Re: Dilution, balance, and Bob-bashing
- --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
> That's along the lines of how I'd do it, although probably I'd use
> ratios instead of differences (5% more possessions, e.g. rather than
> 4 possesions). However Harlanzo's point about possible asymmetries
> is a valid one: slow down teams might be able to slow down their
> opponents more successfully than running teams can speed up their
> opponents. There's also the general slowdown that we see in the
> playoffs -- does this carry over into the regular season? When top
> teams meet, do they tend to play at a slower pace? There's the
> aspect also; most coaches instinctively realize that inferior teamsgame.
> want a slower-paced game while superior teams want a fast-paced
> DeanO had an article about this on his website. Anyway, the outcomesomewhere
> is not necessarily just "fast meets slow and the outcome is
> in between". The Bill James formula works great for zero-sum gamework
> situations, such as when the batter wants to hit the ball and the
> pitcher wants to stop him. Or when one basketball team wants to
> score and the other team wants to stop them. I don't know if it'd
> as well in the case of something like game pace, which is notsomething
> that the two teams will necessarily be contesting as heavily, orcare
> as much about. But it's my off-the-cuff answer.Fortunately, we can actually just do the empirical study and _get_
the answer. I just don't have time for a little while. If it
weren't so esoteric, I'm sure JohnH could do it for an article on his
I'll try to get to it in the near future...
> I particularly enjoyed Rosen's article on the Sonics where hewatched
> one game (one of the worst of the year, for what it's worth) andPut me firmly in the "pompous windbag" camp. The best thing about the
> acted like he knew something about the team. Apparently, Desmond
> Mason can't make a jumper because he had one bad night.
Mason comment, for instance, was that Rosen said the reason Mason
can't make a jumper was his "low release point", which was hilarious
on several levels:
1) Apparently he's never watched Steve Kerr. Or Andrew Toney. Or
Bryce Drew. Or about a hundred other guys who shoot from under their
chin but make everything.
2) Mason's release point isn't low, especially given that he's about
20 feet off the ground when he shoots it.
3) Mason's problem isn't the release point, it's the lack of arc on