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Re: Dilution, balance, and Bob-bashing

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  • Mike G <msg_53@hotmail.com>
    ... Bob was asking for it. ... sports ... Why not? ... per ... Turnovers (NBA) are only known from 1978 on, and they were measured as being very high, by
    Message 1 of 35 , Jan 1, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver <deano@r...>"
      <deano@r...> wrote:
      >
      >
      > I guess 'tis the season to beat up on BobC. A lot of it happened
      > while I was gone, that's for sure....

      Bob was asking for it.

      > ...Talent dilution and competitive balance
      >
      > These are two of the hardest topics around and hot topics in
      sports
      > economics right now. We aren't going to solve them here....

      Why not?


      >...(The one statistical measure of
      > talent that works decently – not perfectly – is turnovers
      per
      > possession, I think....

      Turnovers (NBA) are only known from 1978 on, and they were measured
      as being very high, by modern standards. Ironically, the post-
      merger years are often held as the most talent-rich period in NBA
      history, at least up to that time.


      >... I believe MikeG had some stat a long time ago
      > showing how much net gain in minutes played per player there was,
      > which was a weird stat (one I'm not sure about), but certainly
      shows
      > expansion years and possibly other things. I think
      > turnovers/possession would show expansion years, too.

      Message 1578 (way back on Dec. 17) recaps this study.

      I would have thought Minutes Played would be the least-weird stat
      one could find. (Everyone knows the talent-rich teams have players
      that would be getting more minutes on an average team.)

      The questions I have about the significance of Minutes are:

      1) What's the mathematical relationship between an individual's
      productivity, and his minutes?

      2) How can a decades-long (expansion years aside) trend toward
      diminishing minutes be interpreted?

      What kind of correlation is there between TO/Poss and W/L record?
    • John Hollinger <alleyoop2@yahoo.com>
      ... watched ... Put me firmly in the pompous windbag camp. The best thing about the Mason comment, for instance, was that Rosen said the reason Mason can t
      Message 35 of 35 , Jan 11, 2003
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        > I particularly enjoyed Rosen's article on the Sonics where he
        watched
        > one game (one of the worst of the year, for what it's worth) and
        > acted like he knew something about the team. Apparently, Desmond
        > Mason can't make a jumper because he had one bad night.

        Put me firmly in the "pompous windbag" camp. The best thing about the
        Mason comment, for instance, was that Rosen said the reason Mason
        can't make a jumper was his "low release point", which was hilarious
        on several levels:

        1) Apparently he's never watched Steve Kerr. Or Andrew Toney. Or
        Bryce Drew. Or about a hundred other guys who shoot from under their
        chin but make everything.

        2) Mason's release point isn't low, especially given that he's about
        20 feet off the ground when he shoots it.

        3) Mason's problem isn't the release point, it's the lack of arc on
        his shot.
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