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Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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  • harlanzo
    ... that ... ways ... Do you know what the general decrease in efficiency a player experiences with more touches? I don t have numbers in front of me now but
    Message 1 of 31 , Oct 8, 2002
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...> wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
      >
      > What Rick says about Brent is that he could be as good as Gary
      > Payton, but that Gary gets so many more touches. The problem is
      that
      > there is a lot of counterindication that Brent couldn't touch the
      > ball so much and be as efficient with it as Gary is. There are
      ways
      > to change this, but we'll see if it happens this year.
      >
      > DeanO

      Do you know what the general decrease in efficiency a player
      experiences with more touches? I don't have numbers in front of me
      now but I wonder if you looked guys like stackhouse, barros, rex
      chapmsn, steve smith, hornacek, hawkins and other fluctuated in
      efficiency based upon touches/role in offense.
    • Dean Oliver
      ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
      Message 31 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
        > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

        From the article on my website:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

        The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

        Defensive Stops =
        Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
        + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

        Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
        how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
        like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
        course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
        forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
        other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
        weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
        rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
        a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
        NBA level.

        The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
        many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
        our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
        some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
        but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
        again. Grr.

        DeanO
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