Re: Dilution, balance, and Bob-bashing
- --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver <deano@r...>"
>Bob was asking for it.
> I guess 'tis the season to beat up on BobC. A lot of it happened
> while I was gone, that's for sure....
> ...Talent dilution and competitive balancesports
> These are two of the hardest topics around and hot topics in
> economics right now. We aren't going to solve them here....Why not?
>...(The one statistical measure ofper
> talent that works decently not perfectly is turnovers
> possession, I think....Turnovers (NBA) are only known from 1978 on, and they were measured
as being very high, by modern standards. Ironically, the post-
merger years are often held as the most talent-rich period in NBA
history, at least up to that time.
>... I believe MikeG had some stat a long time agoshows
> showing how much net gain in minutes played per player there was,
> which was a weird stat (one I'm not sure about), but certainly
> expansion years and possibly other things. I thinkMessage 1578 (way back on Dec. 17) recaps this study.
> turnovers/possession would show expansion years, too.
I would have thought Minutes Played would be the least-weird stat
one could find. (Everyone knows the talent-rich teams have players
that would be getting more minutes on an average team.)
The questions I have about the significance of Minutes are:
1) What's the mathematical relationship between an individual's
productivity, and his minutes?
2) How can a decades-long (expansion years aside) trend toward
diminishing minutes be interpreted?
What kind of correlation is there between TO/Poss and W/L record?
> I particularly enjoyed Rosen's article on the Sonics where hewatched
> one game (one of the worst of the year, for what it's worth) andPut me firmly in the "pompous windbag" camp. The best thing about the
> acted like he knew something about the team. Apparently, Desmond
> Mason can't make a jumper because he had one bad night.
Mason comment, for instance, was that Rosen said the reason Mason
can't make a jumper was his "low release point", which was hilarious
on several levels:
1) Apparently he's never watched Steve Kerr. Or Andrew Toney. Or
Bryce Drew. Or about a hundred other guys who shoot from under their
chin but make everything.
2) Mason's release point isn't low, especially given that he's about
20 feet off the ground when he shoots it.
3) Mason's problem isn't the release point, it's the lack of arc on