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Re: predicting bust-out years (and bust years)

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... his ... outside ... Hey, Newman I ll grant you (though his efficiency went down in 2001 a little and, like Willis, it just points to a surprisingly bad
    Message 1 of 20 , Oct 15, 2002
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
      > > >
      > > > Johnny Newman
      > > > yr aj min pct sco. reb ast - total
      > > > 99 35 19 .517 11.2 2.9 1.6 - 16.4
      > > > 00 36 22 .556 16.2 2.9 1.2 - 20.3
      > > > 01 37 25 .531 15.3 3.1 2.0 - 20.6
      > > >
      > >
      > > Johnny Newman? Maybe I have inaccurate numbers for him. I do
      > indeed
      > > have his efficiency staying about where it has been throughout
      his
      > > career -- a pretty good 109 -- but the rate at which he used
      > > possessions declined immensely, from around 18% to 11%. 11%
      > usually
      > > signals end of career.
      >
      > The above data block refers to '99-01, and I guess you are looking
      > at '02.
      > >
      > > > Derek Harper 94-96 (32-34)
      > >
      > > Efficiency went down in '96 pretty bad.
      >
      > NOT!
      >
      > Derek Harper
      > yr age pct sco. reb ast - total
      > 95 32 .482 11.8 2.3 5.4 - 21.3
      > 96 33 .539 13.3 2.8 6.4 - 23.8
      > 97 34 .551 16.2 2.8 4.7 - 24.7
      >
      > You might be thinking of some other Harper?
      >
      > > I'm tired. And hungry. Italian food tonight, some chicken and
      > > pancetta thing. Sounds better than looking at more stats.
      >
      > Not to mention, a hungry statistician is an ugly thing. But
      outside
      > of the Newman and Harper misses, you shot about 80%.

      Hey, Newman I'll grant you (though his efficiency went down in 2001 a
      little and, like Willis, it just points to a surprisingly bad year in
      that bad year for several, 1999).

      But Harper is different. He had more turnovers and fewer assists and
      didn't go to the line as much (relative to FGA) as the previous
      year. You don't seem to track turnovers much as part of your
      preferred stats (at least you don't post them, though I know they go
      in your overall power rating).


      DeanO
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