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Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
    Message 1 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
      > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

      From the article on my website:

      http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

      The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

      Defensive Stops =
      Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
      + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

      Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
      how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
      like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
      course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
      forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
      other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
      weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
      rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
      a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
      NBA level.

      The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
      many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
      our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
      some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
      but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
      again. Grr.

      DeanO
    • Dean Oliver
      ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
      Message 31 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
        > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

        From the article on my website:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

        The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

        Defensive Stops =
        Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
        + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

        Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
        how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
        like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
        course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
        forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
        other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
        weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
        rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
        a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
        NBA level.

        The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
        many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
        our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
        some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
        but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
        again. Grr.

        DeanO
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