RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dilution, balance, and Bob-bashing
- -----Original Message-----
From: Dean Oliver <deano@...> [mailto:deano@...]
Sent: Tuesday, December 31, 2002 3:00 PM
Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dilution, balance, and Bob-bashing
--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, bchaikin@a... wrote:
> now we're talking - something that is quantifiable - game pace.
> the pace of a game be between two teams, and not even cross-
> even between seasons, but just between two teams in the same
> modelled it, and with accuracy. but before i explain how it works -
> ain't difficult - i'd like to hear how others would do it...
The standard approach is the Stratomatic approach -- If Team A
averages 4 possessions over the league average and Team B averages 2
possessions over the league average, then Team A vs Team B will on
average be 6 possessions over the league average. This is roughly
comparable (on a first order differential basis) to the Adams-James
rule for evaluating how well a 0.300 hitter will do against a pitcher
who allows opponents to hit 0.300 in a league that averages 0.260.
Mechanistically, I've never been sure that this is right. I'd be
curious if data exists to support this or whatever Bob says. I guess
I have the data, but never looked at it that way.
That's along the lines of how I'd do it, although probably I'd use
ratios instead of differences (5% more possessions, e.g. rather than
4 possesions). However Harlanzo's point about possible asymmetries
is a valid one: slow down teams might be able to slow down their
opponents more successfully than running teams can speed up their
opponents. There's also the general slowdown that we see in the
playoffs -- does this carry over into the regular season? When top
teams meet, do they tend to play at a slower pace? There's the strategic
aspect also; most coaches instinctively realize that inferior teams
want a slower-paced game while superior teams want a fast-paced game.
DeanO had an article about this on his website. Anyway, the outcome
is not necessarily just "fast meets slow and the outcome is somewhere
in between". The Bill James formula works great for zero-sum game
situations, such as when the batter wants to hit the ball and the
pitcher wants to stop him. Or when one basketball team wants to
score and the other team wants to stop them. I don't know if it'd work
as well in the case of something like game pace, which is not something
that the two teams will necessarily be contesting as heavily, or care
as much about. But it's my off-the-cuff answer.
> I particularly enjoyed Rosen's article on the Sonics where hewatched
> one game (one of the worst of the year, for what it's worth) andPut me firmly in the "pompous windbag" camp. The best thing about the
> acted like he knew something about the team. Apparently, Desmond
> Mason can't make a jumper because he had one bad night.
Mason comment, for instance, was that Rosen said the reason Mason
can't make a jumper was his "low release point", which was hilarious
on several levels:
1) Apparently he's never watched Steve Kerr. Or Andrew Toney. Or
Bryce Drew. Or about a hundred other guys who shoot from under their
chin but make everything.
2) Mason's release point isn't low, especially given that he's about
20 feet off the ground when he shoots it.
3) Mason's problem isn't the release point, it's the lack of arc on