Re: Dilution, balance, and Bob-bashing
- --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver <deano@r...>"
> The standard approach is the Stratomatic approach -- If Team A2
> averages 4 possessions over the league average and Team B averages
> possessions over the league average, then Team A vs Team B will onpitcher
> average be 6 possessions over the league average. This is roughly
> comparable (on a first order differential basis) to the Adams-James
> rule for evaluating how well a 0.300 hitter will do against a
> who allows opponents to hit 0.300 in a league that averages 0.260.guess
> Mechanistically, I've never been sure that this is right. I'd be
> curious if data exists to support this or whatever Bob says. I
> I have the data, but never looked at it that way.Let me backtrack a little here. This is not necessarily how I'd "do
it", as Bob says, or "simulate it". It depends on what the goal of
the simulation was for. If I was trying to do a simple simulation of
how many points teams would score, this is how I'd "do it". If I was
trying to simulate the conditions under which Ron Harper could play
with Michael Jordan and score 20 ppg, I'd only use this as a soft
constraint on the results and focus on other inter-relational
aspects. It might be a hard constraint, depending on the mechanism
of simulation. I have different simulations for different studies.
I haven't exactly designed a simulation for pure "fun" of simulating
> I particularly enjoyed Rosen's article on the Sonics where hewatched
> one game (one of the worst of the year, for what it's worth) andPut me firmly in the "pompous windbag" camp. The best thing about the
> acted like he knew something about the team. Apparently, Desmond
> Mason can't make a jumper because he had one bad night.
Mason comment, for instance, was that Rosen said the reason Mason
can't make a jumper was his "low release point", which was hilarious
on several levels:
1) Apparently he's never watched Steve Kerr. Or Andrew Toney. Or
Bryce Drew. Or about a hundred other guys who shoot from under their
chin but make everything.
2) Mason's release point isn't low, especially given that he's about
20 feet off the ground when he shoots it.
3) Mason's problem isn't the release point, it's the lack of arc on