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Re: Dilution, balance, and Bob-bashing

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  • Dean Oliver <deano@rawbw.com>
    ... strategic ... game. ... somewhere ... work ... something ... care ... Fortunately, we can actually just do the empirical study and _get_ the answer. I
    Message 1 of 35 , Jan 2, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
      wrote:
      > ***
      > That's along the lines of how I'd do it, although probably I'd use
      > ratios instead of differences (5% more possessions, e.g. rather than
      > 4 possesions). However Harlanzo's point about possible asymmetries
      > is a valid one: slow down teams might be able to slow down their
      > opponents more successfully than running teams can speed up their
      > opponents. There's also the general slowdown that we see in the
      > playoffs -- does this carry over into the regular season? When top
      > teams meet, do they tend to play at a slower pace? There's the
      strategic
      > aspect also; most coaches instinctively realize that inferior teams
      > want a slower-paced game while superior teams want a fast-paced
      game.
      > DeanO had an article about this on his website. Anyway, the outcome
      > is not necessarily just "fast meets slow and the outcome is
      somewhere
      > in between". The Bill James formula works great for zero-sum game
      > situations, such as when the batter wants to hit the ball and the
      > pitcher wants to stop him. Or when one basketball team wants to
      > score and the other team wants to stop them. I don't know if it'd
      work
      > as well in the case of something like game pace, which is not
      something
      > that the two teams will necessarily be contesting as heavily, or
      care
      > as much about. But it's my off-the-cuff answer.

      Fortunately, we can actually just do the empirical study and _get_
      the answer. I just don't have time for a little while. If it
      weren't so esoteric, I'm sure JohnH could do it for an article on his
      site.

      I'll try to get to it in the near future...

      DeanO
    • John Hollinger <alleyoop2@yahoo.com>
      ... watched ... Put me firmly in the pompous windbag camp. The best thing about the Mason comment, for instance, was that Rosen said the reason Mason can t
      Message 35 of 35 , Jan 11, 2003
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        > I particularly enjoyed Rosen's article on the Sonics where he
        watched
        > one game (one of the worst of the year, for what it's worth) and
        > acted like he knew something about the team. Apparently, Desmond
        > Mason can't make a jumper because he had one bad night.

        Put me firmly in the "pompous windbag" camp. The best thing about the
        Mason comment, for instance, was that Rosen said the reason Mason
        can't make a jumper was his "low release point", which was hilarious
        on several levels:

        1) Apparently he's never watched Steve Kerr. Or Andrew Toney. Or
        Bryce Drew. Or about a hundred other guys who shoot from under their
        chin but make everything.

        2) Mason's release point isn't low, especially given that he's about
        20 feet off the ground when he shoots it.

        3) Mason's problem isn't the release point, it's the lack of arc on
        his shot.
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