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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Most uncertain value?

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  • Gary Collard
    ... Couldn t this kind of thing be answered with PBP data? Checking, over a large sample, what is the expectation on possessions after on offensive rebound as
    Message 1 of 43 , Nov 22, 2002
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      Michael Tamada wrote:
      >
      > I have an argument which is convincing (to me anyway) which says that
      > offensive rebounds are equally valuable as defensive rebounds. And
      > another equally convincing one which says that they are about twice as
      > valuable as defensive rebounds.

      Couldn't this kind of thing be answered with PBP data? Checking, over a
      large sample, what is the expectation on possessions after on offensive
      rebound as opposed to a defensive rebound?

      Not that such data is readily available, I freely admit that I am spoiled
      by the work of Retrosheet in baseball and have no idea what is out there
      for the NBA.

      --
      Gary Collard
      SABR-L Moderator
      collardg@...

      "How can they call the internet connection dying on me no big deal?
      What if there's an emergency and I need to e-mail 9-1-1?"
      -- Jennifer Taylor
    • Daniel Dickey
      I do not believe just because a player played 200 minutes because he is definitely better than the other options for that 200 minutes. Coaches do not always
      Message 43 of 43 , Nov 26, 2002
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          I do not believe just because a player played 200 minutes because he is definitely better than the other options for that 200 minutes.  Coaches do not always play the best players.  Coaches still play Eric Montross - and I bet you could find 1000 players not in the NBA who could whoop him one on one.  I know he's big - who cares.  Should EVERY player have a positive replacement player level - because obviously he's better than his replacements (because he's playing)?  I don't think so.
         
        Pippen played alot more minutes than Patterson for the Blazers - but I think Patterson is probably now the better player.  The coach HAS to play Scottie because he is paid more and he'll whine if he doesn't play.  This happens ALOT in the NBA.  Plus the worst 2 players on each team are not really any better than the best players in the lesser pro leagues - they just lucked into guaranteed contracts.
         
        NBA
        ----- Original Message -----
        Sent: Tuesday, November 26, 2002 12:52 PM
        Subject: RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Most uncertain value?

        It's a question of what (or who) is the alternative player, the replacement player, for the player in question.  And that replacement player can never be a better player than the player in question, because if there was a better player available, the team would be playing him and not giving any minutes to the player in question.  So the player in question, whether he is playing 200 minutes or 3200 minutes, must be a BETTER player than anyone else who could've filled up those 200 or 3200 minutes.


        --MKT 

             
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