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OK, player rankings 2001

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  • Dean Oliver
    I really don t use player rankings for anything other than the most coarse look at players out there. When I do struggle with the numbers out there, I
    Message 1 of 5 , Jun 9, 2001
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      I really don't use player rankings for anything other than the most coarse
      look at players out there. When I do struggle with the numbers out there,
      I invariably differ from all you guys. What I've been looking for is
      some formula that at least pretty well approximates what I think so that I
      don't have to think so hard. I've come close with the list below. What
      you will see are players ranked by "Net Pts Per 48 minutes", which is a
      combination of 2 methods of estimating it (as mentioned in the 3rd bullet
      of

      http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/message/103)

      The numbers do work out well, in that they sum up to team totals pretty
      decently. Before I present them, I will first say that I would NEVER make
      a personnel decision on these numbers. If all you know about your team
      and players is 1 number, you are bound to lose.

      FullName Team AvgNetPts Comment
      Shaquill O'Neal lal 9.32 10.9 in 2000
      Allen Iverson phi 8.99
      Chris Webber sac 7.54
      Jer Stackhouse det 7.50 Surprisingly high, but he did have
      his best year with the Pistons and the
      team performed much better than I
      expected. Age 26.5
      Kobe Bryant lal 7.44 Would Kobe have made DET better than
      Stackhouse did? I think so.
      Karl Malone uta 7.39 9.0 in 2000
      Vince Carter tor 7.37
      Tracy McGrady orl 7.19 2.8 in 2000.
      Tim Duncan san 6.65 I've never been as high on Duncan as
      everyone else. 7.5 in 2000. Above KG.
      Paul Pierce bos 6.16 Very impressive year. Still young, 24.
      Stephon Marbury njn 5.70 Embarrassing to have him top PG.
      David Robinson san 5.48
      Dirk Nowitzki dal 5.47 One of my young favorites.
      Ray Allen mil 5.41 Age 26
      Kevin Garnett min 5.23 Older than Pierce!!!
      Gary Payton sea 5.01 Declining. His worst year.
      Steve Francis hou 4.69 Another of my young favorites.
      John Stockton uta 4.25 Still up here.
      Sam Cassell mil 3.88
      Glenn Robinson mil 3.79
      Antoine Walker bos 3.75
      Antonio McDyess den 3.68
      Jason Kidd pho 3.61
      Shawn Marion pho 3.58
      Rasheed Wallace por 3.58 So much talent, so little self-control.
      Could be up around 6, I think. Age 27.
      Eddie Jones mia 3.54
      Steve Nash dal 3.37
      Jamal Mashburn cha 3.35
      Andre Miller cle 3.20
      Pred Stojakovic sac 3.06 Outstanding prospect. Age 24.
      Derek Anderson san 2.93
      Allan Houston nyk 2.91 Weird stat year. When he was on, he was
      on. He had a lot of off nights, though.
      Jalen Rose ind 2.91 I still prefer Reggie.
      Tim Hardaway mia 2.88
      Corey Maggette lac 2.77 Uh, fluke of the numbers here. Just
      passed minimum possessions to make my
      list. But actually promising.
      Donyell Marshall uta 2.68
      Antawn Jamison gsw 2.59
      Terrell Brandon min 2.59
      Michael Finley dal 2.55 Behind Nash and Nowitzki by my count.
      Bonzi Wells por 2.55
      Brian Grant mia 2.54
      Lamar Odom lac 2.51 Age 22.
      Sha Abdur-Rahim van 2.49 Age 24.5
      Cuttino Mobley hou 2.47
      Darre Armstrong orl 2.44
      Jason Terry atl 2.44 Also older than Pierce.
      Marcus Camby nyk 2.42
      Elton Brand chi 2.39 Oh god, may be best PF in east.
      Reggie Miller ind 2.30
      Hakeem Olajuwon hou 2.29
      Ruben Patterson sea 2.18
      Nick Van Exel den 2.16
      Anthony Mason mia 2.07
      Elden Campbell cha 1.86
      Latrel Sprewell nyk 1.83 Last girlfriend and I disagreed
      completely on him. She loved him and I
      simply couldn't deal with that.
      Cliff Robinson pho 1.82
      Vlade Divac sac 1.79
      David Wesley cha 1.70
      Kurt Thomas nyk 1.67
      Steve Smith por 1.65
      Damo Stoudamire por 1.57
      Rodney Rogers pho 1.46
      Tim Thomas mil 1.37
      Travis Best ind 1.36
      Baron Davis cha 1.30
      Richar Hamilton was 1.17
      Antonio Daniels san 1.07
      Jermaine O'Neal ind 0.98
      Chris Gatling cle 0.95
      Glen Rice nyk 0.82
      Austin Croshere ind 0.79
      Joe Smith det 0.78
      Rashard Lewis sea 0.70 Very good upside. Age 22.
      Aaron McKie phi 0.67
      Mike Bibby van 0.62
      Antonio Davis tor 0.58
      Keith Van Horn njn 0.52
      Lindsey Hunter mil 0.50
      Tony Delk pho 0.44
      Raef Lafrentz den 0.43
      LaPhonso Ellis min 0.42
      Lorenzen Wright atl 0.40
      Juwan Howard was 0.36 1.5 with Dallas.
      Maurice Taylor hou 0.23
      Jeff McInnis lac 0.19
      Chaunce Billups min 0.09
      Scottie Pippen por 0.08 1.4 in 2000
      Bryon Russell uta 0.07 Fell off a lot as year went by.
      Doug Christie sac 0.00
      Wal Szczerbiak min -0.02
      Eric Piatkowski lac -0.09
      Morris Peterson tor -0.23
      Lamond Murray cle -0.34
      Johnny Newman njn -0.34
      Cl Weatherspoon cle -0.41
      Alvin Williams tor -0.45 Good fit with Carter. Already age 27.
      Mike Miller orl -0.47 Pretty weak ROY. Brand and Francis at 3.4
      and 3.0 last year, resp.
      Ron Mercer chi -0.51
      Vin Baker sea -0.55
      Aaron Williams njn -0.58
      Chucky Atkins det -0.61
      Alan Henderson atl -0.64
      Rick Fox lal -0.73
      Voshon Lenard den -0.80
      Larry Hughes gsw -0.83
      Micha Dickerson van -1.00 Charles Barkley picked him wrong
      as the next star.
      Larry Johnson nyk -1.13
      Ron Artest chi -1.16
      Darius Miles lac -1.20 Michael Jordan's pick for best rookie.
      Very promising numbers.
      Dale Davis por -1.22
      Jason Williams sac -1.22 -1.5 in 2000
      George McCloud den -1.26
      Tyrone Hill phi -1.33
      Anthony Peeler min -1.39
      Mookie Blaylock gsw -1.51
      Patrick Ewing sea -1.59 1.9 in 2000
      Kenyon Martin njn -1.72
      Howard Eisley dal -1.81 Got hyped in Utah.
      Horace Grant lal -1.81 Compliments Shaq well, but not useful most
      places
      P.J. Brown cha -1.90
      Vital Potapenko bos -1.92
      George Lynch phi -1.99
      Charles Outlaw orl -2.06
      Lucious Harris njn -2.19
      Shando Anderson hou -2.22
      Marcus Fizer chi -2.24
      Bryant Stith bos -2.26
      John Starks uta -2.40
      James Posey den -2.46
      Charles Oakley tor -2.64
      John Amaechi orl -2.69 0.5 in 2000. Oops on that contract.
      Mich Olowokandi lac -3.12
      Ben Wallace det -3.26


      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
      www.tsoft.com/~deano/index.html
      deano@...
    • Mike Goodman
      ... DEAN S LIST Mike s List ... Shaquill O Neal lal 9.32 1 49.1 ... Stephon Marbury njn 5.70 15 36.4 David Robinson san 5.48 13 36.9 ... Glenn
      Message 2 of 5 , Jun 9, 2001
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., Dean Oliver <deano@t...> wrote:
        >
        DEAN'S LIST Mike's List

        > FullName Team AvgNetPts Rk Rating
        Shaquill O'Neal lal 9.32 1 49.1
        > Allen Iverson phi 8.99 8 39.8
        > Chris Webber sac 7.54 3 42.3
        >Jer Stackhouse det 7.50 14 36.7
        > Kobe Bryant lal 7.44 9 39.5
        > Karl Malone uta 7.39 2 43.0
        > Vince Carter tor 7.37 6 40.0
        > Tracy McGrady orl 7.19 7 40.0
        > Tim Duncan san 6.65 4 42.2
        > Paul Pierce bos 6.16 11 37.6
        Stephon Marbury njn 5.70 15 36.4
        David Robinson san 5.48 13 36.9
        > Dirk Nowitzki dal 5.47 10 37.9
        > Ray Allen mil 5.41 16 36.3
        > Kevin Garnett min 5.23 5 40.9
        > Gary Payton sea 5.01 17 36.0
        > Steve Francis hou 4.69 21 35.6
        > John Stockton uta 4.25 23 35.0
        > Sam Cassell mil 3.88 31 32.9
        Glenn Robinson mil 3.79 27 33.8
        Antoine Walker bos 3.75 20 35.7
        Antonio McDyess den 3.68 12 37.1
        > Jason Kidd pho 3.61 22 35.3
        > Shawn Marion pho 3.58 18 35.8
        Rasheed Wallace por 3.58 19 35.7
        > Eddie Jones mia 3.54 35 31.6
        > Steve Nash dal 3.37 34 31.7
        Jamal Mashburn cha 3.35 26 33.8
        > Andre Miller cle 3.20 30 33.0
        Pred Stojakovic sac 3.06 46 30.3
        Derek Anderson san 2.93 56 28.7
        > Allan Houston nyk 2.91 57 28.7
        > Jalen Rose ind 2.91 33 32.4
        > Tim Hardaway mia 2.88 49 30.0
        Corey Maggette lac 2.77 85 26.1
        Donyell Marshalluta 2.68 32 32.6
        Antawn Jamison gsw 2.59 39 31.1
        Terrell Brandon min 2.59 37 31.5
        >Michael Finley dal 2.55 48 30.1
        > Bonzi Wells por 2.55 44 30.4
        > Brian Grant mia 2.54 38 31.2
        > Lamar Odom lac 2.51 29 33.4
        Sha Abdur-Rahim van 2.49 28 33.4
        Cuttino Mobley hou 2.47 61 28.5
        Darre Armstrong orl 2.44 45 30.4
        > Jason Terry atl 2.44 55 29.2
        > Marcus Camby nyk 2.42 25 34.3
        > Elton Brand chi 2.39 24 34.9
        > Reggie Miller ind 2.30 60 28.5
        Hakeem Olajuwon hou 2.29 40 30.9
        Ruben Patterson sea 2.18 69 27.9
        Nick Van Exel den 2.16 41 30.9
        > Anthony Mason mia 2.07 36 31.5
        Elden Campbell cha 1.86 50 29.9
        Latrel Sprewell nyk 1.83 72 27.5
        Cliff Robinson pho 1.82 71 27.5
        > Vlade Divac sac 1.79 53 29.4
        > David Wesley cha 1.70 75 27.1
        > Kurt Thomas nyk 1.67 68 27.9
        > Steve Smith por 1.65 83 26.4
        Damo Stoudamire por 1.57 65 28.1
        > Rodney Rogers pho 1.46 84 26.3
        > Tim Thomas mil 1.37 87 25.7
        > Travis Best ind 1.36 74 27.3
        > Baron Davis cha 1.30 52 29.6
        Richar Hamilton was 1.17 89 25.7
        Antonio Daniels san 1.07 107 24.5
        Jermaine O'Neal ind 0.98 43 30.6
        Chris Gatling cle 0.95 91 25.6
        > Glen Rice nyk 0.82 ??
        Austin Croshere ind 0.79 ?
        > Joe Smith det 0.78 100 25.1
        > Rashard Lewis sea 0.70 66 28.0
        > Aaron McKie phi 0.67 78 26.6
        > Mike Bibby van 0.62 54 29.4
        > Antonio Davis tor 0.58 59 28.6
        Keith Van Horn njn 0.52 73 27.5
        Lindsey Hunter mil 0.50 ?
        > Tony Delk pho 0.44 ?
        > Raef Lafrentz den 0.43 51 29.7
        LaPhonso Ellis min 0.42 88 25.7
        Lorenzen Wright atl 0.40 77 26.8
        Juwan Howard was 0.36 64 28.3
        Maurice Taylor hou 0.23 98 25.3
        > Jeff McInnis lac 0.19 105 24.8
        Chaunce Billups min 0.09 ?
        Scottie Pippen por 0.08 76 26.9
        Bryon Russell uta 0.07 109 24.3
        > Doug Christie sac 0.00 ?
        Wal Szczerbiak min -0.02 80 26.5
        Eric Piatkowski lac -0.09 ?
        Morris Peterson tor -0.23 ?
        Lamond Murray cle -0.34 ?
        > Johnny Newman njn -0.34 ?
        Cl Weatherspoon cle -0.41 67 27.9
        Alvin Williams tor -0.45 ?
        >Mike Miller orl -0.47 ?
        > Ron Mercer chi -0.51 92 25.5
        > Vin Baker sea -0.55 ?
        Aaron Williams njn -0.58 95 25.3
        > Chucky Atkins det -0.61 ?
        Alan Henderson atl -0.64 ?
        > Rick Fox lal -0.73 ?
        > Voshon Lenard den -0.80 ?
        > Larry Hughes gsw -0.83 99 25.1

        Manipulating this chart, I may have erased some names; if not,
        where is Mutombo? I have him at #42.
        Others I don't see:
        Player My Rank
        Sabonis 47
        Ratliff 56
        Nazr Mohammed 62
        C. Williamson 63
        Kukoc 70
        S. Bradley 79
        Brad Miller 81
        Laettner 82
        Marc Jackson 86
      • Dean Oliver
        ... All were eliminated by my minimum criterion of 300 scoring possessions. Some of them because they had fewer than this because of trades. After combining
        Message 3 of 5 , Jun 9, 2001
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Mike Goodman" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
          > Manipulating this chart, I may have erased some names; if not,
          > where is Mutombo? I have him at #42.
          > Others I don't see:
          > Player My Rank
          > Sabonis 47
          > Ratliff 56
          > Nazr Mohammed 62
          > C. Williamson 63
          > Kukoc 70
          > S. Bradley 79
          > Brad Miller 81
          > Laettner 82
          > Marc Jackson 86

          All were eliminated by my minimum criterion of 300 scoring
          possessions. Some of them because they had fewer than this because
          of trades. After combining teams, Kukoc, Laettner, and Mutombo all
          make the 300 sc. poss minimum. Here are the #'s

          FullName NetPts/48
          Shawn Bradley -1.00
          Marc Jackson -0.16
          Toni Kukoc 2.17
          Chris Laettner 1.19
          Brad Miller -0.22
          Nazr Mohammed 2.29
          Dikembe Mutombo -0.52
          Theo Ratliff 0.22
          Arvydas Sabonis 2.46
          C. Williamson 0.41

          Mutombo's number is (much) lower than I'd put it. That's the curse
          of defense right now. Mutombo is clearly more valuable than this.
          Same with Ratliff and Bradley. All similar defensive players with
          little to contribute offensively.

          As mentioned in that much earlier message, the 2 methods of net pts
          do very different things.

          1. First one looks at offensive and defensive ratings and uses the
          the number of _offensive_ possessions used by a player to estimate
          net points (ORtg - DRtg)*OffPoss. This one benefits efficient
          (offensive or defensive) players even if they aren't prolific.

          2. Second one takes the number of points a player produces
          (ORtg*OffPoss) and subtracts off the estimated number of points they
          would have allowed by being in the game as long as they were. This
          one more heavily benefits scorers (like Stackhouse) even if they
          aren't efficient.

          The 2nd one is what hurts the defenders on this list. They just
          don't score, so they aren't contributing offensively. They may limit
          the scores of the opponents, but this technique says they can't help
          enough to make up for their lack of offense.

          Usually averaging the 2 techniques more or less makes me happy
          enough. In Mutombo's case (and Ratliff's and Bradley's), it doesn't.
          I would note, however, that all of them have been traded at least 2
          times, suggesting that their value is questionable. Interestingly,
          Mutombo, Ratliff, and Bradley are all at 1.6-2.0 Net Pts using the
          first method. Using that method, these guys rank about even with

          Paul Pierce bos
          Charles Outlaw orl
          Hakeem Olajuwon hou
          Doug Christie sac
          Darre Armstrong orl
          Dale Davis por
          Jason Kidd pho
          Horace Grant lal
          Vlade Divac sac


          Some interesting #s:
          Atlanta was 7-26 without Mutombo, 18-31 with him. Philly was 37-19
          without Mutombo, 19-7 with him. Philly was 20-12 without Ratliff,
          36-14 with him. Philly was 18-16 without Kukoc, 38-10 with him
          (!This doesn't seem right!).

          Laettner is higher than I'd think, but I think that is just an
          anti-Dook bias.

          Sabonis fell off from 3.5 in 2000. In Net Pts method 1 (the one
          looking at efficiency), he particularly fell off.

          Again, I'd never use ratings for ANY personnel decision.

          Dean Oliver
          Journal of Basketball Studies
        • mstenby@spacestar.net
          Dean, You re obviously a very bright guy and I enjoyed reading your ratings and comments very much. Just a comment about Ben Wallace -- how can a guy that
          Message 4 of 5 , Jun 13, 2001
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            Dean,
            You're obviously a very bright guy and I enjoyed reading your ratings
            and comments very much. Just a comment about Ben Wallace -- how can a
            guy that grabbed over 1000 rebounds and also led his team in steals
            and blocks end up last on your list? I know he's a non-scorer and
            poor outside shooter (33% at the line), but he was near 50% from the
            field. Perhaps your ratings do not give enough credit for the "non-
            scoring" stats. Would be interested to hear your reply and thanks
            again for your interesting contribution.

            -Mark
          • Dean Oliver
            ... ratings ... a ... the ... I hate ratings. HATE. Passionately. Can I underline that? Wallace did an outstanding job rebounding and playing D on a team
            Message 5 of 5 , Jun 13, 2001
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              --- In APBR_analysis@y..., mstenby@s... wrote:
              > Dean,
              > You're obviously a very bright guy and I enjoyed reading your
              ratings
              > and comments very much. Just a comment about Ben Wallace -- how can
              a
              > guy that grabbed over 1000 rebounds and also led his team in steals
              > and blocks end up last on your list? I know he's a non-scorer and
              > poor outside shooter (33% at the line), but he was near 50% from
              the
              > field. Perhaps your ratings do not give enough credit for the "non-
              > scoring" stats. Would be interested to hear your reply and thanks
              > again for your interesting contribution.
              >

              I hate ratings. HATE. Passionately. Can I underline that?

              Wallace did an outstanding job rebounding and playing D on a team
              that exceeded expectations. If I'm on a team that needs rebounding,
              I definitely look for Wallace. If I'm on a team that already has 3
              scorers, I look for Wallace. If I'm on the Bulls, a team that has no
              scorers (Brand is getting there), Wallace is a liability. It is that
              last thing that is reflected in the negative #.

              In the follow-up post, I put both versions of Net Pts and you'll
              notice that Wallace was actually positive in version 1. That version
              says that Wallace's offensive rating was higher than his defensive
              rating and that, if you look only at that and the possessions he
              used, his net point contribution is positive, nicely so.

              If you look at version 2, though, you see that Wallace simply
              contributed so little offensively (606 pts created) to not make up
              for his time on the court. Version 2 compares that 606 to the
              estimated # of points he "allowed" while on the court. Wallace was
              on the court 2760 minutes. Each Piston "faced" about 0.4 possessions
              per minute (once every 2.5 minutes, Wallace was involved in a
              defensive play). On those possessions, Wallace allowed 91.3 points
              per 100 (a very good figure). But multiplying those out, I
              calculated that he allowed 1012 pts. That's a net -406 pts, IF YOU
              LOOK AT IT THIS WAY.

              So both of these are calculations of an imaginary number. In a team
              game, individual net points is theoretically difficult (if not
              impossible) to define. Both of these methods sum up to the team
              total (one better than the other - can you guess which?). They
              reflect the interplay of efficiency vs. number of scores. My first
              shot at balancing the 2 is this.

              So is Wallace bad? Yeah. He ain't great. He is a role player,
              playing the roles of rebounder/defender. Neither of those are the
              most valuable roles in the league (relative to scoring). But, one of
              my favorite questions is -- Could he be a part of a championship
              team? Yes, he could be. The Pistons need a lot more efficient
              scoring (and/or much more efficient team D) to approach a
              championship. Wallace is not going to get them there. Nor is he the
              best in the league at what he does. The numbers quantify this to a
              reasonable degree.

              As for whether the ratings give "enough credit to non-scoring stats"
              -- it's a subjective call. I would never use a rating for personnel
              decisions. If I ever figure out a good theoretical definition of
              individual net points, I'll call it an estimate, not a rating.

              Complete Detroit calculated stats below. Ben had a higher offensive
              rating than D rating in 43 of 80 games (Game-by-game Win-Loss
              record). I like that number personally. It implies the guy is doing
              his job 43/80 days, no matter how small it is. (He was 47-33 in
              2000.)


              . Scor. Poss. Floor RTG Points Game-by-Game
              Player Poss. . Pct. . Prod. Win% Wins Loss
              Stacke 1056 2222 0.475 103.5 2299 0.475 38 42
              Wil'msn 182 341 0.534 105.5 360 0.667 18 9
              Smith 405 827 0.490 99.8 825 0.435 30 39
              Atkins 438 1004 0.436 97.8 982 0.358 29 52
              Barros 203 429 0.473 105.0 450 0.517 31 29
              Wil'ms 130 261 0.497 99.9 260 0.515 17 16
              BWallac 310 631 0.492 96.1 606 0.538 43 37
              JWallac 106 241 0.441 89.7 216 0.300 12 28
              Ceballo 29 70 0.423 98.4 68 0.417 5 7
              Cleaves 230 547 0.421 85.6 468 0.244 19 59
              Curry 177 364 0.486 100.5 366 0.433 29 38
              Moore 182 358 0.508 102.2 365 0.481 38 41
              Owens 113 259 0.437 88.0 228 0.378 17 28
              Buechle 77 166 0.465 109.6 182 0.566 30 23
              Montros 58 151 0.380 75.2 114 0.225 9 31
              Cardina 16 42 0.395 76.9 32 0.143 2 12
              David 10 23 0.439 88.7 20 0.444 4 5
              TEAM 3722 7933 0.469 98.8 7841 0.428 371 496

              . Defensive Stops Def. Net Net Net
              Player Total /Min /Poss Rtg. Win% W L
              Stackhouse 573 0.178 0.443 102.3 0.547 10.0 8.3
              Williamson 170 0.213 0.530 98.8 0.746 2.4 0.8
              Joe Smith 413 0.213 0.529 98.8 0.541 4.9 4.1
              Chucky Atkins 389 0.165 0.410 103.6 0.278 3.0 7.7
              Dana Barros 184 0.171 0.425 103.0 0.577 2.1 1.5
              Jerome Williams 198 0.246 0.612 95.5 0.677 1.8 0.8
              Ben Wallace 797 0.289 0.719 91.3 0.700 7.4 3.1
              John Wallace 103 0.196 0.488 100.5 0.132 0.3 1.7
              Cedric Ceballos 33 0.201 0.500 100.0 0.431 0.3 0.3
              Mateen Cleaves 230 0.181 0.452 101.9 0.053 0.3 4.5
              Michael Curry 232 0.156 0.389 104.4 0.346 1.9 3.7
              Mikki Moore 262 0.227 0.565 97.4 0.688 2.5 1.1
              Billy Owens 171 0.216 0.537 98.5 0.134 0.4 2.5
              Jud Buechler 137 0.185 0.461 101.6 0.779 1.5 0.4
              Eric Montross 122 0.215 0.535 98.6 0.011 0.0 2.2
              Brian Cardinal 28 0.220 0.548 98.1 0.018 0.0 0.4
              Kornel David 17 0.245 0.610 95.6 0.224 0.0 0.2
              TEAM 4057 0.204 0.509 100.0 0.470 38.5 43.5

              Dean Oliver
              Journal of Basketball Studies
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