: Nets trades: Why (again)?

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... Not being an NBA Insider, but knowing a few people, I can say that the league is pretty split on the trade. Statistically, fans are definitely split, as
    Message 1 of 11 , Jul 4, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., Jim Hekel <jhekel@y...> wrote:
      > You're entitled to your opinion, but I think most NBA
      > insiders are scratching their head on this one. If the
      > Suns were so intent on trading the best point guard in
      > the game, you would think they could get more than
      > Marbury. This deal only makes sense if Phoenix also
      > gets Van Horn or Kenyon Martin, or better yet, both.
      > Marbury is a good example of a guy who's box score
      > looks great, but it doesn't give a full picture of his
      > value, or lack of the same. That's my opinion. Jim
      > Hekel, Rowley, Iowa.

      Not being an NBA Insider, but knowing a few people, I can say that
      the league is pretty split on the trade. Statistically, fans are
      definitely split, as I've seen polls on websites with a lot 51-49%
      votes. That implies that the Suns could not have gotten more for
      Kidd.

      Some numbers from 2001:

      . Scor. Poss. Floor RTG Points Game-by-Game
      Player Poss. . Pct. . Prod. Win% Win Loss
      Marbury 760 1507 0.505 108.7 1639 0.552 37 30
      Kidd 711 1484 0.479 102.1 1516 0.623 48 29

      . Def Stops Def. Net Net Net
      Player Total /Min /Poss Rtg. Win% W L
      Marbury 399 0.156 0.404 107.2 0.557 7.5 6.0
      Kidd 654 0.213 0.541 95.5 0.753 11.0 3.6

      Net Pts/48M
      v1 v2
      Marbury 0.4 10.9
      Kidd 1.6 5.7

      Marbury is the better offensive player right now (not in or before
      '99). Kidd is the better defensive player. Marbury is a more
      volatile player, less predictable (hence the discrepancy between my
      two versions of Net Points per 48 minutes).

      Kidd has always had a better defensive rating than Marbury. Kidd is
      part of the reason the Suns were a very good defensive team this
      year. Other reasons were Coach Skiles and Shawn Marion. Since both
      of those guys are still there (so far), the Suns should again be
      pretty good defensively. That will make Marbury's offense much more
      valuable. I think the concern is that the Suns' offense was pretty
      weak even with Kidd -- will it get worse with Marbury trying to take
      people one-on-one?

      New Jersey does have some potential weapons for Kidd to go to, but no
      one who could really be a star. The new draftees/tradees may work
      out ok. Kidd has been known to breathe life into forwards who run
      the floor -- McDyess and Marion are good examples -- so maybe he'll
      do it with Jason Collins. Maybe he'll do it with Van Horn, but I
      have my doubts about that guy. If NJ can form a defense around Kidd,
      Van Horn, Collins, and SOMEONE (NJ is a frustrating franchise), they
      can get up to 30-35 wins next year. As much as I like Byron Scott,
      I'm not convinced that he can form that good D.

      I look at the trade as pretty close to a wash. My initial reaction
      was that the Nets won out slightly. If I have to give an edge now,
      though, I'd give it to Phoenix.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
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