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Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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  • Mike G
    ... I still think the over-reliance on MJ last year led to his long minutes which led to his wearing down. This year, it may be different, with Stackhouse
    Message 1 of 31 , Oct 9, 2002
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...> wrote:
      >... one of the interesting predictions we all made here last year
      > was that Jordan would get hurt.

      I still think the over-reliance on MJ last year led to his long
      minutes which led to his wearing down. This year, it may be
      different, with Stackhouse (who is durable if nothing else) along.

      Julius Erving at the end of his career was like the ultimate garbage
      man. Hardly any plays designed for him, but he marauded at will
      amongst Moses, Barkley, etc, and picked up some 15 ppg as loose
      change. Jordan can still do at least that.


      > Why do people think that Van Horn is going to suddenly wake up in
      > Philly? He hasn't shot well whether he was a key cog in the
      offense
      > or a secondary player.

      Here's Van Horn's career shooting and scoring rates:

      98 .508 19.3
      99 .508 22.1
      00 .528 20.5
      01 .519 17.9
      02 .505 18.4

      After the rookie jitters, the '99 anomaly, a couple of good years,
      and one slightly disappointing season last year. I only see that one
      not-so-good entry. In general, within a few pts of the league
      average.

      His rebounds haven't diminished, have even gone up on a per-minute
      basis. Assists have risen from <2 to 2.5 per-36.

      > ... Detroit? ... they really overachieved last year ...

      This sounds like a candidate for a 100% subjective comment. I would
      counter that there is no such thing as an overachieving team. They
      had the parts, and they had the sum of those parts. Enough offense +
      enough defense = Wins.

      >
      > With both Finley and Nowitzki playing over the summer and the
      history
      > of players getting injured after that kind of off-season schedule,
      > who gets hurt first?

      Finley may have something to prove, like 11 other guys we know.
      Nowitzki is young. What bugs me is guys the age of Reggie, or Tim
      Hardaway, going to these affairs.

      Reggie was the worst player on the US Team. In 1992, Jordan was the
      worst player on the team. Big-game guys just don't take these things
      seriously.


      > Easiest pick -- Sacramento won't win close to the 70 games that
      Bibby
      > predicted. By a pretty reliable method, there is at least an 80%
      > chance that they won't do as well as they did last year.

      So you don't think much of their offseason? Keon Clark might have
      something to say. Then again, he may not make up for the aging of
      Vlade, and whatever happens with Webber. And, can Peja recover?
    • Dean Oliver
      ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
      Message 31 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
        > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

        From the article on my website:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

        The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

        Defensive Stops =
        Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
        + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

        Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
        how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
        like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
        course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
        forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
        other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
        weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
        rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
        a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
        NBA level.

        The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
        many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
        our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
        some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
        but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
        again. Grr.

        DeanO
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