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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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  • bchaikin@aol.com
    Do you know what the general decrease in efficiency a player experiences with more touches? I don t have numbers in front of me now but I wonder if you looked
    Message 1 of 31 , Oct 8, 2002
      Do you know what the general decrease in efficiency a player
      experiences with more touches?  I don't have numbers in front of me
      now but I wonder if you looked guys like stackhouse, barros, rex
      chapmsn, steve smith, hornacek, hawkins and other fluctuated in
      efficiency based upon touches/role in offense.

      It varies a lot.  Stackhouse and Iverson are guys who aren't
      efficient but who are at about a constant efficiency without much
      regard to shots taken.  Other guys drop off pretty quickly.  Those
      were charts that I posted long ago and have updated substantially for
      the book.  It's not an easy procedure and there is uncertainty in
      determining it, but I like the results now.  Just to be clear, I also
      looked at how efficiency changed with possessions used, not touches
      since only BobC knows how to estimate them.  They are definitely
      correlated but not equivalent.

      most players produce more stats with an increase in possessions, similar to how someone would increase their stats with more minutes played. simply logical as the player is getting more chances/opportunities either way. so looking at production per possession to normalize the numbers might be one way to solve this...

      however it also depends what you mean by "efficiency". what stats would you use to define efficiency? as an example, if you divide points scored by individual player possessions, you'll get high values for players who have low touches/min but who shot alot per possession and with a high FG percentage with the greatest "efficiency", like mike mitchell in 81-82 and - egads - mel turpin in 85-86....

      what would be your criteria for efficiency?....

      bob chaikin
      bchaikin@...






    • Dean Oliver
      ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
      Message 31 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
        > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

        From the article on my website:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

        The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

        Defensive Stops =
        Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
        + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

        Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
        how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
        like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
        course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
        forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
        other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
        weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
        rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
        a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
        NBA level.

        The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
        many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
        our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
        some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
        but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
        again. Grr.

        DeanO
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