Re: 1961-1962 Test season: MY linear weights formulas.
- --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "danthestatman2002" <danthestatman@h...>
> Results (All players with over 100 SCORE above Replacement Player):Some quick comparisons. Using these weights (with no blks, stls,
> SCO/48 SCOaRP Last Name First Tm Pos
> 39.1 1868 Chamberlain Wilt phw C
> 34.5 1349 Robertson Oscar cin PG
> 31.5 1077 Bellamy Walt chp C
> 30.2 972 Pettit Bob stl C
> 34.2 808 Baylor Elgin lal SF
> 28.5 800 West Jerry lal SG
> 27.2 800 Russell Bill bos C
TOs), and adjusting to BASE and team D - Tim Duncan and Shaq have the
highest SCO/48 at 35.8 and 35.9 respectively in 2002. Duncan had
1372 SCOaRP, Shaq was 1005 (due to lower minutes and missed games).
Garnett was 31.9 and 1048. The next 6 are guards/swing players - all
between 31.1 and 29.2 and between 993 and 848 (Payton, Bryant, Kidd,
McGrady, Pierce, Miller). These guys are obviously helped by no TOs
(especially Kobe, Kidd, and Miller). Webber was 31.9 and 684. So -
except obviously Wilt - Shaq and Duncan of 2002 were better players
than any big men in 1962. Garnett and Webber were as good as Bellamy
and Pettit. The Big O was better than any 2002 player not named Shaq
or Duncan - as was Elgin Baylor when healthy.
Now - when we compute WITH steals, blocks, and assists for the 2002
guys - things reshuffle a bit. I'll post the results when I am
completely done (that pesky guys with multiple teams issue must be
finished). The top 4 remain the same (Duncan, Garnett, Shaq, and
Payton) with Shaq at 36.2 SCO/48 and Duncan at 35.7
The interesting thing is Ben Wallace - who goes from below league
average 18.9 SCO/48 without blocks, steals, and TOs to a very good
26.6 under the complete weights. Of course - that should be
expected. The thing is this could maybe give us a better idea about
defensive specialists like Bill Russell. Ben gained 7.6 per 48 -
Russell could concievably do the same. However after adjustments I
do doubt that Russell would gain THAT much - I'm sure he had more TOs
and less steals than Big Ben - but I could see maybe a gain of +5 per
48. That would put him about 3rd in 1962 in SCOaRP and 4th in
SCO/48. Kirilenko had a an great +4.8 increase from 19.4 to 24.2.
No guard had a major increase - most usually lose a little because of
TOs. The highest TRUE guard that increased was Fred Hoiberg at +2.4
(very low TO total). Stackhouse dropped -3.7, Marbury -3.6, to give
you an idea of the other end of the spectrum.