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The possession study

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  • Dean Oliver <deano@rawbw.com>
    We asked the question a few weeks ago: What will be the pace in a game between two teams, given their average paces during the season? I was thinking about
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 17, 2003
      We asked the question a few weeks ago:

      What will be the pace in a game between two teams, given their
      average paces during the season?

      I was thinking about this study and realizing that a statistical
      study may not come out with a satisfying answer. There are
      mechanistic effects that people are thinking about -- coaches who
      want to slow the pace, coaches who want to quicken the pace. We've
      wondered for instance whether the Bulls of the late '90's could slow
      down the Lakers of the early '80's. The problem is the
      word "could". The statistics will be unlikely to give a perfect
      answer to this. They'll show an average pace between the two, but
      with a standard deviation that incorporates both slow and fast
      paces. How are we to interpret this? It doesn't mean that the Bulls
      couldn't slow down the Lakers. It doesn't mean that the Lakers
      couldn't keep the pace up.

      So, even before constructing the study, I'm wondering how to
      interpret results. Are there any better ways to construct this
      study? One thing to do is to look at playoffs where the pace is
      definitely slowed and perhaps find out how much, implying that the
      increased competition there shows what competition (strategy) will
      allow coaches to do.

      DeanO
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